Tipps Nantes Lille Ligue 1 12/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Lille wins the match.”

1. Nantes’ Home Performance: Over their last 5 home matches, Nantes has not recorded any victories, drawing all 5 matches. Additionally, Nantes has a weak offensive performance, scoring only 2 goals and conceding 4 goals.

2. Lille’s Away Performance: Lille has had a fairly balanced performance in their last 5 away matches, winning 40% of their games and drawing in 20% of cases. They have scored 7 goals and also conceded 7, however, their offensive potential of 57% is much higher than that of Nantes.

3. Result Probabilities: According to the provided probabilities, Lille has a higher chance of winning the match with a success probability of 48.37% compared to Nantes’ 23.91%.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Nantes has shown a poor offensive performance in their last 5 home matches, having scored only 2 goals in total. This reduces the probability of seeing many goals in the upcoming match.
2. Lille, despite having an average offensive performance in their last 5 away matches, also had an average defensive performance, conceding as many goals as they scored. This suggests they could limit the number of goals scored by Nantes.
3. Betting data shows that the probability of having less than 2.5 goals in the match is quite high, offering odds of 1.75, which indicates that bookmakers are anticipating a low-scoring match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Scoring Performance: Statistics show that both teams tend to score and concede goals in their respective matches. Nantes scores an average of 0.6 goals per match and concedes an average of 1.4 goals per match, while Lille scores an average of 1.6 goals per match and concedes 1.4 goals per match away.

2. Recent Trend: Lille’s recent away performances indicate that they have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches. On the other hand, despite Nantes’ weak offensive performance at home, they have managed to score at least once in two of their last five home matches.

3. Statistical Probability: The odds also suggest a moderate probability of both teams scoring in this match, with a probability of 50.54%. This probability analysis further supports the prediction that both teams will score in this match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Nantes win the match – 1.90

Bet on the exact result

“Nantes 1-2 Lille”

1. Lille is in good form away from home, winning in 40% of cases, scoring more goals than Nantes, and having an estimated offensive potential of 57%. This gives Lille a stronger likelihood of scoring at least once.

2. Nantes, on the other hand, has not won any of their last 5 home matches, conceding more goals than they have scored (conceding 4 against 2 scored), with a defensive potential of 50%. This indicates a defensive weakness that could be exploited by Lille.

3. The probabilities also favor Lille, with a 48.37% chance of winning the match, and a probability between 70.11% and 82.07% that the total goals in the match will be between 1.5 and 3.5 goals. Therefore, a score of 1-2 is very plausible according to these probabilities.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Nantes has not won a single time in their last 5 home matches: all draws. Goals were scarce with only 2 scored and 4 conceded.

Lille shows a more favorable record away from home, with 1 win out of 2 matches. The net has shivered 7 times in their presence, but it also trembled in their own half as many times.

On average, Nantes scores only 0.6 goals at home and concedes 1.4. Lille performs better with 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on the road.

According to the probabilities, a Lille win is more likely (48.37%), with odds of 1.95. The probability of a draw or a Nantes win stands at 51.63%, with odds of 1.90.

There is a high probability of fewer than 3.5 goals (82.07%) with odds of 1.28. It is also likely that both teams will score (50.54%), with odds of 1.90.

Given the form of both teams, the most probable prediction would be a Lille win or a draw, with fewer than 3.5 goals and a chance that both teams score.

The potential number of goals

Nantes struggles at home. In 5 games, they have 0 wins and 5 draws. They have scored 2 goals, conceded 4. Their offensive potential is weak at 21%. The defense holds at 50%.

Lille is more solid. In 5 away games, they have won twice, with 7 goals scored and conceded. Offensively, they are at 57%. Defensively, similar to Nantes at 50%.

Prediction? Close game. Lille is more likely to win with 48.37%. A draw remains probable at 27.72%. Nantes to win? Less certain at 23.91%.

Regarding goals, less than 1.5 goals is at 3.20. More than 1.5 goals have a 70.11% success rate. Expecting few goals? Less than 2.5 goals at 1.75. More than 2.5 goals are at 47.28%.

Both teams could score, with a 50.54% success rate, but it’s a toss-up. Less than 4.5 goals in the match have a 93.48% probability.

Recent matches? Nantes lost to Rennes, Lyon, Strasbourg, Metz, PSG. Lille beat Metz and Sturm Graz, lost to Monaco and Aston Villa, drew at Brest.

In summary, the match is unpredictable, but Lille seems to have an advantage. The score will likely remain low. These are the numbers speaking.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, several factors can be taken into account to formulate a prediction on the match between Nantes and Lille. Firstly, based on the recent performance of both teams, Lille seems to have the edge, especially due to their superior offensive performance. However, Nantes’ high percentage of draws at home should be considered in the equation, creating an interesting value bet on a favorable outcome for Nantes or a draw.

Secondly, considering Nantes’ weak offensive display at home and Lille’s average defensive performance away, it is reasonable to bet on a match with less than 2.5 goals. Furthermore, the probability of both teams scoring is relatively balanced, which could also be an interesting bet.

Thirdly, the suggested exact score bet is Nantes 1-2 Lille, which seems probable based on the statistics of both teams and the provided probabilities. Overall, the match seems tight, but with a slight preference for Lille, with a likely low score.

That being said, it’s important to remember that in the realm of sports betting, nothing is ever certain. That’s the beauty and challenge of the game: even with all the analysis and predictions, the ball is round, and the final result is determined on the field.