Tipps Middlesbrough Stoke City Championship 28/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Middlesbrough wins the match

1. The calculated probability of Middlesbrough winning the match is 57.3%, which is significantly higher than the other scenarios (draw – 20.79%, Stoke City wins the match – 21.91%).

2. Even though Middlesbrough’s home performances have been mixed, they have managed to win in 40% of cases. They have also shown an ability to score at home, with a total of 5 goals in their last 5 home games.

3. In the last head-to-head between the two teams at Middlesbrough, Stoke City shone with a 5-0 victory. However, football remains an unpredictable sport, and the previous match could play psychologically in favor of Middlesbrough, who will be looking to seek revenge in front of their home crowd.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

1. The statistics show that Middlesbrough has an offensive potential of 36% and concedes an average of 1.8 goals per match at home, while Stoke City has an offensive potential of 57% and scores an average of 1.6 goals per match away. This suggests a high probability that both teams will score and the match will surpass 2.5 goals.

2. The recent matches between these two teams have seen high scores, especially the previous Middlesbrough versus Stoke City game which ended in a 0-5 scoreline. This level of goals, along with the overall offensive-defensive balance of both teams, points to a match where the nets are likely to bulge.

3. The betting probabilities also support this prediction. A total of over 2.5 goals in the match has a success probability of 58.43%, with odds of 1.70, which is a favorable condition for such a forecast.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. In the last 5 home matches of Middlesbrough, the team has conceded 5 goals, showing some defensive vulnerability. Furthermore, in two of these matches, they failed to score any goals, which dampens the likelihood of both teams scoring.

2. Stoke City has also displayed varying form in their away matches, scoring 8 goals but also conceding 8. This suggests a level of inconsistency both offensively and defensively, increasing the probability of Stoke City not scoring in the match.

3. Probability statistics indicate a slight edge (51.12%) for the possibility of both teams not scoring. When combined with the previous performances of both teams, it logically seems possible that both teams may fail to score in their upcoming encounter.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Stoke City wins the match.

Bet on the exact result

Middlesbrough 1-2 Stoke City

1. Recent history of confrontations between these two teams: In their last match played at Middlesbrough, Stoke City clearly dominated with a 5-0 victory. This shows that Stoke City has a strong performance when playing away against Middlesbrough.

2. Offensive and defensive potential of the teams: Stoke City displays better performance both in attack and defense compared to Middlesbrough. Stoke City scores an average of 1.6 goals per match against Middlesbrough’s 1 goal, and concedes an average of 1 goal per match compared to Middlesbrough’s 1.8.

3. The probability of betting success indicates a certain advantage for Stoke City: Despite a higher probability of Middlesbrough winning, the fact that the probability of a draw or a Stoke City victory is 42.7% manifests a significant trend towards a favorable outcome for Stoke City.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Middlesbrough has a balanced home record, winning 40% of its matches and scoring 5 goals. Its defense has also conceded the same, 5 goals. An average offensive and defensive balance is shown with respective potentials of 36% and 64%.

Stoke City shows strength away from home in its recent matches with a 60% win rate. The tally of 8 goals scored and conceded shows balance, but an offensive potential of 57% higher than the defensive 36%.

Probabilities point to Middlesbrough being more likely to win at 57.3%, although not conclusively, with odds of 1.67. On the other hand, Stoke City has a win probability of 21.91% with higher odds at 4.70.

Twelve goals are expected in this game based on recent statistics, so the option for over 2.5 goals, with a success probability of 58.43% and odds of 1.70, seems fair.

Lastly, the list of recent matches indicates that Stoke has previously won 5-0 on its last visit to Middlesbrough. This recent victory could be a psychological factor in favor of Stoke.

In conclusion, predicting that Middlesbrough will win but in a match where over 2.5 goals will be scored seems to be a prudent bet based on statistics, unless Stoke replicates its last away performance.

The potential number of goals

Middlesbrough, in their last 5 home games, has an average win rate of 40% with an average of 1 goal scored per match. They concede an average of 1.8 goals per match, resulting in a defensive potential of 64%.

On the other hand, Stoke City has a higher away win rate of 60%, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per match. Their defense also holds up well, conceding an average of 1 goal per match.

Taking these statistics into account, Middlesbrough has slightly higher chances of winning the match with a 57.3% probability. A draw is less likely at 20.79%. Stoke City has a success probability of 21.91%.

There is a higher probability for the total goals in the match to be over 1.5 goals but under 3.5 goals, with a success rate of 58.43%.

Furthermore, the statistics indicate a nearly equal distribution regarding both teams potentially scoring, with a slight edge towards both not scoring, at 51.12%.

Based solely on these data, a reasonable prediction could be a Middlesbrough win with a total of under 3.5 goals for the match.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the statistics and analyses suggest a favorable victory for Middlesbrough, although not decisively. Considering their home performance and past results, Middlesbrough appears to be the safest choice for bettors, with a 57.3% probability of winning. However, it would be wise to expect a high-scoring match, as both teams’ attacks are capable of scoring. A bet on a total of over 2.5 goals seems to be the most likely scenario, reflecting the average number of goals scored by these teams.

However, neither team demonstrates consistent defensive solidity. A bet on either team not scoring seems to be a fairly safe bet, with a slight statistical dominance. Stoke City’s 5-0 victory in the previous match against Middlesbrough could work in their favor, as well as Stoke City’s superior offensive potential in away games.

In summary, the safest bets would be a Middlesbrough victory with over 2.5 total goals in the match or a match where both teams fail to score. A bet on Stoke City’s victory could be tempting for bettors looking for a “value bet,” despite a lower probability of success. It is imperative for bettors to consider these different variables and adjust their bets accordingly. As always, football remains an unpredictable sport, and while statistics and analyses can help, they cannot guarantee the final result of a match.