Tipps Machida Zelvia Nagoya Grampus J1 League 06/07/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Machida Zelvia wins the match.”

1. Machida Zelvia has a stronger offensive potential at home compared to Nagoya Grampus away. In fact, over their last 5 matches, Machida Zelvia has scored an average of 1.4 goals per home game, while Nagoya Grampus has scored an average of 0.4 goals per away game.
2. Machida Zelvia has a weaker defensive potential at home than Nagoya Grampus away. Indeed, over their last 5 matches, Machida Zelvia has conceded an average of 0.6 goals per home game, while Nagoya Grampus has conceded an average of 1.2 goals per away game.
3. Probability statistics also favor Machida Zelvia with a win probability of 43.01% compared to a win probability for Nagoya Grampus of 24.19%.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Under 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. Examining the recent performances of both teams, it is clear that they do not score many goals. In their respective last five matches, Machida Zelvia and Nagoya Grampus have scored an average of 1.2 and 1.4 goals per match, respectively. This, combined with the fact that both teams do not have strong offensive potential (50% for Zelvia and 14% for Grampus), suggests that it is unlikely there will be more than 2.5 goals in the match.

2. As for the defense of both teams, recent performances show that Machida Zelvia and Nagoya Grampus concede an average of 1.2 and 0.6 goals per match at home and away, respectively. This, coupled with their respective defensive potential (21% for Zelvia and 43% for Grampus), also suggests that it is unlikely we will see more than 2.5 goals in this match.

3. Betting statistics display odds of 1.62 for under 2.5 goals in the match. This indicates that the betting market also expects a low-scoring match, further strengthening the idea that it is a logical bet.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Nagoya Grampus has a low offensive potential: On average, Nagoya Grampus only scores 0.4 goals per away match, indicating a weak offensive potential when playing away from home.
2. Machida Zelvia shows good defensive potential at home: Machida Zelvia concedes an average of 0.6 goals per home match, suggesting a certain defensive solidity on their own turf.
3. Recent match history: Taking into account the recent matches of each team, it is common for one or both teams not to score. These past trends may indicate a probability that the pattern will repeat in the upcoming match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Machida Zelvia 1-1 Nagoya Grampus

1. Recent statistics show a fair trend between the two teams. In their respective last 5 matches, Machida Zelvia and Nagoya Grampus have won and drawn in 20% of cases. Moreover, they both have scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches. This fairness may justify a draw result.

2. Considering the offensive and defensive efficiency of both teams, Machida Zelvia has an average of 1.4 goals scored per match while Nagoya Grampus has an average of 0.4 goals scored per match. However, Nagoya Grampus has a better defensive efficiency with an average of 1.2 goals conceded per match compared to 0.6 for Machida Zelvia. This could lead to a match where each team scores a goal.

3. Finally, the probabilities offered by the odds also support this prediction. The scenario of a draw has a success probability of 32.8%, the second highest after the one where Machida Zelvia wins the match. Furthermore, the probability of both teams scoring is 50%, which is quite high, reinforcing the forecast of a match ending in a 1-1 score.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

In their last 5 home matches, Machida Zelvia won one out of five, with also one draw. Their attack has been productive, scoring a total of 6 goals, but their defense has been equally leaky, conceding the same amount.

When playing away, Nagoya Grampus has the same ratio of wins and draws, scoring just as many goals but conceding one more.

On average, Machida Zelvia scores 1.4 goals per home match and only concedes 0.6, giving them offensive and defensive potentials of 50% and 21% respectively. Nagoya Grampus, on the road, has a less impressive record with an average of 0.4 goals scored per match and 1.2 conceded, resulting in offensive and defensive potentials of 14% and 43% respectively.

The highest probability for this match is that Machida Zelvia will win, with odds of 1.95. A draw is slightly less likely at 3.40, while a Nagoya Grampus victory appears to be the least probable option at 3.75.

The most reliable statistic for this match seems to be the choice of “Under 4.5 goals in the match” with a success probability of 95.7%.

Summarizing the recent matches of both teams, there seems to be a tendency for draws for Machida Zelvia at home, as they have not lost in their last two encounters. Away from home, Nagoya Grampus has experienced more negative results, but has recently returned to winning ways.

Combining all this data, a tight match is predicted with a slight form advantage for Machida Zelvia at home. However, it will be interesting to monitor the opening goal, as it could change the flow of the game.

The potential number of goals

Machida Zelvia, playing at home, has a balanced record with as many goals scored as conceded (6). Their offensive and defensive potential are 50% and 21% respectively.

On the other hand, Nagoya Grampus, playing away, has conceded more goals than they have scored (7 against 6). Their offensive potential remains low (14%) while their defense seems more solid (43%).

The probability of victory leans more towards Machida Zelvia (43.01%) than Nagoya Grampus (24.19%). A draw is possible but less likely (32.8%).

Regarding the number of goals in the match, there is a 67.2% probability of there being more than 1.5 goals, while the probability of seeing less than 3.5 goals is high (79.57%).

Analyzing the recent matches, there seems to be a trend towards close scores for both teams.

In conclusion, it could be a low-scoring match, with a slight advantage for Machida Zelvia playing at home.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, based on all of these data and analyses, several conclusions emerge. Machida Zelvia seems slightly favored, especially due to their stronger offensive potential at home compared to Nagoya Grampus away. However, both teams have shown a tendency for close scores, indicating that the match could be low-scoring in terms of goals.

Regarding specific bets, the choice of ‘Under 2.5 goals’ seems to offer the best risk-reward ratio, considering the moderate offensive potential of both teams. As for the exact score, a 1-1 draw could be a realistic and likely prediction, given the balanced performances of both teams.

Ultimately, just like in any sports bet, although the outcome of the match is based on multiple analyzed factors, some level of uncertainty always remains. Therefore, every bettor must be aware of the inherent risk involved in sports betting.