Tipps Guadalajara Chivas Mazatlán Liga MX 21/07/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Guadalajara wins the match.

1. Home Performance of Guadalajara: Guadalajara has an impressive home performance with a 60% win rate in their last 5 matches. They have scored a total of 6 goals in 5 matches, showing an effective offensive performance.

2. Away Performance of Mazatlán: Mazatlán has a less impressive away performance with a win rate of only 20% in their last 5 away matches. They also tend to concede more goals away from home.

3. Betting Odds: The betting odds strongly favor a Guadalajara victory with a success probability of 64.71%, which is much higher than the 13.37% probability for a Mazatlán victory.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The performances of Guadalajara at home and Mazatlán away show that they average less than 2.5 goals per match (0.8 goals per match for Guadalajara at home and 0.8 goals per match for Mazatlán away).

2. The offensive potential of both teams is rather low, with Guadalajara having a 29% offensive potential at home and Mazatlán having the same percentage away, suggesting that it is more likely to see less than 2.5 goals in the match.

3. By looking at the previous results of both teams, we can see that in Guadalajara’s last 5 home matches, 4 ended with less than 2.5 goals, and for Mazatlán away, 3 of their last 5 matches finished with less than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Guadalajara tends to play a defensive game at home. In their last 5 home matches, they haven’t conceded any goals in 60% of the games (3 out of 5). This shows they have a solid defensive organization.
2. Mazatlán struggles to score away from home. In their last 5 away matches, they have failed to score in 40% of the games (2 out of 5). Their offensive potential away from home is weak.
3. Statistics suggest that matches where Guadalajara plays at home tend to be low-scoring. It has been observed that the success rate for a match with less than 1.5 goals is 74.87%, indicating that matches tend to be goal-shy.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match”

Bet on the exact result

Guadalajara 1-1 Mazatlan

1. The offensive potential of Guadalajara and Mazatlán is relatively similar, around 0.8 goals scored per match, which leaves a possibility for each team to score a goal during the match.
2. At home, Guadalajara concedes on average 1 goal per match while away, Mazatlán scores an average of 0.8 goals per match. This gives a fairly strong probability that Mazatlán will be able to score at least one goal in this away game.
3. Recent statistics show a tendency towards low scores, especially in Guadalajara’s home matches with an average of less than 2.5 goals scored in total and probabilities of more than 1.5 goals in the match at 74.87%, which supports the idea of a final score of 1-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Guadalajara has a good home performance, with a 60% win rate in the last 5 matches. Scoring 6 goals and conceding 8, they have an average of 0.8 goals per match. Their offensive potential is 29% and defensive is 36%.

Mazatlán struggles away from home, winning only 20% of their last 5 matches. They have scored 5 goals, conceded 7, with an average of 0.8 goals per match. Their offensive and defensive potential is 29% and 50% respectively.

The probabilities favor Guadalajara: 64.71% chance of winning the match. The draw or Guadalajara win option has a success probability of 86.63%.

Regarding goals, there is a 74.87% chance of seeing more than 1.5 goals in the match and 94.65% for less than 4.5 goals. Thus, it is likely to be a low-scoring match.

Analyzing previous encounters, Guadalajara seems strong defensively, while Mazatlán struggles to score away from home.

In summary, Guadalajara appears to be the favorite. However, in football, nothing is ever certain.

The potential number of goals

Guadalajara is strong at home, with a 60% win rate. They have scored 6 goals in 5 matches, but conceded 8. Their defense appears to be vulnerable.

Mazatlán has only won 20% of their away matches, and has scored 5 times. They have a weak defense with 7 goals conceded.

Guadalajara averages 0.8 goals scored per match and concedes 1 goal, with an offensive potential of 29% and defensive potential of 36%.

Mazatlán has the same offensive potential away, but a weaker defense with 1.4 goals conceded per match and a defensive potential of 50%.

There is a 64.71% chance of Guadalajara winning, with odds of 1.55.

There is a 13.37% chance of Mazatlán winning, with odds of 5.50.

There is a 74.87% chance of there being more than 1.5 goals, with odds of 1.28.

There is an 82.35% chance of there being less than 3.5 goals, with odds of 1.33.

In 52.94% of cases, both teams do not score, with odds of 1.83.

Based on this information, we can expect a relatively low-scoring game, with a high likelihood of Guadalajara winning at home.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, considering Guadalajara and Mazatlán’s past performances, previous match statistics, goal trends, and betting odds, it seems that the most profitable and sensible bet would be to wager on a Guadalajara win with a total of goals under 2.5.

It is also more likely that both teams will not score, given their respective goal averages and the trend for Guadalajara’s home matches and Mazatlán’s away matches to be under 2.5 goals.

For the exact score, a prediction of 1-1 could potentially offer value, based on both teams’ goal trends and calculated probability. However, this contradicts the prediction of a Guadalajara win as stated earlier. Therefore, use this information with caution.

It is important to remember that sports betting does not guarantee a win. Each bet carries its own degree of risk, which should be carefully evaluated before placing a bet. The teams’ current performances, physical and mental conditions, as well as motivations, also significantly impact the outcome of a football match. Ultimately, sports betting remains an entertainment activity that should be done responsibly.