Tipps Nacional Santa Clara Primeira Liga 04/11/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Santa Clara wins the match

1. The current form of Santa Clara away: in their last 5 away matches, Santa Clara has won 60% of the time, with an average of 1 goal scored per match and only 0.4 goals conceded.
2. The compared offensive and defensive potential of the two teams: Santa Clara has an offensive potential of 36% and defensive potential of 14%, while Nacional has an offensive potential of less than 7% and a defensive potential of 50%, indicating a weaker defense compared to Santa Clara.
3. The odds offered: with a success probability of 37.89%, betting on Santa Clara to win (odds 2.25) is the most likely outcome among the three possible results (Nacional win, draw, Santa Clara win).

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Nacional’s home statistics show a low average of goals scored per match (0.2) and a relatively high average of goals conceded per match (1.4), suggesting they may struggle to score and could let in a few goals.

2. Santa Clara’s away statistics indicate an average of goals per match (1), suggesting they can score, but also a fairly low average of goals conceded (0.4), so they could defend effectively.

3. The success rate of the “Under 2.5 goals in the match” bet is higher (1.57) compared to the bet on “Over 2.5 goals in the match” (2.35), meaning the chances of fewer than 2.5 goals in the match are considered more likely by the bookmakers.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Nacional has a very low offensive potential at home with only 7% and an average of 0.2 goals per match, indicating they might struggle to score against Santa Clara.
2. Santa Clara has a defensive potential of 14% in their away matches and concedes an average of 0.4 goals per match, suggesting they are well organized in defense and could prevent Nacional from scoring.
3. Based on the information, there is a 52.63% probability that both teams will not score in the match, which is higher than the probability of both teams scoring (47.37%). This indicates the game could be more defensive.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Santa Clara wins the match

Bet on the exact result

Nacional 1-2 Santa Clara

1. Santa Clara has shown a strong offensive performance in their recent away matches. With an average of 1 goal per game and an offensive potential evaluated at 36%, a prediction of 2 goals seems realistic.

2. Although Nacional has an average defensive performance at home (50%), they have conceded a total of 8 goals in their last 5 home matches, indicating a notable vulnerability in defense. This justifies the prediction of 2 goals for Santa Clara.

3. As for Nacional’s goal, their recent home matches have shown an ability to score, with a total of 8 goals in 5 matches. Despite a relatively low offensive potential (7%), a score of 1 goal is plausible, considering Santa Clara’s relatively low defensive potential (14%) away from home.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Nacional has won 60% of its home matches but has also conceded as many goals as it has scored, which is 8. Their offensive potential is at 7% and defensive potential at 50%.

Santa Clara, when playing away, has won 60% of the time and has scored 8 goals while conceding 9 goals. They have a slightly better offensive potential at 36% and a higher defensive potential at 14%.

The highest chances of victory are for Santa Clara, with a probability of 37.89%. The probabilities for a draw and Nacional’s victory are close, at 31.58% and 30.53% respectively.

In terms of goals, there is a 70% chance that the match will have more than 1.5 goals. A match with less than 4.5 goals is highly likely with a probability of 97.89%.

Considering their recent matches, Nacional has had ups and downs at home with losses against Braga and Sporting but wins against Farense, FC Porto B, and Marítimo II. Santa Clara away has shown consistency with wins against Gondomar, Casa Pia, and Estoril but losses against Benfica and Moreirense.

Based on this data, the safest prediction would be fewer than 4.5 goals in the match.

The potential number of goals

Nacional has shown a mixed performance at home with a 60% win rate but a rather weak offensive capability, scoring only 8 goals. Their defense, it should be noted, has also conceded 8 goals.

Santa Clara, on the other hand, has a good away win rate of 60%, also with 8 goals scored. Their defense has been slightly more porous, conceding 9 goals.

On average, Nacional scores few goals at home (0.2 per match) and concedes more (1.4 per match). Their offensive potential is thus quite low (7%), while their defensive potential is at 50%.

Santa Clara scores more goals away from home (1 per match) while conceding few (0.4). Their offensive potential is therefore at 36%, while their defensive potential is at 14%.

The probabilities favor a Santa Clara victory with a 37.89% chance. Less than 2.5 goals in the match seems to be a safe prediction with odds of 1.57.

Nacional’s most recent home matches have shown mixed results, while Santa Clara has demonstrated a strong away performance.

Therefore, it appears more likely that Santa Clara will emerge victorious tonight, probably with less than 2.5 goals in the match.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on statistical data, recent performances, and the offensive and defensive potential of both teams, it appears that Santa Clara has a slight advantage in this match against Nacional. The probability of Santa Clara winning the match is higher, and the match is likely to have less than 2.5 goals. Additionally, it would not be surprising to see both teams fighting hard for ball possession, resulting in a match where both teams may not score. However, it is essential to keep in mind that despite statistics and analysis, football is an unpredictable sport and each match can have unexpected outcomes. Therefore, it is always advisable to bet responsibly.