Tipps Luton Watford Championship 19/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Luton Town wins the match.

1. Luton Town has a better home record than Watford away: Luton Town has a combination of wins and draws at home in 80% of cases in their last 5 matches, while Watford has only won in 20% of cases in their last 5 away matches.

2. Defensive statistics: At home, Luton Town concedes an average of 1.6 goals per match, which is less than Watford who concedes an average of 2.2 goals per match away. Watford may therefore struggle to contain Luton Town’s attacks.

3. Probability of success: According to predictions, the probability of the match ending in a victory for Luton Town or a draw is 71.79%, which is significantly higher than the probability of Watford winning the match (28.21%).

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

My prediction for the match would be “Under 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. The past performances of both teams clearly indicate a trend towards low-scoring matches. On average, Luton Town has scored 1.2 goals per home match and Watford has scored 1.2 goals per away match.

2. The defenses of both teams appear to be solid. Luton Town has only conceded 1.6 goals on average per home match, and Watford has conceded an average of 2.2 goals away from home. This limits the number of goals opponents can score.

3. The recent home matches of Luton Town and away matches of Watford also indicate a general trend towards lower scores. Out of the 10 matches mentioned, 8 had less than 2.5 goals. This increases the likelihood of under 2.5 goals in their encounter.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Both teams Luton Town and Watford have a quite similar average of goals scored per match, namely 1.2 and 1.2 goals respectively. Since their offensive potential is assessed at 43%, it is therefore likely that both teams will score during the match.

2. Based on the information regarding previous matches, Luton Town has conceded an average of 1.6 goals per home match and Watford has conceded an average of 2.2 goals away. Consequently, both teams have shown notable defensive weaknesses with defensive potentials of 57% and 79% respectively, enhancing the probability of both teams scoring in the encounter.

3. As for the success rate, it is estimated at 60% for the “Both teams to score” option. This probability is quite high compared to other options, making it a logical and potentially lucrative betting choice.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match: 2.10

Bet on the exact result

Luton Town 1-1 Watford

1. Recent home match statistics for Luton Town show a 60% draw rate. This trend increases the likelihood of another draw when they play against Watford.
2. The offensive capabilities of Luton Town and Watford are similar, with both teams averaging 1.2 goals scored per match. This suggests that neither team has a clear offensive advantage, further boosting the chances of a drawn result.
3. Both teams have a high rate of matches where both teams score, with a success probability of 60%. This indicates the possibility of each team scoring at least once during the match, resulting in a final score of 1-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Luton Town, at home, seems to favor draws (60%). They have scored 7 goals but conceded 10. Similarly, Watford, away from home, has not been very successful, with only a 20% win rate and no draws. With 5 goals scored and 7 conceded, the numbers are not in their favor.

In terms of averages, both Luton Town and Watford score an average of 1.2 goals per match. Luton has a stronger defensive potential than Watford (57% versus 79%). Watford seems to struggle to keep a clean sheet.

A victory for Luton Town is more likely, with odds of 1.99 for a 41.03% probability, while Watford has odds of 3.57 for a 28.21% chance of winning.

The results also indicate a 75.38% probability of more than 1.5 goals in the match, with odds at 1.25. Less than 4.5 goals is almost certain, with an 83.08% probability and odds at 1.15.

It is also relatively likely that both teams will score, with a 60% probability and odds at 1.65.

Looking at their recent matches: Luton does not seem to be in good form, with losses and draws. Watford, on the other hand, has not performed well away, with one win in five matches.

Overall, Luton seems to have a slight advantage playing at home. However, the match appears uncertain with a potentially high number of goals.

The potential number of goals

Luton Town, at home, has a tendency to draw often (60%) with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded. Their offensive and defensive potential are not very balanced, at 43% and 57% respectively.

Watford, on the other hand, does not draw away and only wins in 20% of cases. They score an average of 1.2 goals per match, but concede more than 2 goals. Their defense struggles with a potential of 79%.

The probability of victory favors Luton Town (41.03%) over Watford (28.21%). This leaves a significant chance for a draw (30.77%). The best option predicts either a draw or a Luton Town win with a probability of 71.79%.

Regarding the number of goals, one can expect to see more than 1.5 goals in the match with a probability of 75.38%. The number of goals could, however, remain below 3.5, with a probability of 68.21%.

Looking at recent matches, both teams have scored regularly but Watford’s defensive record is more concerning. Thus, there is a 60% probability that both teams will score in this match.

In summary, it is a match that should favor Luton Town, with goals from both sides and a total number of goals likely less than 3.5.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the match between Luton Town and Watford appears to slightly favor the home team, Luton Town, especially considering their previous performances at home. However, the game promises to be closely contested and could go either way, offering interesting betting opportunities.

Based on the statistics, it seems likely that the final score will be under 2.5 goals, making this bet an interesting “value bet.” Furthermore, the consistent trend of both teams scoring and conceding goals regularly suggests that “both teams to score” is a safe bet to consider.

Finally, predicting an exact score of 1-1 stands out as a thoughtful and potentially profitable betting choice, given the similar offensive strength of both teams and the high probability of a draw.

However, it’s important to remember that these conclusions are based on statistics and previous predictions, and the world of football is unpredictable and can always offer surprises. Good luck with your bets!