Tipps Metz Lens Ligue 1 12/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Lens wins the match”

1. Lens has a 51.3% probability of winning, higher than Metz’s, indicating superiority in their recent performances.
2. Lens’s away performances are better than Metz’s home performances. Lens wins 40% of its matches away from home, while Metz only wins 20% of its home matches.
3. Lens has a stronger defense: Lens concedes an average of 1.2 goals per match away from home, while Metz concedes an average of 2.2 goals per match at home.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. The statistics of these two teams show a low goal production. On average, Metz scores 1.4 goals per home match, and Lens also scores 1.4 goals away. Combined with their defensive capabilities, these figures indicate a low total number of goals.

2. In the last five matches of each team, the majority (Metz 3/5, Lens 4/5) had less than 2.5 goals. This is a strong trend to consider for the bet.

3. The indicated probabilities already suggest a greater chance of less than 2.5 goals (success probability 55.96%) than of more than 2.5 goals (success probability 44.04%), which supports the first two arguments based on recent performances.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The statistics reveal an average offensive potential for both teams. Metz has an average of 1.4 goals per home match while Lens reaches the same score away. This suggests that both teams have the ability to score in their games.

2. The calculated probability of both teams scoring is quite significant (43.52%). Although it is not the majority probability, it is still high enough to consider this scenario.

3. Based on the recent home matches of Metz and away matches of Lens, a trend can be observed: these teams regularly concede goals. In their respective last 5 matches, Metz has conceded 7 goals and Lens 8 goals, showing a certain defensive vulnerability, which could lead to both teams scoring in the match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Metz wins the match – odds: 4.70

Bet on the exact result

Metz 1-2 Lens

1. Lens has a better performance away from home compared to Metz’s performance at home. Statistics show that Lens has won 40% of their away matches, while Metz has only won 20% of their home matches.

2. Lens has a moderately balanced offense and defense, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per match. In contrast, Metz has a weaker defense with an average of 2.2 goals conceded per match, which could favor a 2-0 scoreline for Lens.

3. The trend from Lens’ recent away matches shows that the team scores at least one goal in each game. Considering Metz’s weak defensive capability, Lens is likely to score at least two goals.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Metz is not in great form at home, with only a 20% victory rate in their recent matches. Draws dominate at 60%. They have scored 5 goals but conceded 7.

Lens is performing better away, winning 40% of their recent matches. They have a total of 8 goals scored and conceded.

On average, Metz scores 1.4 goals per home match but concedes 2.2 goals. The offensive and defensive performance probabilities are 50% and 79% respectively.

Lens, away, shows similar numbers in terms of goals scored (1.4) but has a better defense, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match. Offensive and defensive potential of 50% and 43%.

Betting on a Lens victory seems more interesting according to the probabilities: estimated success rate of 51.3% for odds of 1.78.

A bet on over 1.5 goals in the match also seems wise with an estimated success rate of 68.91%.

However, considering the defensive potential, betting on under 3.5 goals in the match could be a solid option with a success probability of 80.83%.

Regarding the bet on whether both teams will score or not, the “no” option slightly prevails with a success probability of 56.48%.

Lastly, let’s analyze their recent confrontations. Metz has unfortunately suffered many home defeats, including a heavy 2-5 loss to Monaco.

On the other hand, Lens has had mixed results away, but managed to beat Nantes and Lyon.

In conclusion, Lens seems to be in better form and more likely to win this match. However, taking into account the defensive performances, a low-scoring match could be on the cards.

The potential number of goals

Translated into English:

On their last 5 home matches, Metz has only won once, drawing three times. They have a fragile defense, conceding more than they score: 7 goals allowed, 5 scored.

Lens has a better performance away from home: two wins, one draw. Goals? Eight scored, eight conceded. More balance in defense.

Clear statistics: Metz has a 50% offensive potential compared to 79% in defense. Lens has the same offensive potential with a more secure defense: 43%.

Prediction? Statistics favor Lens, with a 51.3% probability of winning compared to 25.39% for Metz.

Probability of a draw or Lens win: 74.61%. Less favorable for Metz, at only 48.7%.

Goals? The match has a 68.91% chance of having more than one goal. Less than 4.5 goals is highly probable: 91.19%.

Both teams score? Probability at 43.52%. Less likely than both teams not scoring: 56.48%.

In summary, Lens seems to be the favorite. Expect a match with goals but not too many. One aspect to consider could be whether both teams will score.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, considering the statistics and recent performances of both teams, it appears that Lens has a slight edge to win this match against Metz. However, football being an unpredictable sport, one should not overlook the possibility of a surprise, or a ‘value bet’, from Metz, especially with such an attractive odds of 4.70. Additionally, even though both teams have shown in their recent matches that they can score, the statistics point towards a potential low-scoring game, with significant probability of less than 2.5 goals. Bettors interested in bolder bets may consider the exact score wager, where, based on the recent performances of both teams, the score of Metz 1-2 Lens could be an interesting option. Overall, this match promises to be exciting and there are multiple betting opportunities available. Good luck with your bets!