Tipps Necaxa Toluca Liga MX 28/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Toluca wins the match

1. Away Performance: Toluca has a strong performance away from home with a 40% win rate and an equal 40% draw rate. This performance is bolstered by the team’s offensive and defensive potential – Toluca averages 2.2 goals scored per match and concedes an average of 0.8 goals per match.

2. Offensive and Defensive Potential: Toluca has an offensive potential of 79% and a defensive potential of 29%, significantly better than that of Necaxa, which has a much lower offensive potential of 29% and a higher defensive potential of 64%.

3. Probability of Success: According to the provided odds, the probability of Toluca winning the match is 37.59%, slightly higher than Necaxa’s win probability of 36.88%. Furthermore, the probability of Toluca either winning or the match ending in a draw is 63.12%, which is also higher than the corresponding percentage for Necaxa (62.41%).

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Over 2.5

1. Toluca has a strong offensive potential away from home, averaging 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 away matches. This implies a high probability of reaching Over 2.5 with their goal contributions.

2. Despite a weaker offensive potential at home, Necaxa shows a rather weak defensive potential (64%). This, combined with Toluca’s strong attack, increases the likelihood of seeing more than 2.5 goals in this match.

3. The indicated probability for over 2.5 goals in the match is 62.41%, which is higher than the probability for under 2.5 goals. Furthermore, looking at the results of both teams’ recent matches, there seems to be a trend towards scores exceeding 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. Recent statistics show a clear trend for both teams to score and concede goals. Necaxa has scored 7 goals and conceded 8 goals at home in their last 5 matches, while Toluca has scored 6 goals and conceded 7 goals away in their last 5 matches.

2. Toluca’s offensive potential is particularly high, with an average of 2.2 goals scored per away match, indicating that they are likely to score in this match. Additionally, Necaxa has a defensive potential of 64%, showing that they are likely to concede goals.

3. The probability calculations for the “Both teams to score” option are 60.28%, which is relatively high compared to other betting options for this match. This high probability, combined with recent scoring and conceding trends, supports the assumption that both teams will score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match”

Bet on the exact result

Necaxa 1-2 Toluca.

1. Toluca’s offensive potential away from home is very high with an average of 2.2 goals per match and an offensive potential of 79%. This could allow them to score more than Necaxa, which has a lower offensive potential at home (0.8 goals per match on average, offensive potential of 29%).

2. Toluca’s defensive potential away from home is also higher than Necaxa’s at home. Toluca concedes an average of 0.8 goals per match with a defensive potential of 29%, while Necaxa concedes an average of 1.8 goals per match with a defensive potential of 64%. This could lead Toluca to concede fewer goals than Necaxa.

3. Toluca’s recent away matches show an ability to score goals against various opponents, and Necaxa’s recent home matches prove they can concede goals. The exact score of 1-2 actually occurred in one of Necaxa’s recent home matches (against Tijuana).

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

The form of Necaxa at home is mixed. Wins and draws are at 40%. They have scored 7 goals but conceded 8.

Toluca is not faring badly away from home. Same rate of wins and draws. They have scored 6 and conceded 7.

Offensively, Necaxa at home remains shy with an average of 0.8 goals per match. They concede more: 1.8 goals per match.

Toluca is more effective away, averaging 2.2 goals scored per match. They concede less, with 0.8 goals per match.

A victory for Necaxa seems possible with a probability of 36.88%. A draw is also plausible at 25.53%.

A victory for Toluca is very conceivable with a 37.59% probability.

The choice “Draw or Necaxa win” is interesting with a 62.41% probability.

As for goals, more than 1.5 goals in the match seem very likely (81.56%). Both teams scoring is also probable (60.28%).

Analyzing the latest matches, it is noted that Necaxa struggles to win at home. Toluca, on the other hand, has had 3 positive results in their last 5 away games.

Based on these statistics, Toluca seems better placed. But be cautious, it’s not a certainty.

The potential number of goals

Necaxa, at home, is not dominant with only 40% of wins. Moreover, they concede more goals than they score on average, indicating a defensive deficit.

Toluca, playing away, also has a 40% win rate, but they score more than they concede, showing some offensive strength.

Bookmakers slightly favor a Toluca win with odds of 2.25. Nevertheless, the probability of a draw or Necaxa win is also high.

The match could see several goals, with a high probability of over 1.5 goals. Both teams have a relatively high scoring expectation.

Finally, Necaxa’s recent home games have had varied scores, and Toluca has managed to score in most of their recent away matches.

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals in the match could be an interesting option to consider.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Overall, based on the analyses and probabilities presented, it can be suggested that Toluca has better chances of winning the match against Necaxa, considering their recent performances, especially away from home. However, it is always important to remember that in football, anything can happen and any prediction always carries a percentage of uncertainty.

Furthermore, betting on the total number of goals, with the suggestion of over 2.5 goals, also seems to be an interesting option. It is noted that Necaxa has a tendency towards weak defense at home, and Toluca has shown considerable offensive capabilities away, which could potentially lead to a high-scoring match.

Regarding the proposed value bet on “under 2.5 goals in the match,” it may seem contradictory to the rest of the analyses, but could be viable due to certain distinctive factors such as trends towards low-scoring matches and solid defensive performances.

The exact predicted score is Necaxa 1-2 Toluca, based on the potential offensive and defensive abilities of each team. When making a betting decision, it is always crucial to consider the latest team news, playing conditions, and intangible factors such as player mentality. Remember that sports betting is a matter of chance and probabilities, so it should be approached responsibly.