Tipps Guimaraes Mlada Boleslav UEFA Europa Conference League 07/11/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Guimaraes wins the match”

1. The offensive potential of Guimaraes, especially at home, is higher than that of Mlada Boleslav. Guimaraes averages 1.8 goals per home match, compared to Mlada Boleslav’s 1.4 goals per away match.
2. Guimaraes’ recent home performances also indicate a higher likelihood of victory. They have won 60% of their last 5 home matches, while Mlada Boleslav has only won 40% of their away matches.
3. The odds also heavily favor Guimaraes, with a 74.74% probability of winning the match. In contrast, the likelihood of Mlada Boleslav winning the match is only 7.22%.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“More than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. Offensive and defensive statistics: At home, Guimaraes scores an average of 1.8 goals per match and concedes an average of 1.2 goals per match, indicating an attacking style of play. Additionally, Mlada Boleslav scores an average of 1.4 goals per match and concedes an average of 1 goal per match away from home, giving us an average of 3.2 goals per match – over 2.5 goals.

2. Score history: In recent match history, there have been several matches with a total number of goals exceeding 2.5. For example, Guimaraes had a 3-1 match against Celje and a 2-2 match against Boavista. Mlada Boleslav also had a 2-2 match against Bohemians and a 1-3 match against Spartak Polička.

3. Betting probabilities: The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match is 58.25%, which is higher than other similar options like under 2.5 goals. This indicates that the over 2.5 goals option is favored based on the match odds.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. The analysis of past performances shows that Guimaraes, playing at home, has a relatively solid defense, having conceded only 9 goals in 5 matches, and Mlada Boleslav has a relatively weak attack away from home, scoring 7 goals in 5 matches. This suggests that Mlada Boleslav may struggle to score.

2. Based on the provided probabilities, Guimaraes has a high chance of winning the match with a probability of 74.74%. This team also has a 92.78% probability of winning or drawing the match, indicating that their defense might be able to hold up and prevent goals from Mlada Boleslav.

3. Finally, the probability of both teams not scoring is slightly higher than both teams scoring, at 50.52% versus 49.48%. Although the difference is minimal, it slightly favors the option where both teams fail to score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Guimaraes 2-1 Mlada Boleslav

1. Home and Away Team Performance: Guimaraes has shown strong performance at home in their last 5 matches, winning in 60% of cases. Additionally, they have scored 8 goals while conceding 9, indicating both offensive and defensive potential. On the other hand, Mlada Boleslav, despite having an average performance away, tends to concede more goals than they score.

2. Average Score Per Match: Based on the average score per match, Guimaraes scores an average of 1.8 goals per match while Mlada Boleslav scores an average of 1.4 goals in their away matches. Considering the number of goals conceded per match as well, a prediction of 2-1 becomes plausible.

3. Success Probability: According to the provided probabilities, Guimaraes has a success probability of 74.74% to win the match, which is a strong argument to support the prediction. Furthermore, there is an 80.41% probability of there being more than 1.5 goals in the match, suggesting a possibility of multiple goals.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Guimaraes is showing strong form at home, with a 60% win rate in their last 5 matches. They have displayed a solid offensive potential by scoring 8 goals and a defensive potential of 43%.

On the other hand, Mlada Boleslav has shown mixed form away from home with a 40% win rate. They have an average of 1.4 goals scored per match, indicating a less powerful offensive potential compared to Guimaraes.

The chances of Guimaraes winning are high, with a probability of 74.74% and odds of 1.36. On the other hand, a draw has a lower probability of 18.04% and odds of 5.00.

The potential for over 1.5 goals in the match is promising, with a probability of 80.41% and attractive odds of 1.20.

Looking at recent matches, Guimaraes has scored in every home match except one. Mlada Boleslav has also scored in their away matches, except for one.

A key prediction could be a match with over 1.5 goals, considering the past performances of both teams and their goal-scoring averages.

In terms of the winner, Guimaraes appears to be the favorite given their home form and Mlada Boleslav’s struggles away from home.

The potential number of goals

Guimaraes, at home, shows a solid performance with a success rate of 60%. Their efficient attack scores 1.8 goals per match. However, their defense concedes an average of 1.2 goals. On the other hand, Mlada Boleslav, when playing away, wins less frequently, with a success rate of 40%. They score an average of 1.4 goals, and their defense is slightly better, conceding on average 1 goal.

In their last 5 matches, Guimaraes and Boleslav have scored 8 and 7 goals respectively. They have conceded 9 and 8 goals. Both teams clearly need to improve their defensive performance.

Statistically, Guimaraes is favored to win at 74.74% compared to only 7.22% for Mlada Boleslav. A draw is possible with a probability of 18.04%.

The match could see plenty of goals. More than 1.5 goals are expected with a probability of 80.41%. For those seeking more risk, more than 2.5 goals have a probability of 58.25%.

As for both teams to score, it’s a 50-50 chance. The probability is 49.48% for, and 50.52% against.

For the prediction, the option “Draw or Guimaraes to win” with a probability of 92.78% seems safe. However, for a more thrilling experience, “More than 2.5 goals in the match” with a 58.25% probability might be tempting.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on the comprehensive analysis of the recent form of the teams, their home and away performances, and goal averages, it appears that Guimaraes has a significant advantage. With a stronger offensive potential and a 74.74% probability of winning, the odds seem to favor Guimaraes. However, since football is often unpredictable, the draw option could offer an interesting value bet, with odds of 5.00. In terms of total goals, the option of over 2.5 goals seems the most likely, given the current average goals scored per match by both teams. Finally, despite a slight advantage for the “Both teams to score” option, the bet remains quite uncertain. Therefore, it is suggested that bettors carefully evaluate their strategy taking these analyses into consideration.