Tipps Fiorentina Genoa Serie A 15/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Fiorentina wins the match

1. The Fiorentina’s home win ratio over their last 5 matches is higher than Genoa’s away win ratio. Fiorentina has won 40% of their home matches, while Genoa has only won 20% of their away matches.

2. The goal scoring and conceding statistics for both teams also favor Fiorentina. Even though the average goals scored per match is lower for Fiorentina (0.6) compared to Genoa (1.2), Fiorentina has a better defensive percentage, conceding only 0.8 goals on average per match, compared to Genoa’s 1.4.

3. The calculated probability of Fiorentina winning is 48.42%, which is the most likely scenario among the three possible outcomes (Fiorentina win, draw, Genoa win), offering a potentially good return with odds of 1.88.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. Recent goal history: In the last 5 home matches of Fiorentina, the total number of goals has exceeded 2.5 only once, indicating a trend towards low-scoring matches. Similarly, in the last 5 away matches of Genoa, the total number of goals has exceeded 2.5 only once.

2. Goal averages: The goal averages for each team also suggest a low-scoring match. Fiorentina at home scores an average of 0.6 goals per match and concedes 0.8 goals, while Genoa away scores an average of 1.2 goals per match and concedes 1.4 goals. These combined averages do not exceed 2.5 goals per match.

3. Offered odds: The odds offered for under 2.5 goals in the match are 1.75, which also demonstrates that bookmakers predict a low-scoring match. This is supported by the very high probability (84.21% success rate) for under 3.5 goals in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. The offensive potential of Fiorentina at home is relatively low at 21%, indicating a limited probability of this team scoring. Moreover, in their last 5 home matches, Fiorentina has only scored 7 goals, averaging 1.4 goals per game.
2. Genoa is not particularly strong in attack away from home, averaging 0.8 goals per match. In their last 5 away matches, they have scored 4 goals, which is less than one goal per game.
3. The calculated probabilities for the match favor the scenario where both teams do not score – with a 53.68% chance of success, higher than the probability of both teams scoring (46.32%).

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Fiorentina 1-1 Genoa

1. Genoa has a strong tendency to draw matches when playing away (60% of their last 5 away games ended in a draw).

2. Fiorentina has a relatively solid defense at home, conceding on average only 0.8 goals per match. Furthermore, Genoa’s offensive performances away from home (1.2 goals per match) are in line with this level of defense.

3. Both teams have shown a low frequency of high-scoring matches. The goal market prediction (over 3.5 goals at odds of 3.75) as well as the average goals scored in the teams’ recent matches also support the hypothesis of a low-scoring game.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

-Fiorentina has a 40% home win rate.
-With only a 20% away win rate, Genoa is less successful.
-Fiorentina has scored 7 goals in their last 5 home matches, while Genoa has scored only 4.
-Defensively, both teams are similar with Fiorentina conceding 8 goals and Genoa 4.
-In terms of offense, Genoa has a higher scoring rate (43%) compared to Fiorentina (21%).
-There is a 46.32% chance of both teams scoring in the match.
-The probability of Fiorentina winning the match is estimated at 48.42%, a draw at 31.05%, and a Genoa win at 20.53%.
-There is a 79.47% chance of the match being won by Fiorentina or ending in a draw.
-The scenario of a Genoa win or a draw is less likely at 51.58%.
-The match has a higher chance (71.05%) of ending with more than 1.5 goals.
-More than 2.5 goals is possible, with a probability of 43.16%.
-The probability of the match ending with less than 3.5 goals is very high at 84.21%.
-Fiorentina’s recent home performances have been inconsistent: 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss.
-Genoa, away from home, has had a draw and a loss against top-tier teams like Juventus and Inter Milan.

The potential number of goals

Fiorentina, at home, shows poor form with only a 40% win rate in the last 5 matches. The team seems to lack offensive efficiency with just 7 goals scored. Their defense is also quite leaky, conceding 8 goals.

Genoa, playing away, has a 20% win rate in the last 5 games. However, the team appears more consistent in their performances with a 60% draw rate. A total of 4 goals scored and conceded reflects a certain balance.

Statistically, Genoa notably has a higher offensive potential of 43% compared to Fiorentina’s 21%. Fiorentina’s defense is slightly weaker than Genoa’s, with a defensive potential of 29% against 50%.

The probabilities slightly favor Fiorentina with a 48.42% chance of winning the match. However, there is a high likelihood that the match ends in a draw or with a Fiorentina win, with a probability of 79.47%.

As for the number of goals, it is more likely to have less than 3.5 goals in the match with a probability of 84.21%. This suggests a tight match with few goals.

Based on these data, a cautious result could be a draw or a Fiorentina win, with probably fewer than 3.5 goals in the match.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, this match between Fiorentina and Genoa promises to be intense and tight. The analysis suggests a slight advantage for Fiorentina, especially due to its home performances. However, Genoa should not be underestimated, showing an ability to resist opposing teams, especially away from home.

In terms of sports betting, the most obvious bet seems to be a win for Fiorentina or a draw. That being said, the odds also indicate a strong likelihood of seeing a match with fewer than 3.5 goals. Bettors may therefore consider a bet on the exact score, such as a 1-1, which could offer an interesting value bet.

Lastly, it is important to remember that, despite all these analyses and forecasts, the final result of a football match is subject to many unpredictable factors. It is therefore recommended to always bet responsibly and thoughtfully.