Tipps Moreirense GIL Vicente Primeira Liga 20/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Moreirense wins the match”

1. Home Performance: Moreirense has won 40% of their last 5 home matches, with a balance between goals scored and conceded, indicating a rather solid home resistance.

2. GIL Vicente’s Away Performance: GIL Vicente struggles to win away, with just a 20% win rate in their last 5 matches. Moreover, they tend to concede more goals than they score when playing away.

3. Overall Statistics: According to statistical analysis, Moreirense has a higher probability of winning the match (43.33%) compared to GIL Vicente (25%).

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Past performances: In their last 5 games, Moreirense has scored an average of 4 goals and GIL Vicente has scored 5. This equates to an average of less than 2 goals per game for each team, indicating that matches between these two teams are generally low-scoring.

2. Offensive potential: The teams also have low offensive potential. Moreirense scores an average of 0.6 goals per game and GIL Vicente scores an average of 0.4 goals per game. Their offensive potentials are 21% and 14% respectively. This suggests that the teams will struggle to score more than 2.5 goals between them.

3. Probabilities: The probability of the match having less than 2.5 goals is 1.65, which is significantly higher than the probability of the match having more than 2.5 goals (39.44% probability). This indicates that bettors consider it more likely for the match to end with less than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The home match history of Moreirense shows that this team has scored goals in 60% of their last 5 matches. Additionally, Moreirense has also conceded goals in 60% of these same matches, demonstrating a vulnerability in defense that could be exploited by GIL Vicente.

2. On the GIL Vicente side, although their away performance hasn’t been very impressive with only a 20% win rate in their last 5 matches, they have managed to score in 60% of those matches. Furthermore, the team seems to have a defensive issue, having conceded goals in all matches, increasing the likelihood that Moreirense will score against them.

3. In terms of statistics, the probability of both teams scoring is rather high at 51.67%, which is higher than the probability of both teams not scoring (48.33%). This suggests that there is a strong chance that both teams will manage to score at least one goal in this match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or GIL Vicente wins the match – 56.67% probability of success: 1.72

Bet on the exact result

Moreirense 1-1 GIL Vicente

1. The previous match statistics show a higher frequency of draws for Moreirense at home and GIL Vicente away.
2. The offensive and defensive performance of both teams in the last 5 matches indicates an average goal rate per match approaching equality at 1 (0.6 for Moreirense and 0.4 for GIL Vicente).
3. The statistical probability of a draw is 31.67%, and added to this is the probability of 51.67% that both teams score, indicating a tendency towards a 1-1 scoreline.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Moreirense has shown a solid home performance with a 40% win rate and 20% draws in their last 5 matches. Their attack and defense are balanced, scoring 4 goals and conceding 4 goals as well.

GIL Vicente has displayed a poor away performance, winning only 20% and drawing 20% of their last 5 matches. They have scored 5 goals but have a heavy 8 goals conceded.

Moreirense shows an offensive potential of 21% and a defensive potential of 50%. Meanwhile, GIL Vicente only scores a mere 0.4 goals per match but concedes 2.2 goals, revealing a low offensive potential of 14% and a degrading defensive segment of 79%.

According to the odds, Moreirense is more likely to win the match with odds of 2.15 while GIL Vicente gets a lower odds of 3.40. A draw also seems possible with odds of 3.30.

Regarding the number of goals, the match is more likely to have less than 3.5 goals, with a success probability of 89.44%. A match where both teams score is likely at 51.67%.

Taking into account the two teams’ recent matches, Moreirense seems to have better momentum, especially with their 1-0 wins against Arouca and Chaves. GIL Vicente, on the other hand, is facing tough losses against Rio Ave and Braga.

In conclusion, a safe bet could be Moreirense to win or draw with odds of 1.30, while a riskier bet could be over 2.5 goals in the match with odds of 2.20.

The potential number of goals

Moreirense, with a 40% home win rate, appears more stable than GIL Vicente, who have only won once away. Moreirense has scored 4 times recently compared to GIL Vicente’s 5 goals, a slight difference. However, GIL Vicente’s defense seems less effective with 8 goals conceded compared to Moreirense’s 4.

The average goals per match further highlight this gap, especially in defense, where Moreirense performs twice as well. Moreirense has a 43.33% chance of winning, higher than GIL Vicente (25%) or a draw (31.67%).

Regarding goals, there is a 72.22% chance of having more than 1.5 goals. But with Moreirense’s defensive performance, the scenario of under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65 is conceivable. Furthermore, an 89.44% probability of under 3.5 goals is quite high.

For more excitement, both teams to score at odds of 1.90 is an intriguing prediction, with a probability of 51.67%.

In summary, Moreirense seems to have the advantage. A low number of goals is likely, under 2.5 seems realistic. The both teams to score option can add a touch of risk.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, this match between Moreirense and Gil Vicente has generated various predictions. Moreirense appears to have a slight advantage as the home team and with a better home performance. Gil Vicente, despite a questionable defense, has managed to score regularly in their away games, suggesting they could score at least one goal in this match.

Analysis of previous statistics suggests that it is more likely for the match to end with fewer than 2.5 goals, given the limited offensive potential of both teams. Likewise, the chances of both teams scoring in the match are considered quite high, making this bet a tempting option for bettors seeking a bit more risk.

A prediction for the exact score of 1-1 could be considered, taking into account the frequency of draws for Moreirense at home and Gil Vicente away, as well as the average goal rate per match.

Regarding an interesting value bet, “Draw or Gil Vicente to win” seems to be the best choice due to its probability of success and the offered odds value.

In summary, the recommended bets for this match would be a safe bet on either Moreirense to win or a draw, with a riskier but potentially more lucrative option on a match where more than 2.5 goals are scored by both teams. By keeping these analyses in mind, you can make an informed choice and place your bet accordingly. Good luck!