Tipps Fiorentina Plzen UEFA Europa Conference League 18/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Fiorentina wins the match

1. The probability of success: The probability of Fiorentina winning the match is 73.94%, which is significantly higher than that for Plzen (11.17%) or a draw (14.89%). This high probability highlights the fact that Fiorentina is considered the favorite in this match.
2. Fiorentina’s home performance: In their last 5 home matches, Fiorentina has shown a strong performance with 2 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss. Furthermore, Fiorentina has scored more goals at home (7) than Plzen has scored away (5).
3. Offensive and defensive potential: Despite Fiorentina’s offensive potential (21%) being slightly lower than Plzen’s (36%), their defensive potential is higher (29% for Fiorentina compared to 21% for Plzen). This indicates that Fiorentina is capable of effectively defending their goal during the match and is able to win.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

1. Recent goal history: Both teams have a series of matches with a total number of goals over 2.5 in their recent encounters. For example, in their last 5 outings, Fiorentina scored 7 goals and conceded 8, while Plzen scored 8 goals and conceded 10. This demonstrates a tendency for high-scoring matches.

2. Betting probability: Betting data indicates a success probability of 54.26% for over 2.5 goals in the match, which is a moderately strong chance.

3. Plzen’s away performances: Plzen has an offensive potential of 36% in their away matches, scoring an average of 1 goal per game, which helps increase the total goals in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Past performance data shows that both teams have a tendency to score goals in their respective matches; Fiorentina has scored 7 goals in their last 5 home matches and Plzen has scored 8 goals in their last 5 away matches.

2. Both teams have also shown defensive weaknesses by conceding goals in their previous matches. Fiorentina has conceded 8 goals at home in their last 5 matches, while Plzen has conceded 10 goals away in their last 5 matches as well.

3. By examining the specific results of their previous matches, it can be seen that both Fiorentina and Plzen have frequently been involved in matches where both teams have found the back of the net. For example, in three of Fiorentina’s last five home matches, both teams have scored, as well as for Plzen in two of their last five away matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

Bet on the exact result

Fiorentina 1-1 Plzen

1. The probability of scoring for each team: According to the provided statistics, Fiorentina and Plzen have average goals per match of 0.6 and 1.0 respectively. These numbers align precisely with the predicted score of 1-1.

2. Draw history: Fiorentina’s recent home matches have resulted in a draw 20% of the time, while Plzen has drawn 40% of their away matches. These percentages further support the forecast of a draw.

3. Defensive trends of both teams: Both teams have shown they can defend well, with Fiorentina having a 29% defensive performance at home and Plzen with a 21% defensive performance away. This suggests the match could be more defensive than offensive, favoring a low-scoring outcome like 1-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Fiorentina has won 40% of their home matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding 8 goals. Not impressive, but decent.

Plzen has won 60% of their away matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 10 goals. Solid defensively.

The average goals per match for Fiorentina at home is 0.6, with a defense conceding 0.8 goals. Offensive potential of only 21%, defensive of 29%.

Plzen scores an average of 1 goal away and concedes 0.6, offering an offensive potential of 36% and defensive of 21%.

Statistics suggest Fiorentina has a 73.94% chance of winning. The odds also favor Fiorentina: 1.41 to 7.90 for Plzen.

The match could also head towards a draw: probability of 14.89%, odds of 4.70.

75% chance of seeing more than 1.5 goals during the match, odds of 1.26. Less likely for more than 2.5 goals, with 54.26% chances, odds of 1.83.

Will both teams score? 44.68% chance, odds of 2.05. More likely than not to not score: 55.32% chance, odds of 1.78.

Fiorentina recently defeated Atalanta and Lazio at home, but also drew against Roma and lost to AC Milan. Plzen won against Karviná, FK Jablonec, and Pardubice away.

Prediction: tight match, but Fiorentina seems to have the edge due to their strong home play. Probably under 2.5 goals.

The potential number of goals

Fiorentina is less successful at home with a 40% win rate and an average of 0.6 goals per match. Defensively, they concede more goals with an average of 0.8. On the other hand, Plzen shows better form away from home with a 60% win rate and an average of one goal per match, while conceding fewer goals (0.6 on average).

Fiorentina seems more likely to win the match, with a probability of 73.94%. Additionally, less than 1.5 goals are expected in the match, with odds of 4.00, and a 75% probability of seeing more than 1.5 goals. The probability of both teams scoring is 44.68%, slightly lower than the probability of them not scoring (55.32%).

Looking at their recent matches, Fiorentina tends to have close scores at home (Fiorentina 1 – 0 Atalanta Bergamo, Fiorentina 1 – 2 AC Milan). Plzen, on the other hand, has managed to keep clean sheets in their away matches (Jablonec 0 – 3 Plzen, Karvina 0 – 0 Plzen).

In conclusion, we can anticipate a potentially close match, with a slight lean towards a Fiorentina victory but with a low scoreline.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, when considering all the statistics, recent scores, and team form, it appears that Fiorentina has the advantage in this match, particularly due to their strong home record. However, there is also a high likelihood that it will be a low-scoring match, reflecting the defensive tendency of these two teams.

A promising bet could be to wager on a Fiorentina win with under 2.5 goals in the match. Additionally, a BTTS (Both Teams To Score) bet could be an interesting option to consider as both teams have shown an ability to score goals in their matches.

Nevertheless, every bettor should always consider their own analysis, odds movement, and gut feeling before placing a bet. Sports betting always involves an element of luck and nothing is ever 100% certain. It is always recommended to bet responsibly.