Tipps Independ. Rivadavia Velez Sarsfield Copa de la Liga Profesional 16/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Velez Sarsfield wins the match”

1. Velez Sarsfield’s defensive potential is higher than their offensive potential. In their last 5 away matches, their defensive potential is 14% compared to an offensive potential of 29%. This indicates that Velez Sarsfield has a strong defense, giving Independ. Rivadavia little chance to score.

2. The odds of victory favor Velez Sarsfield. Velez Sarsfield’s likelihood of success is 45.11%, higher than Independ. Rivadavia’s 20.65%. The odds of 2.05 for a Velez Sarsfield win reinforce this observation.

3. Velez Sarsfield’s recent away match history shows some strength. Despite a deficit match against River Plate (5 – 0), the other three recent matches have been victories, indicating an ability to win away from home.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Velez Sarsfield has scored an average of 0.8 goals per game away in their last 5 matches, indicating a weak offensive performance on the road.
2. Independ. Rivadavia has, on average, conceded 1 goal per game at home, indicating a relatively strong defense.
3. Taking into account recent matches, many have seen a total of goals under 2.5, signaling a trend towards low-scoring games involving both teams.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Velez Sarsfield’s offensive performance level away from home is quite low, averaging only 0.8 goals per match. This significantly reduces the risk of them scoring a goal.
2. Independ. Rivadavia has shown some defensive instability in their home matches, conceding an average of 1 goal per match. However, Velez Sarsfield’s weak offensive potential could offset this risk.
3. Analysis of Velez Sarsfield’s recent away matches reveals that they have failed to score in 40% of their matches. This consistent inability to score regularly on the road strengthens the argument that this match could end without both teams scoring.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Independ. Rivadavia to win the match – 54.89% success probability: 1.78.

Bet on the exact result

Independiente Rivadavia 1 – 1 Velez Sarsfield

1. Independiente Rivadavia’s home performance: Their home performance is quite balanced with a tendency towards draws (60% in their last 5 matches). Additionally, they have scored 8 goals in 5 matches, which is a good average (1.6 goals per match).

2. Velez Sarsfield’s away performances: Velez Sarsfield has shown a fairly solid defensive performance away from home, conceding only 0.4 goals per match on average. This could limit Independiente Rivadavia’s score to 1 goal.

3. Draw trend: Looking at the probability percentage, a draw has a high chance of occurring (34.24%). Taking this into consideration along with the offensive and defensive trends of both teams, a 1-1 scoreline seems quite plausible.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

At home, Independiente Rivadavia has a mediocre performance, with a 40% win rate. They have a leaky defense overall, conceding 11 goals.

Velez Sarsfield, on the other hand, shows a nearly similar performance away, also with a 40% win rate. However, they have a lackluster attack with only 4 goals scored.

Based on trends, Rivadavia has an offensive potential of 64%, while Sarsfield struggles with 29%.

The highest probability is a win for Velez Sarsfield, at 45.11%.

That being said, the most likely scenario is a match with fewer than 3.5 goals – a probability of 79.35%.

Nevertheless, recent history shows some surprises, like Rivadavia’s 4-0 victory over River Plate.

So, considering the analysis, a defensive and tight match is likely, with Velez Sarsfield slightly favored. However, football always holds surprises.

The potential number of goals

Independ. Rivadavia, at home, have shown a mixed performance with a win rate of 40% and a draw rate of 60%. They have scored 8 goals in total but conceded 11 goals.

Velez Sarsfield, away, have similar performances with a win rate of 40% and a draw rate of 20%. They have scored fewer goals, only 4, but have also conceded fewer, 9 goals.

The attack of Independ. Rivadavia is more active with an average of 1.8 goals per match, but their defense lets in 1 goal per match. This gives them an offensive potential of 64% and a defensive potential of 36%.

Velez Sarsfield scores less, 0.8 goals per match, but also concedes less with 0.4 goals per match. They have an offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 14%.

In terms of prognosis, Velez Sarsfield has a win probability of 45.11%, compared to only 20.65% for Independ. Rivadavia. The likelihood of a draw is estimated at 34.24%.

Neither team has a strong attacking edge. However, Velez Sarsfield seems to have a slightly superior defense.

Final prediction: under 2.5 goals in this match with a success probability of 79.35% would be the most plausible outcome. The match is more likely to end in a victory for Velez Sarsfield or a draw.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the analysis of data, recent performances, and characteristics of both teams suggests that the match between Independ. Rivadavia and Velez Sarsfield will likely be a defensive encounter with fewer than 2.5 goals scored. Although Velez Sarsfield are slightly favored due to their stronger defense, Independ. Rivadavia’s strong home performance could bring surprises. The most interesting bets for this match would be Velez Sarsfield’s victory or a draw with fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. Keep in mind, however, that football, just like sports betting, always involves an element of unpredictability and nothing is ever guaranteed.