Tipps Marseille Nice Ligue 1 14/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Marseille OM wins the match

1. Home Performance of OM: Statistics show that in their last 5 home matches, OM has a strong tendency to win or draw, with wins in 60% of cases and draws in 20% of cases. Additionally, OM has an average of 3 goals per home match, indicating a strong offensive potential and enhancing the probability of a draw or an OM win.

2. Away Performance of Nice: Nice’s away performances are less impressive, with wins only in 40% of cases and draws in 20% of cases. Furthermore, Nice has an average of 1.8 goals per away match, which is lower than OM’s offensive potential at home.

3. Prediction Probabilities: The odds offered for this match favor the scenario “Draw or OM wins the match,” which has a success probability of 83.51% with odds of 1.22. This probability is significantly higher than that of a Nice victory (16.49%).

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“More than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. Goal History: Looking at the last five matches, Marseille OM has scored 11 goals and Nice 10 goals. This goal rate suggests a potentially high-scoring match.

2. Offensive and Defensive Potential: Marseille’s offensive potential is 107% and Nice’s is 64%. Both teams have defensive potentials of 50%, indicating weaker defenses and therefore more goals.

3. Both Teams to Score – With a probability of 55.15%, there is a strong likelihood that both teams will score during the match, which could contribute to a total of over 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The statistics of both teams show a strong tendency to score goals, with an average of 3 goals per match for Marseille OM at home and 1.8 goals per match for Nice away.
2. Both teams also tend to concede goals, with an average of 1.4 goals conceded per match for each, highlighting a potentially vulnerable defense.
3. Previous matches show a trend of both teams scoring. For instance, in the last 5 away matches of Nice, they scored in 4 matches, and in the last 5 home matches of Marseille OM, they scored in 4 matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw.

Bet on the exact result

“Marseille OM 2-1 Nice”

1. Home Performance: Marseille OM has shown a strong performance at home, winning 60% of their last 5 matches, with an offensive potential of 107%. They have also scored an average of 3 goals per match in these recent games.

2. Weakness of Nice away from home: Nice, when playing away, has only won 40% of their last 5 matches, with a lower offensive potential of 64%. They have also been prone to conceding goals, with an average of 1.4 goals per match, like Marseille OM, which could allow Marseille OM to score at least two goals.

3. Odds Evaluation: With a probability of over 50% for Marseille OM to win the match, and a probability of 79.38% for over 1.5 goals in the match, a score of 2-1 in favor of Marseille OM seems plausible and profitable based on the given odds.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Marseille OM shows a strong performance at home, with a win rate of 60% in matches. Additionally, the team has scored 11 goals in five matches, which is promising. However, the defensive record is a bit weak with 12 goals conceded.

Nice, on the other hand, has a relatively weaker performance on the road, winning only 40% of matches and scoring 10 goals in five matches. Nevertheless, its defense, with 12 goals conceded, is similar to that of Marseille OM.

The statistics reveal a win probability for OM of 50.52% against Nice’s win probability of 16.49%. A draw is estimated at 32.99%.

The probability of the match ending with over 1.5 goals is 79.38%, while the probability of total goals being under 3.5 is 72.16%.

The recent performances of Marseille OM at home and Nice away make these predictions likely. Therefore, a win for Marseille OM with over 1.5 goals seems to be a relevant bet for this match.

The potential number of goals

Marseille OM has scored 11 goals in 5 home matches, averaging 3 goals per game. They have also conceded 12 goals, averaging 1.4 goals per game. This suggests that Marseille OM’s defense may have weaknesses as they have a defensive potential of only 50%.

Nice has scored 10 goals in 5 away matches, averaging 1.8 goals per game. Their defense has also conceded 12 goals, averaging 1.4 goals per game. Their defensive potential is the same as Marseille OM, at 50%.

There is a 79.38% probability that the match will end with over 1.5 goals. The last Marseille OM vs Reims match saw 4 goals, supporting this prediction.

Marseille OM has a higher probability of winning, at 50.52%, which implies odds of 1.78. But a draw also has a significant probability of 32.99% with odds of 3.70.

Both teams have a 55.15% probability of scoring, suggesting that the match could be tight and competitive.

Based on their recent performance, it seems likely that Marseille OM has the advantage at home. However, a close encounter could lead to a higher total of goals.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, taking into account the form of the teams, their offensive and defensive potential, as well as their performances at home and away is crucial in the development of a reliable prediction. For the match between Marseille OM and Nice, several factors argue in favor of a win or a draw for OM, and a match with over 2.5 goals is expected. However, the competitive context and recent performances of both teams suggest that the outcome is far from certain. Sports betting always involves risk-taking, with information and statistical analysis serving as decision-making tools but by no means guaranteeing the result.