Tipps Lazio Salernitana Serie A 12/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Lazio Rome wins the match.”

1. AS Roma has a better home record in their last 5 matches with 40% wins and 60% draws, while Salernitana has not won any of their last 5 away matches.

2. The probability statistics favor AS Roma with a 72.4% chance of winning this match, compared to 10.94% for Salernitana. This shows a strong confidence of forecasters in the home team.

3. AS Roma demonstrates superior offensive and defensive potential. On average, AS Roma scores 1 goal per match and concedes 1.4 goals at home. In contrast, Salernitana also scores an average of 1 goal per match, however, they concede 2.2 goals on average away, suggesting a weaker defense.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. History of poor offensive performance: Looking at the last 5 away matches of Salernitana and the last 5 home matches of Lazio Rome, there have been few goals scored. Salernitana has scored 3 goals in 5 matches (0.6 goals/match) while Lazio Rome has scored 4 goals in 5 matches (0.8 goals/match).

2. Strong defensive capability: Both Lazio Rome and Salernitana have displayed solid defensive performances. At home, Lazio Rome has only conceded 4 goals in 5 matches (0.8 goals/match). Away from home, Salernitana has conceded 3 goals in 5 matches (0.6 goals/match).

3. Offensive weakness of Salernitana: Salernitana has shown a lack of attacking prowess in their away matches, failing to win any of their last 5 matches. Additionally, Salernitana’s offensive potential is only 36%, reducing the likelihood of a high number of goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Salernitana’s weak offensive potential: with an average of only one goal scored per away game and no wins in their last 5 away matches, it is unlikely that Salernitana will score a goal.
2. Lazio Rome’s strong home defense: with an average of only 1.4 goals conceded per home game, Lazio Rome has a solid defensive potential. Additionally, in their last 5 home matches, Lazio Rome has alternated between wins and draws, showing defensive solidity.
3. Bookmakers’ odds: The data provided indicate that the probability of both teams not scoring is relatively high at 57.29%, significantly higher than the probability of both teams scoring (42.71%). This suggests that bookmakers also consider it more likely that both teams will not score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw – 16.67% success probability: 5.50

Bet on the exact result

“Lazio Rome 2-1 Salernitana”

1. Lazio Rome has a superior home win record against Salernitana on the road. In 40% of cases, Lazio Rome has won at home in their last 5 matches, while Salernitana has shown no away wins.
2. Salernitana’s defensive potential away from home is quite low compared to Lazio Rome at home. Salernitana has a defensive potential of 79%, meaning they tend to concede more goals on the road. In contrast, Lazio Rome has a 50% defensive potential at home, indicating they are less likely to concede goals.
3. According to the provided probabilities, there is a significant chance that Lazio Rome will win the match with a success probability of 72.4%. Additionally, there is a 77.6% success probability for more than 1.5 goals to be scored in the match, suggesting a 2-1 scoreline in favor of Lazio Rome.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Lazio Rome is showing good results at home, with a 40% win rate and 60% draws. They have scored 4 goals in total and conceded 4 goals as well.
On the other hand, Salernitana is struggling away from home. They haven’t won any of their last 5 matches, scored 3 goals, and conceded 3 goals.
Lazio Rome has an average of 1 goal per home match and concedes an average of 1.4 goals per match. Salernitana, on the road, scores an average of 1 goal per match and concedes 2.2 goals per match.
Based on the probabilities, Lazio Rome has a 72.4% chance of winning the match. There is a 77.6% probability that the match will have more than 1.5 goals.
The recent series of home matches for Lazio Rome indicates a mixed performance. However, with Salernitana’s weaker away series, Lazio Rome is the favorite.
Considering this data, the safest prediction would be a Lazio Rome win with fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.

The potential number of goals

Lazio Rome has a home win rate of 40%. They score an average of one goal per match offensively, but defensively struggle with an average of 1.4 goals conceded. On the other hand, Salernitana has a tough away record with no wins. They also score an average of one goal per match, but defensively struggle more with an average of 2.2 goals conceded. Both teams have a similar offensive potential at 36%, but Salernitana’s defense appears weaker with a defensive potential of 79% against Lazio’s 50%.

The match result heavily favors Lazio Rome (72.4% chance of success) with odds of 1.30. In terms of goals, forecasts suggest over 1.5 goals in the match (77.6% chance of success), with odds of 1.25. Both teams have a lower likelihood of scoring (42.71% chance of success, odds at 2.25).

Based on these figures, a victory for Lazio Rome can be expected in a match likely to have over 1.5 goals.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, considering past statistics, recent performances of both teams, and calculated probabilities, it appears clear that Lazio Rome is the favorite to win the match against Salernitana. On average, Lazio Rome performs better at home than away, while Salernitana has struggled in their away games. Therefore, it may be wise to bet on a Lazio win.

However, statistics also indicate that the number of goals scored in the match is likely to be low, with below-average offensive potential for both teams. Therefore, the Over/Under 2.5 bet suggests betting on fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.

For the BTTS bet, statistics suggest that it is unlikely for both teams to score, providing further indication of Salernitana’s limited offensive potential.

In terms of exact score, a popular prediction is a 2-1 score in favor of Lazio Rome, considering Salernitana’s defensive performance and Lazio’s home win record.

With odds of 5.50 for a draw, this presents an interesting value bet given the mixed results of both teams in previous matches.

Nevertheless, as with all sports betting, nothing is guaranteed, and the final outcome will depend on the teams’ performances on match day. That’s the charm and beauty of sports.