Tipps Lorient Ajaccio Ligue 2 27/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Lorient wins the match

1. Home Performance: Lorient has proven its strength at home by winning 60% of its last 5 matches, while Ajaccio hasn’t won any of its away matches. Additionally, Lorient has a higher average of goals scored than Ajaccio when they play at home and away, respectively.

2. Probabilities: According to statistics, the probability of Lorient winning the match is 61.24%, which is much higher than the probability of Ajaccio winning the match, set at 14.04%.

3. Offensive and Defensive Potential: Lorient has an offensive potential of 43% and a defensive potential of 21% at home, while Ajaccio has an offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 29% away. These figures indicate that Lorient has an offensive and defensive advantage when playing at home.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The statistics of both teams show a relatively low offensive potential. Lorient scores an average of 1.2 goals per home match, and Ajaccio scores an average of 0.8 goals per away match, which results in a total expected of fewer than 2.5 goals.
2. Taking into account the defensive statistics, Lorient concedes an average of 0.6 goals per home match, and Ajaccio concedes an average of 0.8 goals per away match. This indicates that both teams are capable of defending effectively, increasing the likelihood of a total number of goals under 2.5.
3. Ajaccio’s recent performance has been particularly weak with no wins in their last 5 away matches and only 3 goals scored. Additionally, considering Lorient’s recent home matches, it can be observed that in 4 out of 5 matches, the number of goals was under 2.5.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Ajaccio’s offensive potential away from home is quite low, with only 0.8 goals scored on average per match in their last 5 away games, indicating a lack of attacking efficiency when playing outside their home ground.

2. Lorient’s defensive potential at home is rather strong, conceding only 0.6 goals per match in their last 5 home games, suggesting that their defense is solid and capable of preventing Ajaccio from scoring.

3. Recent historical data also supports this prediction. In Ajaccio’s last 5 away matches, they failed to score in 2 games, while Lorient kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 home matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Lorient 1-0 Ajaccio

1. Lorient’s home performance is significantly better than Ajaccio’s away performance. Lorient has a 61.24% probability of winning at home, while Ajaccio has no wins when playing away.

2. Both offensively and defensively, Lorient seems to have the upper hand. They score an average of 1.2 goals at home, compared to Ajaccio’s 0.8 goals away. Additionally, Ajaccio concedes as many goals as they score, while Lorient has a better defense, only conceding 0.6 goals.

3. The history of previous encounters suggests a low-scoring game. The probability of fewer than 1.5 goals in the match is quite high. With Lorient having a mere 43% offensive potential and Ajaccio with 29%, a 1-0 scoreline seems logical.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Lorient has a strong home record with 60% of wins in their last 5 matches. On the other hand, Ajaccio struggles away from home, with no wins and 60% of draws.

When playing at home, Lorient scores an average of 1.2 goals per match and concedes 0.6 goals on average. Ajaccio has a balanced ratio of 0.8 goals scored and conceded in their away games.

The prediction heavily favors Lorient with a 61.24% chance of winning, compared to only 14.04% for Ajaccio. The probability of a draw is 24.72%.

Overall, there is a high likelihood of fewer than 3.5 goals with an 88.76% chance. However, the match could have an offensive turn with a 46.07% probability for over 2.5 goals.

The probability of both teams scoring is 42.13%, but it’s more likely that only one team will score with a 57.87% probability.

Based on their match history, Lorient has a good home form despite a loss against Guingamp. Ajaccio struggles away from home, with several draws and defeats.

In conclusion, Lorient seems to have the advantage, especially at home. A match with fewer than 3.5 goals seems probable, perhaps with only one team scoring. A safe prediction could be a bet on Lorient to win or a draw.

The potential number of goals

For the Lorient – Ajaccio match, Lorient has a good home win rate (60%) while Ajaccio never wins away (0%). Even though their offensive and defensive potential are close, Lorient has a 61.24% probability of winning compared to 14.04% for Ajaccio. Furthermore, Ajaccio only scores an average of one goal per away game.

In the last 5 home matches for Lorient, the average number of goals is 1.4 per game. The trend indicates a match with under 2.5 goals (odds at 1.57) with a high probability of 88.76% for under 3.5 goals.

It appears more likely that both teams will not score with a probability of 57.87%. Considering these data, the prognosis would be a low-scoring game in favor of Lorient.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the statistical data analyzed including teams’ form, their performance at home and away, as well as their offensive and defensive potential, the forecast suggests a victory for Lorient against Ajaccio. Predicting less than 2.5 goals seems reasonable given the relatively low offensive potential of both teams and solid defensive performance. It is also likely that both teams will not score in this match. Taking into account Ajaccio’s recent form and Lorient’s home performances, the most probable exact score would be 1-0 in favor of Lorient. However, with sports betting, there is always an element of uncertainty and it is important to only bet what one can afford to lose. So, although Lorient appears to be the favorite, nothing is ever guaranteed in football.