Tipps Nagoya Grampus Gamba Osaka J1 League 11/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Nagoya Grampus wins the match

1. Nagoya Grampus has a better home performance with a 40% win rate compared to Gamba Osaka’s 20% away. This shows a better recent form for Nagoya Grampus, which could be a key indicator in the prediction.
2. Offensive and defensive statistics also favor Nagoya Grampus. They have an offensive potential of 57% compared to Gamba Osaka’s 29%, and a defensive potential of 50% against Gamba Osaka’s 36%. This means that Nagoya has a higher likelihood of scoring goals and a lower likelihood of conceding them.
3. The probability of success for the “Draw or Nagoya Grampus wins the match” option is highest at 68.78%. This means that, based on the odds, this option is the most likely.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Under 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. Gamba Osaka’s offensive potential away from home is quite low, with an average of 0.8 goals per match in their last 5 games. This suggests they may struggle to score in this match.

2. Nagoya Grampus have a 50% defensive potential at home, meaning they manage to defend successfully in half of cases. This potential, combined with Gamba Osaka’s weak offensive performance, could limit the number of goals scored in this match.

3. The results of the last 5 home games for Nagoya Grampus and away games for Gamba Osaka show an overall average of goals not exceeding 2.5.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Recent statistics show that Nagoya Grampus has a balanced offensive and defensive performance in their home matches, with an average of 1.6 goals scored per game and 1.4 goals conceded. This indicates that they are capable of scoring against Gamba Osaka.

2. Despite their poor away performance with an average of 0.8 goals per game, Gamba Osaka have managed to score in some of their away matches, as evidenced by their win against Urawa Red Diamonds.

3. The “Both Teams to Score” prediction has a success probability of 56.61%, which is higher than the probability of “Both Teams Not to Score”. This confirms that both teams have the potential to score during the match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

More than 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

“Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Gamba Osaka”

1. Over their last 5 respective matches, Nagoya Grampus and Gamba Osaka have shown a similar and close level of performance, with results being quite evenly split and a high rate of matches ending in a draw or with a victory for Nagoya Grampus (68.78% success rate). Additionally, their odds for a draw (33.33%) or a win for either team are relatively close (35.45% for Nagoya Grampus and 31.22% for Gamba Osaka).

2. The exact score of 1-1 corresponds to a pronounced defensive trend from both teams. On one hand, Nagoya Grampus has conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match in their last 5 home games, while on the other hand, Gamba Osaka has scored an average of 0.8 goals in their last 5 away matches. Furthermore, the high percentage for less than 3.5 goals in the match (89.42%) indicates that the game is likely to be quite low-scoring.

3. Lastly, the odds for both teams to score in the match are 56.61%. This carries a fairly high potential and aligns well with the prediction of the exact score being 1-1. Additionally, Nagoya Grampus’ last two home matches ended with a 2-1 and 1-1 scoreline, further supporting this prediction.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Nagoya Grampus has won 40% of its last 5 home matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 6. On average, the team scores 1.6 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per match. Offensive potential of 57%, defensive potential of 50%.

Gamba Osaka, playing away, has won 20% of its last 5 matches. The team has scored 2 goals and conceded 3. On average, Gamba Osaka scores 0.8 goals and concedes 1 goal per away match. Offensive potential of 29%, defensive potential of 36%.

Regarding the prediction:
– Nagoya Grampus has a 35.45% probability of winning with odds of 2.50.
– Draw: 33.33% probability, odds of 3.10.
– Gamba Osaka: 31.22% probability of winning, odds of 2.85.

Regarding the number of goals:
– Less than 1.5 goals odds at 2.70. More than 1.5 goals have a 73.54% probability, odds of 1.42.
– Less than 3.5 goals have an 89.42% probability, odds of 1.20.
– Both teams to score has a probability of 56.61%, odds of 1.95.

Nagoya Grampus’ last home results: 2 losses, 2 wins, and 1 draw.

Gamba Osaka’s last away results: 4 losses and 1 win.

Analysis points towards a match with fewer than 3.5 goals, where Nagoya Grampus has a chance to win or draw.

The potential number of goals

Nagoya Grampus has won 2 of its last 5 home matches, scoring a total of 5 goals. On the other hand, Gamba Osaka has only won once in 5 away matches, with just 2 goals scored.

Nagoya Grampus’ offensive efficiency at home is 57% compared to 29% for Gamba Osaka on the road. Therefore, there is a higher probability that Nagoya Grampus will score in this match.

In terms of defense, Nagoya Grampus has conceded 6 goals in its last 5 home matches, averaging 1.4 goals per match. On the other hand, Gamba Osaka has conceded 3 goals in its last 5 away matches, averaging 1 goal per match.

In probability terms, Nagoya Grampus’ victory is at 35.45%, a draw at 33.33%, and Gamba Osaka’s victory at 31.22%.

There is a 73.54% probability of there being more than 1.5 goals in the match. This is one of the most likely options.

The statistics indicate that both teams will score with a probability of 56.61%.

In conclusion, the trend shows a slight advantage for Nagoya Grampus with probably more than 1.5 goals during the match.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Based on the statistics and recent performances of both teams, Nagoya Grampus seems slightly favored to win the match or at least draw, primarily due to their superior home performance. However, Gamba Osaka has shown they can score despite their poor away performance, hence the recommendation for a “both teams to score” bet.

Regarding the total goals, the “under 2.5 goals” option seems most likely due to Gamba Osaka’s low offensive potential and Nagoya Grampus’ strong defense. However, the bet on “Over 2.5 goals in the match” offers an interesting value bet with an attractive odds.

Overall, this match appears to be a balanced challenge with a slight tilt towards an advantage for Nagoya Grampus at home. It could therefore be interesting to bet on a draw or a Nagoya Grampus win, and on both teams scoring, with a total of under 2.5 goals to maximize the bet value.

Nevertheless, as always in sports betting, while statistics, forms, and current trends provide valuable insights, nothing is certain. Therefore, it is recommended to bet responsibly.