Tipps Millwall Leicester Championship 09/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Leicester City wins the match”

1. Offensive and defensive potential comparison: Leicester City has a significantly higher offensive potential compared to Millwall (57% vs. 29%). Additionally, despite a similar defensive level (57%), Leicester’s high offensive potential can offset this risk.

2. Last 5 matches analysis: For Leicester City, away performances show an ability to score with an average of 1.6 goals per match, compared to Millwall’s 0.8 goals average at home. Furthermore, Leicester has conceded fewer goals away (6) than Millwall at home (7).

3. Likelihood of success: Leicester City has a 53.33% probability of winning this match compared to Millwall’s 18.97%. This statistic reinforces the possibility of a Leicester victory.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The attacking performances of Millwall and Leicester City in their respective last 5 matches have not been particularly high. Millwall has scored a total of 3 goals in their last 5 home matches, averaging 0.6 goals per game. Leicester City, on the other hand, has scored a total of 6 goals in their last 5 away matches, averaging 1.2 goals per game. These numbers indicate a low offensive potential for both teams, which increases the likelihood of a match with fewer than 2.5 goals.

2. Statistics also show a strong defensive capability from both teams. Millwall has conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game at home, while Leicester City has conceded the same average in their away matches. As both teams tend to concede fewer goals, this further supports the idea of a match with fewer than 2.5 goals.

3. Finally, the “Under 2.5 goals” prediction has odds of 1.92, indicating that bookmakers are also expecting a game with fewer than 2.5 goals. Bookmakers’ odds are typically based on sophisticated statistical models that take into account a wide range of factors, further validating this prediction.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. Leicester City’s statistics show that they are likely to score and concede an average of 1.6 goals per game in their away matches. This tendency for high-scoring games suggests that both teams are likely to score.
2. Although Millwall has a weaker home performance with an average of 0.8 goals per game, they have managed to score in 3 of their last 5 home matches. This demonstrates some offensive potential despite their low win rate.
3. The “Both teams to score” prediction has a success probability of over 50% as indicated in the information. Furthermore, the over 2.5 goals market, with a 50.77% probability, reinforces this prediction as for this scenario to occur, it is likely that both teams will score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match: 1.92

Bet on the exact result

Millwall 1-2 Leicester City

1. Leicester City has a higher probability of winning (53.33%) compared to Millwall, who has a relatively low chance of winning (18.97%). Therefore, a victory for Leicester City seems more likely.
2. Both teams tend to score fewer goals, with averages of 0.8 and 1.6 goals per match respectively. A scoreline of 1-2 would be in line with these statistics.
3. Recent performances show that Millwall performs well at home while Leicester tends to do better away from home, indicating a potential close match. A 1-2 scoreline would be a logical outcome considering this information.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Millwall shows an average performance at home with a 40% win and draw rate. They have an average of 0.8 goals per match, but have conceded more, at 1.2 goals per match. The record is 3 goals scored against 7 conceded in the last 5 matches.

Leicester City, when playing away, has also won in 40% of cases and drawn in 20% of cases. They have scored 6 goals and conceded the same number, with an average of 1.6 goals per match.

The probability of a match ending in a Millwall win is 18.97%, while the probability of a draw is 27.69%. The probability of a Leicester City victory is higher, at 53.33%.

There is also a high probability of seeing more than 1.5 goals in the match, at 75.9%, and a probability of 50.77% of seeing more than 2.5 goals.

As for the probability of both teams scoring, it is relatively balanced with 51.79% for “yes” and 48.21% for “no.”

Based on these data, Leicester City seems to be in a better position to win the match, but their lack of defensive stability could give Millwall the chance to score. Predictions point to a goal-rich match.

The potential number of goals

For Millwall at home, their performances are mixed. They have won 2 matches and drawn 1 in their last 5 games, with only an average of 0.8 goals per match.

Leicester City away is also performing mixed. They have won 2 matches with an average of 1.6 goals per match.

Millwall’s home offensive efficiency is low, at 29%. In contrast, Leicester City scores more frequently, with an efficiency rate of 57%.

Defensively, Millwall concedes more goals, with a defensive rate of 43%. Leicester City is level with 57% in defense.

The forecast favors Leicester City with a win probability of 53.33% compared to only 18.97% for Millwall.

Also consider the goals. Less than 2.5 goals in the match have odds of 1.92. The probability of both teams scoring is 51.79%.

In short, Leicester has the advantage, but watch out for defense and goals.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on the analysis of recent data from both teams, Leicester City appears to be the favorite to win the match against Millwall. Leicester’s superior offensive potential and their ability to score regularly on the road put the Foxes in a position to secure a crucial victory for their championship campaign.

However, despite Leicester being the favorite, the match does not seem particularly high-scoring, given the low average goals scored by both teams. The interesting betting value could therefore lie in a bet of “under 2.5 goals” in the match.

Finally, despite a defense far from impermeable, the probability of both teams scoring “yes” is 51.79%. This fact aligns with matches dominated by Leicester but where the opponent often manages to find the back of the net.

Thus, it would be reasonable for bettors to consider a Leicester City victory with a total goals under 2.5 and the possibility of both teams scoring nonetheless.