Tipps Frosinone Carrarese Serie B 05/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Frosinone wins the match”

1. Frosinone has a higher probability of winning the match (48.69%) compared to Carrarese (19.37%), indicating that Frosinone has a slightly better performance.
2. Carrarese has not won any of their last 5 away matches, suggesting weakness on the team’s side when playing outside their home turf, which could favor Frosinone being the home team.
3. Both teams have similar defense (Frosinone 64%, Carrarese 64%) however, Frosinone exhibits a slightly lower offensive rate than Carrarese (Frosinone 21%, Carrarese 36%). This may result in additional pressure on Carrarese, who, considering their recent matches, seems to struggle in effectively defending themselves away from home.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. The performance statistics of both teams show that they both have a low offensive potential; Frosinone scores an average of 0.6 goals per home match while Carrarese scores an average of 1 goal per away match. This is a strong argument in favor of a total number of goals under 2.5 for this match.

2. Frosinone’s recent home performances show that they have a low average of goals scored per match and also tend to concede more goals. This suggests a low-scoring match is likely.

3. Carrarese’s last five away matches have also shown a low success rate in terms of goals scored, further emphasizing the argument for a total number of goals under 2.5 in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Statistics show that both Frosinone and Carrarese concede a lot of goals in their matches, averaging 1.8 and 1.8 goals per game respectively. This suggests a high probability that both teams will score in their match.

2. In terms of offensive potential, although Frosinone has a low rate of 21%, Carrarese has a quite high rate of 36%. This means that each team has a chance of scoring during the match, making the prediction “Both teams to score: Yes” more likely.

3. Analyzing the last five home matches of Frosinone and away matches of Carrarese, it can be seen that both teams have managed to score in some games. While their performance may not be consistent, the presence of goals in several of these matches strengthens the idea that the prediction “Both teams to score: Yes” is reasonable.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

“Frosinone 1-1 Carrarese”

1. The offensive and defensive capabilities of Frosinone and Carrarese point towards a low-scoring draw: on average, Frosinone scores 0.6 goals per match and concedes 1.8 goals at home, while Carrarese scores 1 goal and concedes 1.8 goals away. The likelihood of both teams scoring is close to 50%, indicating a potential draw.

2. Recent home form for Frosinone and away form for Carrarese further support this scenario: Frosinone has had two 1-1 and 2-2 draws in their last 5 home matches, whereas Carrarese, although not securing any draws in their last 5 away matches, has managed to score in all of them.

3. The odds also back up the likelihood of a 1-1 scoreline: the probability of a draw is estimated at around 32% and the scenario of under 2.5 goals has a relatively high probability of occurrence. This combination strengthens the notion that a 1-1 result is one of the most probable exact score outcomes.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Frosinone shows weakness at home with 0% wins and 40% draws. They have scored 3 goals but conceded 6, indicating a weak defense. Carrarese also struggles away, with no wins or draws, 5 goals scored against 8 conceded. Their offensive potential at 36% is higher than Frosinone’s at 21%. According to probabilities, Frosinone has a 48.69% chance of winning the match, while Carrarese only has 19.37%, with a 31.94% chance of a draw. The match leans towards less than 3.5 goals with a probability of 77.49%. The potential for over 2.5 goals is 42.41% to consider for an insight into possible goal numbers. Both teams scoring has a 50.79% chance. Based on this data, Frosinone seems to have the advantage, but in a match likely to have few goals. Defenses should be highlighted in this encounter. However, recent history shows significant defeats for both teams, suggesting a tight and potentially low-scoring match.

The potential number of goals

Frosinone, at home, struggles to turn their matches into wins, with 0% wins and only 40% draws. The team has scored few goals with a total of 3, against 6 goals conceded. Carrarese, away from home, doesn’t fare any better, with a 0% win rate or draws, 5 goals scored, but 8 goals conceded.

Offensively, Frosinone is not very efficient at home, averaging 0.6 goals per match, with an offensive potential of only 21%. On the other hand, their defense is more solid with a potential of 64%. Carrarese scores more with an average of 1 goal per match. Their offensive potential is 36% and defense 64%.

As for the prediction, Frosinone is more likely to win the match with a probability of 48.69%. A safe bet would be a draw or a Frosinone win, with a success probability of 80.63%. In terms of goals, the match is expected to be quite low-scoring, with the most likely option being under 1.5 goals, with a probability of 71.2%.

In conclusion, we could expect a close match with few goals and strong chances of seeing Frosinone come out on top or a draw.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, the analysis of this match between Frosinone and Carrarese suggests several key elements to consider for betting. The chances of victory seem to slightly favor Frosinone, but the recent mediocre performances of both teams indicate that a draw should not be ruled out. Furthermore, although Carrarese reveals a higher offensive rate than Frosinone, their tendency to concede goals during their away matches could put pressure on them defensively. Also, a match with less than 2.5 goals seems more likely, as both teams have shown offensive limitations in their previous games. However, despite a trend towards a low score, statistics indicate that it is still likely that both teams will score in this match. Finally, considering these factors and the associated probabilities, a bet offering interesting “value bet” would be a draw. All things considered, a prediction of an exact score of 1-1 seems in line with the performances and statistics of each team.