Tipps Leganes Valencia La Liga 04/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Leganes wins the match.

1. Leganes’ home form: In the last 5 matches, Leganes has shown a strong performance at home with a 60% probability of winning and a 40% probability of a draw. Leganes has also demonstrated a balanced ability to score and defend, with a total of 6 goals scored and 6 goals conceded.

2. Valence’s poor away performance: Valence has struggled in their away matches. In the last 5 away matches, Valence has not won any game and has not drawn either. They have only scored 2 goals while conceding 4 goals, indicating issues in both offensive and defensive performance.

3. Statistical probability: The probabilities also support the prediction of a draw or a Leganes win with a success probability of 62.64%, compared to a success probability of 37.36% for a Valence win.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Lower goal-scoring rate: In their last 5 home matches, Leganes has scored an average of 1 goal per match, while Valence has scored an average of 0.6 goals per match away from home. The goal-scoring rate seems to be low for both teams.

2. Solid defensive performances: Both teams have relatively solid defense – Leganes concedes an average of 1.2 goals per match at home, while Valence only concedes 1.4 goals on average when playing away.

3. Recent head-to-head history: Looking at the last 5 away matches of Valence and the home matches of Leganes, most of these games have ended with less than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Valencia’s offensive potential is low in away matches: on average, they only score 0.6 goals per match over the last 5 games, with an offensive potential of just 21%. It is therefore likely that they may not score in this match.
2. Leganes has a strong defense when playing at home, conceding an average of only 1.2 goals per match in the last 5 games, with a defensive potential of 43%. There is a high chance that they will not concede any goals to Valencia in this match.
3. Past statistics show a strong trend towards both teams not scoring during the match. In fact, the probability of both teams not scoring is 59.34% with odds of 1.62, which is more likely than the alternative of both teams scoring (probability of 40.66%).

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 3.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Leganes 1-0 Valencia

1. The recent away performances of Valencia have been quite poor, having scored only 2 goals and conceded 4 in their last 5 matches. They have also not won any of their recent away games. This makes the predicted score of 1-0 in favor of Leganes more plausible.

2. Leganes’ home performances are also in their favor. In their last 5 home matches, they have won 60% of the time. Furthermore, they have scored 6 goals in these matches, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which aligns with the prediction of a single goal for Leganes.

3. Betting statistics also support this prediction. The bet for “under 1.5 goals in the match” has odds of 2.35, suggesting a high likelihood of a low-scoring game. Additionally, with “under 2.5 goals in the match” at odds of 1.42 and “both teams to score – no” having a 59.34% probability of success, it is clear that punters also anticipate a low-scoring game dominated by solid defense. Therefore, a 1-0 score in favor of Leganes is a fun yet plausible prediction.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Leganes, at home, are in good form. They have a 60% win rate in their last 5 matches, with no losses. They show balanced offensive and defensive strength, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.2 goals conceded per match, giving them an offensive potential of 36% and a defensive potential of 43%.

Valencia, away from home, are struggling. They have not won any of their last 5 matches. Their lack of offensive and defensive efficiency is evident: they score an average of 0.6 goals and concede 1.4 goals per match. Their potential is low, with 21% in attack and 50% in defense.

In terms of probabilities, Leganes have a 20.88% chance of winning, compared to Valencia’s 37.36%. A draw is the most likely outcome, with a 41.76% chance. A match with fewer than 3.5 goals is highly probable, with an 87.91% chance. Therefore, the most likely prediction would be a low-scoring draw. Both teams have a respective 40.66% chance of scoring and a 59.34% chance of not scoring.

Based on these data, the most likely prediction would be a draw with fewer than 3.5 goals scored.

The potential number of goals

Leganes has been efficient at home, winning 60% of their last 5 matches. The team manages to score an average of 1 goal per match, showing an offensive potential of 36%. However, they also concede an average of 1.2 goals, highlighting a defensive potential of 43%.

On the other hand, Valencia is struggling away from home. In their last 5 matches, the team has not won any and has only scored 2 goals. With an offensive potential of 21% and a defensive potential of 50%, Valencia is finding it difficult to assert themselves on the road.

According to probabilities, a draw is the most likely outcome with a 41.76% chance. However, Valencia’s victory is not out of the question with a probability of 37.36%. Less than 3.5 goals are expected in this match, with a high probability of 87.91%.

Leganes’ recent performances against Athletic Bilbao and Mallorca show that they can handle the pressure at home. However, Valencia has struggled against teams like Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad.

Based on these data, a close match with few goals is to be expected. Both teams to score has a probability of 40.66%, while both teams not to score is at 59.34%.

In conclusion, predicting a victory for Leganes or a draw with less than 3.5 goals seems to be the safest bet.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Considering all the data and analysis mentioned, it is clear that Leganes, with its remarkable home efficiency, appears to be the favorite for this match against a struggling Valencia away team. However, football is an unpredictable sport and even though the data shows a potentially tight match with a likely low number of goals, surprises are part of the game at times.

It is advisable to take into account the unpredictable factors inherent in all sporting events. Bettors are advised to bet on a draw or a Leganes victory with probably less than 3.5 goals in the match, which represents the safest bet based on the available analyses and probability calculations. Nevertheless, every bettor should remain aware of the risks and bet responsibly.