Tipps Monaco Lille Ligue 1 24/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Based on the provided data, Monaco has a slightly higher probability of winning the match (38.5%) compared to Lille (31.02%). However, it is also important to note that the game could end in a draw with a probability of 30.48%. Therefore, I would recommend the betting option “Draw or Monaco wins the match”, which has a success probability of 68.98%.

1. Over their last 5 respective matches, Monaco has managed to win or draw in 40% of cases at home, while Lille has succeeded in winning or drawing in 60% of cases away. This shows a slight advantage for Monaco when it comes to defending their home turf, although Lille also proves to be competitive on the road.

2. In terms of goals scored and conceded, Monaco at home has shown greater defensive stability with an average of 0.8 goals conceded per match compared to 1.2 goals for Lille away. This could give Monaco a slight edge in terms of their ability to withstand Lille’s attack.

3. Finally, based on the provided probabilities for the different possible outcomes of the match, the “draw or Monaco wins” option is the betting choice with the highest likelihood of success (68.98%). This statistic reinforces the idea that a bet on a Monaco win or draw would be the most logical and least risky choice.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

1. Both teams have shown consistent offensive performance: Monaco and Lille have been scoring an average of 1.8 goals per match in their last 5 respective outings, which represents an offensive potential of 64%. This implies a high likelihood of seeing more than 2.5 goals in the game.

2. The defense of both teams has displayed signs of weakness: Monaco has conceded an average of 0.8 goals per match in their last 5 home games, while Lille has conceded 1.2 goals on average in their last 5 away matches. These numbers suggest that both teams are likely to concede goals, thus increasing the probability of a total score exceeding 2.5.

3. Goal statistics and probabilities: The probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match is estimated at 56.15%, with odds of 1.70. Compared to other available betting options (such as under 2.5 goals, under 1.5 goals, etc.), this seems to be the most probable option based on the recent performances of both teams. Additionally, the high success probability percentage for the “Both teams to score” bet (57.22%) is another indicator that the match could see more than 2.5 goals scored.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The offensive statistics of both teams are quite strong. Monaco scores an average of 1.8 goals per home match, while Lille scores an average of 1.8 goals per away match.

2. The defense of both teams often allows goals to be scored. Monaco has conceded 6 goals in their last 5 home matches, and Lille has conceded 10 goals in their last 5 away matches.

3. The recent matches of both teams show that they have generally found the net in their encounters. For instance, in Monaco’s last five home matches, they scored in 4 out of 5 games. Similarly, Lille scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw – odds: 3.70

Bet on the exact result

Monaco 1-1 Lille

1. The statistics from previous matches indicate that both teams have a high probability of scoring goals, with an average of approximately 1.8 goals per match. This suggests that it is very likely that each team will score at least one goal, supporting the prediction of a 1-1 draw.

2. The performance of Monaco at home and Lille away in their last 5 matches shows a fairly similar percentage of draws, 20% and 20% respectively. This, combined with the fact that Monaco’s home win rate is lower than Lille’s away win rate, reinforces the likelihood of a draw.

3. Looking at the probabilities for the total number of goals in the match, it can be observed that the probability of less than 2.5 goals is higher than that of more than 2.5 goals. Furthermore, the probability of both teams scoring is 57.22%, further supporting the prediction of a final score of 1-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Monaco is fragile at home with only a 20% win rate. They have scored 5 goals but conceded 6. Their offensive potential is at 64% but defensively, they are weak at 29%.

Lille has shown better away performances with a 40% win rate. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 10. They have the same offensive potential as Monaco, 64%, but are more solid defensively at 43%.

The probability of Monaco winning this match is 38.5% with odds of 2.08. For Lille, the probability is lower at 31.02% with odds of 3.35.

A draw is quite possible with a probability of 30.48% and odds at 3.70.

Regarding goals, the probability of the match ending with over 1.5 goals is 78.07% with odds of 1.22.

The trend is towards both teams scoring with a probability of 57.22% and odds of 1.60.

Given these statistics, the prediction could be a draw with over 1.5 goals.

The potential number of goals

Monaco, at home, has an offensive potential of 64%, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per match. However, their defense is weaker, at 29%. In 5 matches, Monaco won once and drew once, scoring 5 goals and conceding 6.

Lille, playing away, also has an offensive potential of 64%, averaging 1.8 goals per match. Their defense, though, is stronger at 43%. In 5 matches, Lille won twice and drew once, scoring 7 goals and conceding 10 in total.

The probabilities indicate that the match could go either way. Monaco has a 38.5% chance of winning, Lille 31.02%, and a draw is at 30.48%. A bet on under 4.5 goals in the match has an 85.56% probability of success, suggesting the match should be relatively low-scoring.

Both teams are likely to score with a 57.22% probability. Therefore, an analysis suggests a balanced match with fewer than 4.5 goals scored.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Conclusion

From the detailed analysis provided, several conclusions can be drawn regarding the safest bet on the Ligue 1 match between Monaco and Lille. Based on the recent performances of both teams, it appears that Monaco has a slight advantage at home, despite weaker performances compared to Lille away. Taking into account the probabilities for the different match outcomes, the safest betting option is “Draw or Monaco wins the match” with a probability of 68.98%.

Regarding goals, both teams have a similar rate of goals scored and a fairly weak defensive performance, making a score of over 2.5 goals likely, as well as both teams scoring.

However, a bet offering interesting ‘value bet’ could be a draw in the match, with odds of 3.70, reflecting a possible upward value. As for the exact score, a 1-1 draw seems the most probable considering the offensive and defensive performances of both teams.

Finally, given the performances and statistics of each team, a balanced match is expected, where less than 4.5 goals should be scored. It is therefore recommended to take these factors into consideration when making betting decisions for this match.