Tipps Lanus Independiente Medellin Copa Sudamericana 19/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Lanus wins the match”

1. Lanus has a much more solid home performance than Independiente Medellin’s away performance. In fact, Lanus has won 60% of their last 5 home matches, while Independiente Medellin has not won any of their last 5 away matches.

2. Lanus’s offensive potential at home is significantly higher than Independiente Medellin’s away potential. Lanus scores an average of 1.4 goals per home match, while Independiente Medellin only scores 1 goal per away match.

3. The probability of Lanus winning the match is also significantly higher according to the odds given, with a success probability of 59.46% for a Lanus win, compared to only 15.68% for an Independiente Medellin win.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Previous statistics show that Independiente Medellin is not very strong away from home, with a 0% win rate in their last 5 matches and a relatively low number of goals scored (5 goals in 5 matches). This may suggest a low risk of many goals from them.

2. Lanus, despite having a good home record, also has a relatively high rate of conceding goals (13 goals in 5 matches), indicating that their defense is not the strongest. However, their average goals conceded per match (0.8) remains below the 2.5 goals mark.

3. The likelihood of a match with under 2.5 goals is low (1.66), but the probabilities of the match (under 3.5 goals with a success rate of 82.7% and under 4.5 goals with a success rate of 93.51%) indicate that it is unlikely for the match to exceed a total of 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. According to Lanus’ recent home matches, the team has scored in all of their games, with a total of 11 goals scored and 13 goals conceded. This shows that Lanus is capable of scoring against their opponents while also maintaining some vulnerability in their defense.

2. As for Independiente Medellin, even though they do not have a strong tendency to win away from home, with a 0% probability of victory in their last 5 matches, they still manage to score goals, with 5 goals scored against 7 goals conceded.

3. Focusing on the average goals scored and conceded per match, we observe that in their respective environments (home for Lanus, away for Independiente Medellin), both teams have an average of goals scored and conceded that is higher than 1. This suggests that in the upcoming match, both teams could score against their opponent.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Over 1.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Lanus 2-1 Independiente Medellin

1. Lanus has a strong probability of winning at home: According to the provided statistics, Lanus has a 59.46% probability of winning the match. Additionally, in their last 5 home games, Lanus has won 60% of the time, which is a strong indication of their strong home performance.

2. Poor away performances by Independiente Medellin: Independiente Medellin struggles to win when playing away, with a 0% win rate in their last 5 away matches. Furthermore, they have a 15.68% probability of winning this match, which is significantly lower than Lanus.

3. Offensive and defensive potential of both teams: Lanus has scored an average of more goals per match (1.4) than Independiente Medellin usually does away from home (1.8). Additionally, Lanus concedes fewer goals (0.8) than what Independiente Medellin tends to score when playing away. This leads us to predict that Lanus will score more goals than Independiente Medellin based on current data, resulting in a predicted score of 2-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Lanus is in good form at home, with a victory in 60% of recent matches. However, they have a goal deficit, having scored 11 goals but conceded 13. Their offensive potential is 50% and defensive is 29%.

Independiente Medellin, playing away, has not won in their last 5 matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 7. They have an offensive potential of 64% and defensive of 29%.

The probability of Lanus winning the match is 59.46%, with odds of 1.72. A draw has a 24.86% chance with odds of 3.60. An Independiente Medellin win is less likely, with a probability of 15.68% and odds of 5.00.

The last 5 home matches of Lanus show a trend of scoring and conceding goals, which could mean this match might have over 1.5 goals, a bet with a 71.89% probability of success.

In conclusion, Lanus seems to have an advantage, although their goal deficit is concerning. A cautious bet could be a “Draw or Lanus wins the match” bet, with an 84.32% probability of success.

The potential number of goals

Lanus is strong at home, with a victory in 60% of matches. In terms of offense, they have scored 11 goals in 5 matches. However, the defense has been struggling, conceding 13 goals.

Independiente Medellin has a hard time winning away games, with no victories in 5 matches. They have modestly scored 5 goals and conceded 7.

On average, Lanus scores 1.4 goals per home match and concedes 0.8. The offensive potential shows an average score of 50%, defensive potential of 29%.

Independiente scores an average of 1.8 goals away and concedes 0.8 goals. The offensive potential is slightly higher at 64%, with a defensive potential equivalent to 29%.

Prediction for the match: Lanus has a 59.46% chance of winning, with odds of 1.72. A draw with a 24.86% probability is also possible, with odds of 3.60.

Prediction for goals: A match with over 1.5 goals has a probability of 71.89%, while a score exceeding 2.5 goals has a probability of 43.24%.

Both teams to score is priced at 49.73. However, the probability of both teams not scoring is slightly higher at 50.27%.

In summary, Lanus has the advantage at home based on their recent performances. They are a team that can score, despite sometimes having a lax defense. Independiente Medellin will have a tough challenge, but should not be discounted. A game that could see over 1.5 goals, but with no certainty on which team will score.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on statistical data and the recent performances of both teams, Lanus appears to be the favorite to win this CONMEBOL Sudamericana match against Independiente Medellin. However, despite being strong at home, they show signs of vulnerability, especially in defense where they tend to concede goals. On the other hand, Independiente Medellin also struggles to secure victories in their away matches, but they consistently demonstrate the ability to score goals. The bet of “Lanus to win or draw” could therefore be an interesting option. Furthermore, it is likely that the total score will exceed 1.5 goals, presenting opportunities to bet on the total number of goals in the match. In summary, despite uneven strengths, this match could provide some surprises and interesting betting opportunities.