Tipps Nacional Asuncion Sportivo Luqueno Division Professional Apertura 04/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Sportivo Luqueno wins the match

1. Over their last 5 home matches, Nacional Asuncion has not won any game, with an offensive potential of only 36% and have conceded more goals (9) than they have scored (6), demonstrating their weakness in defense.

2. On the other hand, Sportivo Luqueno has won 40% of their away matches in the last 5 games, with an offensive potential equal to Nacional Asuncion but a slightly lower defensive potential (57% compared to 64%), balancing the power dynamics.

3. The calculated probabilities favor Sportivo Luqueno with a win probability of 41.99% compared to Nacional Asuncion’s win probability of only 27.07%. Moreover, the odds associated with the prediction “Sportivo Luqueno wins the match” also show that bookmakers believe Sportivo Luqueno has a greater chance of winning the match.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Under 2.5”

1. The statistics from the last matches show that at home, Nacional Asuncion scores an average of 1 goal per match and concedes 1.8 goals. Similarly, away from home, Sportivo Luqueno scores an average of 1 goal and concedes 1.6 goals. There is a strong tendency to have less than 2.5 goals in the match.
2. The recent performances of Nacional Asuncion at home and Sportivo Luqueno away from home are moderate, in terms of wins and goals scored. Neither team shows a clear tendency to score many goals.
3. The probabilities indicate a higher chance (85.64%) for there to be less than 3.5 goals in the match, which supports the prediction for Under 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The performance statistics of both teams in their last 5 matches show that each of them managed to score goals in every match. Nacional Asuncion averages 1 goal per match and Sportivo Luqueno also averages 1 goal per match.

2. The respective recent matches of both teams also show that they both score and concede goals. For instance, in the last 5 home matches of Nacional Asuncion, they scored 6 goals and conceded 9 goals. Similarly, Sportivo Luqueno scored 5 goals and conceded 5 goals in their last 5 away matches.

3. The calculated probability of both teams scoring is 53.59%, which is higher than the inverse probability (both teams not scoring), which is 46.41%. These statistics support the prediction that both teams will score in this match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“More than 1.5 goals in the match”

Bet on the exact result

“Nacional Asuncion 1-1 Sportivo Luqueno”

1. Recent History: Nacional Asuncion has drawn 40% of its last 5 home matches. Furthermore, in their previous encounters against Sportivo Luqueno at home, they also ended in draws, including a 1-1 result.

2. Offensive and Defensive Potential: Both teams have very similar averages of goals scored and conceded per match (1 for Nacional Asuncion and Sportivo Luqueno). Additionally, their offensive potential is alike (36%), suggesting they both have the possibility of scoring a goal in the match.

3. Result Probability and Goal Statistics: The probability of a draw (30.94%) is higher than Nacional Asuncion’s win probability (27.07%), and the likelihood of both teams scoring is at 53.59%, which is relatively high. The most probable scenario of over 1.5 goals in the match has a success probability of 74.03%.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Nacional Asuncion has not won a single match in their last 5 home games, with 2 matches ending in draws. Furthermore, they have conceded more goals than they have scored.
Sportivo Luqueno, on the other hand, is in better form with 2 wins in their last 5 away games and a balanced goal difference.
In terms of goals, Nacional Asuncion averages 1 goal scored and 1.8 goals conceded per match, while Sportivo Luqueno has both scored and conceded an average of 1 goal per match.
The probability of Sportivo Luqueno winning is higher at 41.99%; and it is also more likely that the match ends in a draw or Sportivo Luqueno wins, with a probability of 72.93%.
Regarding goals, the odds suggest it is more likely to have over 1.5 goals in the match with a probability of 74.03%, and less than 3.5 goals with a probability of 85.64%.
Finally, it is fairly balanced as to whether both teams will score or not, with a slight preference for “yes” at 53.59%. In conclusion, the statistics slightly favor Sportivo Luqueno for this match. But football is unpredictable, and every match is a new challenge.

The potential number of goals

Nacional Asuncion, at home, has not won any of their last 5 matches. They have scored 6 goals and conceded 9 goals. Their offensive potential is at 36% and their defense at 64%.

Sportivo Luqueno, in their last 5 away games, has won 40% of matches, scored 5 goals and conceded 5 goals. Their offensive potential is at a similar level of 36%, but their defense is slightly weaker at 57%.

The probability of Nacional Asuncion winning is 27.07%. A draw is slightly more likely at 30.94%. Sportivo Luqueno has a higher probability of winning the match at 41.99%.

There is a 74.03% chance of there being more than 1.5 goals in the match. However, the data suggests that less than 3.5 goals will be scored with a probability of 85.64%.

Both teams have a 53.59% probability of scoring.

Overall, a victory for Sportivo Luqueno seems more likely, with a trend towards a low-scoring match where both teams score.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the analysis and statistics favor a favorable outcome for Sportivo Luqueno. However, with Nacional Asuncion having the ability to score goals despite their recent disappointing home performances, a draw cannot be completely ruled out.

It also appears likely that the match will see fewer than 2.5 goals, given the offensive and defensive statistics of both teams. Furthermore, match history and trends suggest that both teams are likely to score in this encounter, thus giving value to bets such as “Both teams to score: Yes” or “Over 1.5 goals in the match.”

It is important to remember, however, that while all statistics and analyses may point in a certain direction, football remains an uncertain and unpredictable sport. Each match should be treated as a unique event with its own dynamics and peculiarities. Therefore, it is always advisable to combine the statistical approach with a good deal of personal judgment and intuition when making the final decision on a bet.