Tipps Fluminense Bahia Serie A 04/08/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Fluminense wins the match.

1. Fluminense has a better home performance with 80% of matches ending in a win or draw compared to Bahia BA, which only has a 40% win or draw rate away from home.
2. The calculated probability of the match ending in either a draw or a Fluminense win is 73.74%, which is significantly higher than the probability of Bahia BA winning the match (26.26%).
3. Despite having a lower offensive potential than Bahia BA, Fluminense has shown a better defense at home, conceding an average of 0.4 goals per match compared to Bahia BA’s 1.2 goals away from home. This difference could be crucial and influence the final outcome of the match.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5

1. Based on the last 5 matches, Fluminense has an average of 0.8 goals scored at home and Bahia BA has an average of 1.2 goals scored away, resulting in a combined total of 2 goals per match, favoring the Under 2.5 goals prediction.

2. Fluminense’s recent form at home shows a trend towards low-scoring matches. Four out of their last five home matches have had fewer than 2.5 goals.

3. Bahia BA has also displayed a strong trend towards having fewer than 2.5 goals in their recent away matches, with four of their last five games not exceeding this total.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. The scoring statistics show that both teams have a strong ability to score goals in their respective matches. Fluminense has scored an average of 0.8 goals at home, while Bahia BA has scored an average of 1.2 goals away.

2. On the other hand, both teams also have defensive weaknesses. Fluminense has conceded an average of 0.4 goals at home, while Bahia BA has conceded an average of 1.2 goals away.

3. The recent matches of both teams also show that they both tend to score and concede goals in their matches. This reinforces the likelihood of both teams scoring in their encounter.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Fluminense wins the match – 1.30

Bet on the exact result

Fluminense 1-1 Bahia BA

1. Match History: In their last 5 home matches, Fluminense has shown a clear tendency to draw (60% of cases), and in Bahia BA’s recent away matches, we see average scores close to 1 goal for each team, including a recent 1-1 draw.
2. Goal Statistics: Fluminense averages 0.8 goals per match at home, while Bahia BA averages 1.2 goals per match away, which aligns with a 1-1 score when considering the averages. Additionally, among a range of possible outcomes, “under 2.5 goals in the match” has relatively low odds and attractive odds, suggesting a low-scoring result.
3. Result Probabilities: The draw has a reasonably high probability of 30.17%. With both teams having offensive potential of less than 50%, this could facilitate a low and even score.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Fluminense has a real issue at home. They only win one out of five matches. And their offensive record is poor, with only 3 goals in 5 matches. Their defense is also struggling, conceding 5 goals.

Bahia BA is not doing any better away. They have only won one of their last 5 matches. They have managed to score 6 times but have also conceded 8 goals.

The match therefore seems very balanced. The probability of a draw is much higher than the other outcomes. Indeed, according to the numbers, there is a 30.17% chance of a draw.

However, with a home offensive potential of 29%, Fluminense still remains slightly favored with a 43.58% chance of winning. On Bahia’s side, despite a better offensive potential of 43%, they do not seem capable of winning away with only a 26.26% chance.

As for the number of goals in the match, it is more likely that there will be less than 3.5 goals, with an impressive probability of 89.94%.

In conclusion, a bet on a draw or a Fluminense victory seems to be the safest according to these statistics, with a probability of 73.74%. However, this match looks to be low-scoring.

The potential number of goals

Fluminense has only won 20% of its home matches with an average of 0.8 goals per game. Their defense is not much better, conceding an average of 1 goal per match.
Bahia BA, on the other hand, has only won 20% of its away matches with an average of 1.2 goals per game, conceding the same amount.
The probability of Fluminense winning is 43.58% with odds of 2.10, while Bahia BA’s probability is 26.26% with odds of 3.50. A draw is unlikely at 30.17% with odds of 3.40.
Betting on less than 1.5 goals is risky with odds of 3.20. The chances of more than 1.5 goals are higher at 72.07% with odds of 1.36.
It should also be noted that both teams have scored 52.51% of the time, with odds of 1.85.
Based on this data, Fluminense seems slightly favored, but a match with at least 2 goals is more likely. It’s up to you to choose your side!

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on the compilation and analysis of recent statistical data from Fluminense and Bahia BA, we can say that the match between these two teams is likely to be a tight one with a limited number of goals. Fluminense seems to have an edge due to their strong home performance and remarkable defense, making them a slightly favored choice for a win or draw.

On the other hand, despite having superior offensive potential, Bahia BA appears to be at a disadvantage when playing away. Additionally, the trend of both teams scoring and conceding goals in their matches suggests that both teams are likely to score during the game.

Ultimately, the bet “Fluminense to win or draw” seems to offer good value considering the analyzed statistics and trends. Given the tendency of both teams to play matches with fewer than 2.5 goals, a bet on “under 2.5 goals” could also be appealing.

In conclusion, while sports betting remains an area of uncertainty, detailed analysis and a good understanding of trends and statistics can greatly assist in making informed choices when it comes to betting on football matches. However, it is always recommended to bet responsibly.