Tipps Libertad Cumbayá Liga Pro 05/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

My prediction for this match is “Libertad wins the game”. This prediction is based on the provided statistics, especially the success probability of 52.66% for a Libertad victory.

1. Comparison of past performances: Libertad has a better home record in their last 5 matches than Cumbayá does away. Libertad has indeed won or drawn in 40% of cases, compared to just 20% for Cumbayá.

2. Comparison of offensive and defensive potential: Libertad has a defensive potential of 43% at home, higher than Cumbayá’s 50% away. Additionally, although their offensive potential is equal (21%), Libertad at home has scored more goals than Cumbayá away (5 against 2), which could favour Libertad.

3. Probability of success: Libertad has a higher probability of success (52.66%) compared to Cumbayá (18.09%). Furthermore, the probability of a draw or a win for Libertad is very high at 81.91%, strengthening the argument for a Libertad victory.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The statistics for goals scored/conceded by both teams are relatively low. Indeed, at home, Libertad has scored a total of 5 goals and conceded 5 goals in their last 5 matches. Additionally, away from home, Cumbayá has scored a total of 2 goals and conceded 3 goals in their last 5 matches. These numbers indicate a general trend towards matches with a low total number of goals.

2. The offensive potential of both teams is low. Libertad has a home offensive potential of 21% and Cumbayá also has an away offensive potential of 21%. These statistics suggest that both teams struggle to score, contributing to the likelihood of a total of goals less than 2.5.

3. Analysis of the teams’ recent matches shows that games often have a total number of goals less than 2.5. For example, 4 out of the last 5 home matches for Libertad and 4 out of the last 5 away matches for Cumbayá had a total of goals less than 2.5.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. The recent performances of Libertad and Cumbayá suggest that their offensive potential is quite low (only 0.6 goals per match on average for both teams). This indicates a lack of scoring ability on both sides, increasing the likelihood of both teams not scoring.

2. By examining the performances of these teams away (for Cumbayá) and at home (for Libertad), both teams tend to concede more goals than they score. For Libertad, this translates to an average of 1.2 goals conceded per home match, and for Cumbayá, 1.4 goals conceded on average in away matches. This lack of defensive potential on each side could limit the ability for either team to score.

3. Based on Libertad’s recent home matches and Cumbayá’s away matches, it is quite common for either team to fail to score. In fact, in three of the last five away matches for Cumbayá, the team has failed to score; and in two of the last five home matches for Libertad, the team has also failed to score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

“Libertad 1-0 Cumbayá”

1. Libertad’s home statistics are quite favorable with 20% of wins and 20% of draws, giving Libertad an advantage on home soil. Additionally, Libertad has scored more goals at home compared to Cumbayá away.
2. Cumbayá has weaker performances in away matches, with no wins and only 20% draws. Its offensive potential is also low, with only 0.6 goals scored per away match.
3. Analyzing the probabilities, it is noted that the scenario where Libertad wins the match is more likely (52.66%) compared to a draw (29.26%) or a victory for Cumbayá (18.09%). Furthermore, the probability that the match does not exceed 1.5 goals is quite high (2.70), suggesting a low-scoring result such as 1-0.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Libertad has had a mixed performance at home with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. They have scored and conceded the same number of goals (5) in 5 matches.
Cumbayá, away from home, has yet to taste victory. They have only 1 draw and 4 losses. They are less effective offensively with 2 goals scored and 3 conceded.
Statistics give Libertad a 52.66% chance of winning, with odds of 1.75. A draw is projected at 29.26% with odds of 3.35. Cumbayá has only an 18.09% chance of winning (odds of 5.00).
With less than 1.5 goals, the odds are 2.70, while with more than 1.5 goals, the chances increase to 71.28% (odds of 1.45).
There is an 84.04% probability of a scoreline of under 3.5 goals (odds of 1.20).
There is a 50% chance of both teams scoring (odds of 2.10) or neither team scoring (odds of 1.62).
In summary, Libertad appears to have the edge in this match, but the outcome remains uncertain.

The potential number of goals

Libertad struggles to win at home, with only a 20% victory rate in their last 5 matches. They are a balanced team, scoring as many goals as they concede, which adds up to 5 goals in total.

Cumbayá also does not shine away from home, with no recent victories and only 2 goals scored. Their defense is slightly better, having conceded 3 goals.

Libertad has a 52.66% chance of winning at home, while Cumbayá has only an 18.09% chance away. A draw is more likely than a Cumbayá victory, with a 29.26% chance of occurring.

Regarding goals, there is a high probability (71.28%) of seeing over 1.5 goals in the match and 40.96% for over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score have a 50% probability.

Finally, let’s look at their recent encounters. Libertad has had varied results, while Cumbayá has faced repeated defeats away.

Based on these statistics, Libertad is more likely to win with potentially over 1.5 goals in the match. A more in-depth analysis could reveal more precise trends.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the analysis of previous data suggests that the match between Libertad and Cumbayá could end in favor of Libertad, with a success probability of 52.66%. However, with both teams having a weak offensive potential, it is likely that the total number of goals in the match will be less than 2.5. Furthermore, based on the previous performances of both teams, it is unlikely that both teams will score in this match. Therefore, I suggest betting on a victory for Libertad with fewer than 2.5 goals scored in the match. However, please note that sports betting always involves risk and it is important to always bet responsibly.