Tipps Indonesia Philippines World Cup - Qualification Asia 11/06/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Based on the analysis of statistics and recent match histories of both teams, my prediction would be “Draw or Indonesia wins the match”, given the higher percentage of draws and victories for Indonesia in their home matches.

1. Indonesia’s home performance: Indonesia has a relatively strong record when playing at home, with a 20% win rate and 60% draw rate in their last 5 home matches. This indicates they have a strong likelihood of not losing the match.

2. Philippines’ away performance: The Philippines have a low win rate away (20%) and also a low draw rate (20%). This suggests the Philippines may struggle to win this match, thus increasing the chances of a draw or an Indonesia win.

3. Indonesia’s defensive potential vs Philippines’ offensive potential: Indonesia has a defensive potential of 43% compared to Philippines’ offensive potential of 21%. This suggests Indonesia is more likely to resist Philippines’ attacks and control the match, thereby increasing the chances of a win or draw for Indonesia.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. Low offensive potential of both teams: The past performances of both teams show that they struggle to score. Indonesia averages 0.8 goals per home match, while the Philippines averages 0.6 goals per away match.
2. Match history: Indonesia’s last 5 home matches have not seen more than 3 goals, and apart from one match for the Philippines, all other away matches have not exceeded 3 goals.
3. High defensive potential: The Philippines has a relatively high defensive potential at 86%, meaning it is less likely to concede many goals, thus limiting the total number of goals likely to be scored in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. The low offensive potential of both teams: Indonesia has an offensive potential of 29% while Philippines has an offensive potential of 21%. This means that they have struggled to score goals in their previous matches.

2. The strong defensive potential of Philippines: With a defensive potential of 86%, Philippines has shown a strong ability to prevent opposing teams from scoring in their away matches.

3. Recent match statistics: In their last 5 matches, Indonesia has only scored 2 goals and Philippines has scored 4 goals. These low offensive production numbers suggest that it is likely that both teams will not score in the upcoming match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

“Indonesia 1-1 Philippines”.

1. The draw percentage for Indonesia at home is 60%. This is a strong statistic that suggests a rather high probability of a draw against the Philippines.

2. Looking at their recent performances, both Indonesia and the Philippines have weak attacks (0.8 goals per match on average for Indonesia and 0.6 for the Philippines) but relatively strong defenses (1.2 goals per match for Indonesia and 2.4 for the Philippines). These facts support the idea of a low-scoring match.

3. The teams’ recent matches have generally had low scores, with a stronger trend towards draws or losses for both teams. This indicates an equal ability of both teams to resist the opponent, strengthening the possibility of a draw score.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Indonesia, playing at home in their last five matches, have had a modest record with only one win. However, they managed to secure three draws. In terms of attack, the Indonesians have struggled with only two goals scored. Defensively, they have conceded seven goals.

The Philippines, playing away, also have only one win and one draw in their last five matches. They have shown a better offensive performance than Indonesia, scoring four goals. However, their defense remains fragile, having conceded eight goals.

In terms of statistics, Indonesia has an offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 43%. The Philippines, on the other hand, have an offensive potential of 21% and a defensive potential of 86%.

The forecast remains uncertain with a 0% probability of success for all scenarios, except for “Both teams do not score”, which shows a 100% probability. There is also a 100% probability for “Under 3.5 goals in the match” and “Under 4.5 goals in the match”.

Considering these data, caution would be advisable when betting on this match.

The potential number of goals

Indonesia has had a mixed performance at home with only one win in their last 5 matches. They have scored 2 goals while conceding 7. This reflects a vulnerable defense, while their offensive potential remains low.

As for the Philippines, their away performance doesn’t seem more impressive. They have only secured one win in their last 5 away games. They have had one draw and lost the other three. They have scored 4 goals and conceded 8, indicating both defensive and offensive weaknesses.

In a direct comparison, Indonesia seems to have a better offensive performance at home, scoring an average of 0.8 goals per match compared to the Philippines’ average of 0.6 away goals. Defensively, the Philippines are more vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.4 goals compared to Indonesia’s 1.2.

The predictor does not give any probability of one team winning over the other for this match, indicating a balanced encounter. However, the interesting key data is that both teams are less likely to score. There is a 100% chance that both teams will not score.

The offensive potential of Indonesia and the Philippines is 29% and 21% respectively, which is relatively low. However, their defensive weakness has a significant impact on the number of goals: Less than 3.5 and less than 4.5 goals have a 100% chance of happening.

Based on this analysis, we could therefore expect a low-scoring match between Indonesia and the Philippines.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, considering Indonesia’s home performances and the Philippines’ away performances, the most likely forecast is a draw or a victory for Indonesia. However, the relatively low offensive potential of both teams and their high defensive potential suggest a low-scoring match, making the bet “under 2.5 goals in the match” interesting. The history of exact scores and recent performances of both teams indicate a high probability of each team scoring only one goal, although it is also highly likely that both teams will not score. Finally, the numbers suggest that under 3.5 and 4.5 goals are almost guaranteed.

It is important to note that forecasts are never 100% certain and can be affected by many unforeseen factors such as the current form of players, playing conditions, and many others. Therefore, while these forecasts are based on detailed statistical analyses, the risk associated with the bet should never be overlooked. Always bet responsibly.