Tipps Italy Belgium UEFA Nations League 10/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

My prediction for this match is: Italy wins the match.

1. Italy’s remarkable home performance: In their last 5 home matches, Italy has won 80% of the time. This is a strong indication of their strength on home soil and a key factor supporting the prediction of their victory over Belgium.

2. Belgium’s weakness away from home: Belgium has not performed well in their away games, failing to win a single time in their last 5 matches. This poor performance away from home gives Italy an advantage in this match.

3. Italy’s superior offensive potential: Italy’s average goals scored at home is 1.2 per match, compared to Belgium’s average of 1 goal per match when playing away. This indicates that Italy has a better attack, increasing their chances of winning the match.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Recent away performances of Belgium have shown a clear trend towards low-scoring matches, with an average of only 0.8 goals scored per game and a total of just 2 goals scored in their last 5 matches.

2. Italy’s defensive statistics at home demonstrate a team that concedes few goals, with an average of only 1.2 goals per game, indicating a strong defense that may help limit the number of goals scored in the match.

3. Probability analysis gives odds of 1.83 for less than 2.5 goals in the match, more favorable than those for over 2.5 goals in the match, suggesting a general consensus predicting a relatively low-scoring game.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Analysis of recent scores: Italy’s recent home matches show that the team has scored in every match with a total of 10 goals in 5 matches (an average of 2 goals per match), and Belgium, despite less impressive away results, has scored in 2 out of 5 matches, indicating that both teams have offensive potential.

2. Defensive statistics: Both teams seem to have fragile defenses. Italy has conceded 12 goals in their last 5 home matches, averaging 2.4 goals conceded per match, while Belgium has conceded a total of 2 goals in their last 5 away matches, averaging 0.4 goals conceded per match. These numbers suggest that both teams may struggle to keep a clean sheet.

3. Betting statistics: Both teams to score has a success probability of 56.15%, suggesting that the odds favor both teams scoring in this match. This probability is expressed as a confidence index, further strengthening the argument.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Belgium wins the match – 1.70

Bet on the exact result

Italy 1-1 Belgium

1. The recent match statistics show that Italy is capable of scoring goals at home but has a weak defense, having conceded 12 goals in 5 matches. Meanwhile, Belgium has a strong defensive performance away, having conceded only 2 goals, but struggles to score, with only 2 goals scored. These trends could lead to a balanced match based on defense, with both teams finding the net.

2. The odds provided for the match result suggest that Italy has a slightly higher chance of winning than Belgium. However, with a probability of 29.41% for a draw, this scenario is also quite plausible. Furthermore, the odds indicate a high likelihood (73.8%) of over 1.5 goals in the match, which is consistent with a 1-1 scoreline.

3. The offensive and defensive potentials of both teams are quite close, with Italy at 43% for both and Belgium at 36% for offense and 29% for defense. This suggests that both teams have comparable abilities to score and defend, which could also lead to a draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Italy, playing at home, is in good form: 80% win rate! No draws, 10 goals scored against 12 conceded. Belgium, on the road, is struggling: 0% wins but 60% draws. Just 2 goals scored and 2 conceded.

On average, Italy scores 1.2 goals per game. Offensive potential 43%. Belgium, on the other hand, scores 1 goal on average per game. Less aggressive with an offensive potential of 36%.

Betting odds? Italy is the favorite with a 42.78% chance of winning. Belgium has a 27.81% chance. A draw? Possible, 29.41%.

Betting on “under 1.5 goals” is risky: odds of 3.35. On the other hand, “over 1.5 goals” seems reasonable with a probability of 73.8%.

Both teams to score? 56.15% chance. Something to consider.

Italy’s recent home matches: two 2-1 wins against Albania and Venezuela, a 1-0 win against Bosnia-Herzegovina, and an impressive 5-2 win against Macedonia. Belgium away has suffered two defeats against France, two draws with England and Ukraine, and another draw with Ireland.

In conclusion, Italy seems to have the upper hand. A win or over 1.5 goals could be sensible bets.

The potential number of goals

Italy, playing at home, is effective. In 5 matches, they have won 4 times. However, they have conceded 12 goals, averaging 2.4 goals per game. Attack, yes, but at what cost defensively?

On the other hand, Belgium has been sterile away from home. No victories but 3 draws in the last 5 matches. Additionally, with only 2 goals scored, the Belgian attack seems powerless.

Italy has a 43% chance of scoring against Belgium, who in turn, only has a 36% chance of scoring. In other words, Italy is more likely to score tonight.

The prediction seems to favor Italy with a probability of 42.78% compared to Belgium’s 27.81%. However, a draw is also quite likely with 29.41%.

Statistically, it is more likely that the match will have less than 3.5 goals, with an 80.75% chance. This aligns better with Belgium’s poor offensive performance.

Finally, there is a 56.15% chance that both teams will score. Italy’s offensive play could be the reason for this.

In summary, we have an aggressive Italy but vulnerable defensively, and a Belgium struggling to score. The match result is uncertain, but there may not be a deluge of goals.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

To conclude, this match between Italy and Belgium promises to be tight and rich in strategies. Italy, with its remarkable home performance, seems to have the edge and could potentially win this match. However, Belgium is not to be underestimated with its solid defensive performance away from home and a tendency towards draws. The recommended bets, based on detailed statistical analysis, would be an Italy win, under 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams to score. An interesting value bet would be a draw or a Belgium win. For the exact score, a 1-1 draw seems like the likely result. Nevertheless, it’s always advisable to bet with caution and responsibility. Remember that in the world of sports betting, nothing is ever 100% certain.