Tipps Genoa Bologna Serie A 19/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Bologna wins the match.

1. Bologna’s statistics in their last 5 matches are more favorable than Genoa’s. Indeed, Bologna wins in 20% of cases and draws in 40% of cases, while Genoa wins in 0% of cases and draws in 40% of cases.
2. Bologna’s defensive potential is superior to Genoa’s. On average, Bologna concedes 0.8 goals per away match compared to Genoa’s 2.4 goals at home. This indicates that Bologna has a better defense and is therefore more likely to win.
3. The calculated success probabilities also favor Bologna. Bologna has a success probability of 46.03% to win the match, which is significantly higher than other scenarios (26.46% for Genoa’s win and 27.51% for a draw).

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. The offensive potential is low on both sides: Genoa and Bologna have both scored an average of 0.6 goals per match in their last 5 respective games, suggesting they may struggle to score.

2. Defensive performances are decent, especially for Genoa at home with an average of 2.4 goals conceded per match, indicating they are capable of limiting the opponent’s goal tally.

3. Match histories suggest low scores: Looking at the last 5 home games of Genoa and the last 5 away games of Bologna, it is evident that in the majority of these matches, fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Genoa’s home statistics show that in their last 5 matches, they have failed to win once and have conceded more goals than they have scored (6 goals conceded against 4 scored). Their low offensive potential of 21% and high defensive potential of 86% suggest a low probability of them scoring a goal.

2. Bologna, in their last 5 away matches, has displayed an offensive weakness equivalent to Genoa’s, with an average of 0.6 goals per game. Their defensive potential of 29% is also below average, indicating they are more likely to keep a clean sheet.

3. The odds indicate a higher probability (50.79%) of both teams not scoring in this match. Furthermore, recent match statistics support this scenario, with Genoa failing to score in two of their last five home matches, and Bologna not scoring in two of their last five away matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Genoa 1-1 Bologna

1. Based on recent statistics, Genoa has a fairly balanced record at home where they have managed to draw in 40% of cases, and have scored at least one goal in 60% of their last 5 matches.

2. On the other hand, Bologna also often achieves draws in their away games with a total of 40% in the last 5 matches on the road. Additionally, they have managed to score at least one goal in 60% of these matches.

3. The match result predictions indicate a slightly higher probability of a draw than a Genoa win (27.51% vs. 26.46%), predicting a close match. Furthermore, the probability of a match with less than 2.5 goals is high (probability at 1.62), suggesting a low-scoring game.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Genoa is not showing great form at home, with no wins in the last 5 matches. Furthermore, the ‘Rossoblu’ score few goals, with only 4 goals in 5 games, and concede an average of 2.4 goals per match.

Bologna is also not very strong away from home, with only one win in the last 5 matches. Its attack is also quiet (0.6 goals on average per game) but its defense is more solid (0.8 goals on average).

According to the probabilities, a favorable result for Bologna seems more likely, with 46.03% compared to 26.46% for Genoa. A draw is the second most probable result, with 27.51%.

As for the goals, it is more likely that the match will have less than 3.5 goals (87.83% probability). However, the score could go either way, as both teams have nearly equal chances of scoring (49.21% vs 50.79%).

In conclusion, Bologna is favored, and the match may not be particularly high-scoring, although both teams have a chance to score.

The potential number of goals

The Genoa has not won any of its last 5 home matches, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. Bologna, playing away, has won 20% of its matches with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded.

The offensive potential of Genoa at home is 21%, with an average of 0.6 goals per match. On the other hand, Bologna has the same offensive potential when playing away.

Defensively, Genoa is more vulnerable with a percentage of 86% compared to Bologna’s 29%.

The probabilities suggest an advantage for Bologna with a 46.03% chance of winning, against 26.46% for Genoa.

It is more likely that the match will end with less than 3.5 goals, with a probability of 87.83%.

With both teams displaying almost identical probabilities of scoring, a bet on both teams not scoring could be interesting.

Overall, this match seems to be a close encounter with a possible advantage for Bologna, and a probably low number of goals.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Concluding this analysis, we can rely on several points to formulate our predictions. The statistics combined with the current form of both teams suggest a victory for Bologna. However, the offensive potential of both teams is rather low, indicating a likely total of goals under 2.5. Considering the defensive performances and match histories, the bet that both teams will score is not favored.

The “value bet” seems to be the draw. Despite statistics favoring Bologna, the past performances of Genoa and Bologna show a strong tendency towards draws. Therefore, a bet on the exact score could be Genoa 1-1 Bologna.

Overall, this match promises to be tight, with a slight advantage for Bologna, but a fairly marked tendency for a draw. The number of goals is likely to be low, and the bet that both teams will not score could be an attractive option. It would be wise for bettors to consider these factors when placing their bets on this match.