Tipps Gremio Fortaleza EC Serie A 05/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Gremio RS wins the match

1. The statistics of Gremio RS at home show a strong trend towards achieving favorable results. They have won 40% of their last 5 home matches and drawn in 60% of cases. This demonstrates a strong ability to avoid defeat at home and supports the observed prediction.

2. Fortaleza EC has shown a weak performance away from home, winning only 20% of their last 5 away matches and drawing 20% of the time. Compared to Gremio RS’s home performance, it is logical to predict a draw or a Gremio RS victory.

3. The combined probability for a draw or a Gremio RS victory is 76.84%, which is significantly higher than the success probability for a Fortaleza EC win (23.16%). This suggests that the odds are significantly in favor of a draw or a Gremio RS victory.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The offensive and defensive statistics of Gremio RS at home average 1.6 goals scored per match and 1.8 goals conceded per match, which is relatively low considering an assumption of over 2.5 goals.

2. The offensive and defensive statistics of Fortaleza EC away from home are even lower, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per match, indicating once again a trend towards matches with fewer goals.

3. The recent home matches of Gremio RS and away matches of Fortaleza EC have rarely seen more than 2.5 goals per game, reinforcing the idea that this encounter is likely to be low-scoring.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Performance history: In their last 5 matches, Gremio RS and Fortaleza EC have shown that they can be effective in front of goal by each scoring numerous goals. Gremio RS averages 1.6 goals per home match and Fortaleza EC averages 1.2 goals per away match, indicating that both teams have enough offensive capability to score at least one goal each.

2. Defensive statistics: Both teams tend to concede goals, with Gremio RS conceding 1.8 goals per home match and Fortaleza EC conceding 1.4 goals per away match. The observed defensive weaknesses on both sides seem likely to result in both teams scoring during the match.

3. Probabilities: The calculated probability of both teams scoring is 51.05%, slightly higher than the probability of both teams not scoring (48.95%). This slight leaning towards “yes” for the “both teams to score” option can be a strong argument in favor of this prediction.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Gremio RS 1-1 Fortaleza EC

1. Gremio RS’s home performances show a trend of scoring and conceding goals (8 goals scored and 9 conceded in the last 5 matches) with an offensive potential of 57% and defensive potential of 64%. Similarly, Fortaleza EC has also shown an ability to score and concede goals away from home (4 goals scored and 5 conceded in the last 5 matches), indicating a high likelihood that each team can score at least one goal.

2. The study of betting probabilities indicates that a draw is a fairly likely outcome (33.16% chance), which reinforces the prediction of a 1-1 scoreline. Furthermore, the “both teams to score” option has a success probability of 51.05%, supporting the idea of a draw with both teams scoring.

3. Finally, the histories of the recent matches also show a number of goals typically ranging from 2 to 3 goals per match for both teams, reinforcing the idea that the scoreline could end up at 1-1. Additionally, the bet “under 3.5 goals in the match” has a very high success probability of 78.95%.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Gremio RS has recently shown quite solid performances at home. In 5 matches, they won 2 and drew 3. They scored 8 goals and conceded 9. On the other hand, Fortaleza EC struggled away from home, winning only one match in their last 5. They scored just 4 goals while conceding 5.

Gremio RS have demonstrated an attacking potential of 57%, averaging 1.6 goals per match. Fortaleza EC, on the other hand, have a lower offensive potential of less than 43%, scoring only an average of 1.2 goals per match. In terms of defense, Gremio RS have a potential of 64%, while Fortaleza EC have a potential of 50%.

The betting probabilities indicate that Gremio RS have a 43.68% chance of winning the match, while a draw has a 33.16% chance. Fortaleza EC only have a 23.16% chance of winning. In terms of goals, there is a 69.47% chance that the match will have more than 1.5 goals, but only a 44.74% chance of there being more than 2.5 goals.

Looking at the teams’ recent matches, Gremio RS tends to score goals at home, while Fortaleza EC struggles to score away. The probability of success if both teams score in the match is 51.05%, but there is an almost equal chance of 48.95% that both teams will not score.

Based on these statistics, one could expect a match with an average number of goals, probably in favor of Gremio RS.

The potential number of goals

Gremio RS shows potential at home, with a win rate of 40% and a draw rate of 60%. They have scored 8 goals, averaging 1.6 goals per match. However, they have conceded 9 goals, indicating a vulnerable defense.

Fortaleza EC, on the other hand, struggles away from home, winning only 20% of the time. They have scored 4 goals, averaging 1.2 goals, and have conceded 5 goals.

The probability of Gremio RS winning is at 43.68%, with a draw also possible at 33.16%. In contrast, Fortaleza EC has a lower win probability at 23.16%.

There is a trend towards matches with less than 3.5 goals, with a success probability of 78.95%. The risk of a match with more than 4.5 goals is low with a probability of 95.26%.

Overall, Gremio RS seems to have the advantage, especially considering their offensive potential and average goals scored. However, a match with less than 3.5 goals appears to be a safer prediction.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, statistics and historical data suggest a dominance of Gremio RS in this Serie A match against Fortaleza EC. With a recent impressive home performance, and Fortaleza EC’s weakness away from home, it is likely that the match will end in a victory or draw for Gremio RS, with an approximate score of 1-1. This is largely due to Gremio RS’s strong tendency to draw at home and Fortaleza EC’s difficulty in winning away.

However, the prediction could also lean towards a low-scoring match considering the defensive and offensive performances of both teams. Betting on under 2.5 goals seems to be a safe option. At the same time, both teams have shown offensive skill in scoring, so a bet on both teams to score could also yield favorable results.

Ultimately, it is important to emphasize that these predictions are based on statistics and historical data, and football match results can be unpredictable. It is therefore recommended to always bet responsibly.