Tipps O'Higgins A. Italiano Primera Division 06/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or O’Higgins win the match.

1. Performance history: Over their respective last 5 matches, O’Higgins has a better home record (60% of matches without a defeat) than A. Italiano away record (40% of wins). Additionally, their recent head-to-heads give an edge to O’Higgins.
2. O’Higgins defensive capability: O’Higgins has a better defensive capability (64%) compared to A. Italiano’s offensive capability (36%). This means O’Higgins has a higher likelihood of not losing against A. Italiano.
3. Sports betting statistics: Betting statistics suggest that the draw or O’Higgins’ win has a 71.28% chance of success, which is significantly higher than A. Italiano’s win probability alone (28.72%).

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Recent performance statistics show that both teams have a low offensive potential, scoring an average of only 1 goal per match.

2. Previous results also suggest that both teams have a strong defense, with an average concession rate of 1.5 goals per match, which reduces the likelihood of a match with over 2.5 goals.

3. By examining previous encounters, both for O’Higgins at home and A. Italiano away, a trend towards low-scoring matches can be observed, further supporting the prediction of under 2.5 goals for this match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. Scoring and conceding history: According to the history of the last 5 matches, O’Higgins scored 4 goals at home and A. Italiano scored 5 goals away. Additionally, O’Higgins conceded 5 goals at home and A. Italiano conceded 6 goals away. This indicates a clear trend for both teams to score and concede goals in their matches.

2. Offensive and defensive potential: On average, at home, O’Higgins scores 1 goal per match and concedes 1.8 goals per match, resulting in an offensive potential of 36% and a defensive potential of 64%. Similarly, away from home, A. Italiano also scores an average of 1 goal per match and concedes 1.2 goals per match, with an offensive potential of 36% and a defensive potential of 43%. These indicators confirm the offensive potential of both teams to score.

3. Likely match statistics: Based on statistics, there is a 51.06% probability that both teams will score during the match. This reinforces the prediction “Both teams to score: Yes” with favorable odds of 1.87.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

O’Higgins 1-1 A. Italiano

1. The draw rate for O’Higgins at home is high (40%) as well as for A. Italiano away (20%), increasing the likelihood of a final draw score.

2. O’Higgins and A. Italiano have a similar offensive potential (36% at home and away respectively), meaning both teams tend to score an average of one goal per match. This supports the prediction of a 1-1 score.

3. The probability of both teams scoring is relatively high (51.06%), aligning with the forecast of a draw with each team scoring a goal.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

O’Higgins has a very mixed performance at home. Indeed, they only win 20% of the time and often draw (40%). They also struggle to score, with only 4 goals in 5 matches and a leaky defense having conceded 5 goals. Their offensive and defensive potential is only 36% and 64%, respectively.
On the other hand, A. Italiano performs better away from home with 40% wins and 20% draws. They have scored 5 goals in 5 matches. They concede slightly more goals than O’Higgins, 6 in total, and have offensive and defensive potentials of 36% and 43%, respectively.
In terms of probabilities, O’Higgins has a 43.62% chance of winning, while A. Italiano has slightly lower chances, 28.72%. A draw is a possibility, with a probability of 27.66%.
There is a good potential for more than 1.5 goals to be scored in this match, with a success probability of 67.55%. However, do not expect a goal avalanche, as the probability that the match ends with less than 3.5 goals is 82.45%.
Both teams have almost equal chances of scoring, with a probability of 51.06%. On the other hand, the chances of both teams not scoring are slightly lower, at 48.94%.
In conclusion, this match has all the ingredients to be contested, with goals to expect but probably not too many. O’Higgins seems to be the favorite, but A. Italiano has enough potential to cause an upset.

The potential number of goals

O’Higgins, in 5 home matches, has only won once (20%). They also have 2 draws (40%) with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded.

Away from home, A. Italiano has won 2 out of 5 matches (40%) and also 1 draw (20%). They have scored 5 goals and conceded 6.

Offensively, O’Higgins has had a 36% performance at home, scoring an average of 1 goal per match. Defensively, O’Higgins has shown a 64% performance, conceding 1.8 goals per match.

In comparison, A. Italiano, when playing away from home, also has an offensive potential of 36% with an average of 1 goal per match and a defensive efficiency of 43%, conceding 1.2 goals per match.

Regarding probabilities, a match won by O’Higgins is predicted at 43.62%. A draw is at 27.66% while A. Italiano’s victory is at 28.72%.

It is more likely to see a match where less than 3.5 goals are scored (82.45%) than a match with more than 2.5 goals (47.87%). Both teams have about a 50% chance of scoring during the match.

It appears that the match will likely be low-scoring, with a slight advantage for O’Higgins, playing at home.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Concluding the analysis of this Primera División match between O’Higgins and A. Italiano, several key elements emerge to consider. Historically and statistically, O’Higgins has shown a strong performance at home and has a pronounced advantage over A. Italiano. Additionally, the defenses of both teams appear to be quite strong, hence a limited offensive potential on each side. The probabilities also favor a bet on under 2.5 goals during this match.

However, despite reasonably balanced probabilities, each team has shown a tendency to both score and concede goals, suggesting that the “both teams to score: Yes” bet could be a profitable option. The match score prediction of 1-1 reinforces this perspective.

Regarding the value bet, the prediction of under 2.5 goals in the match seems to be the most promising route due to the low offensive capacity and strong defense on both sides.

In summary, this match is likely to be tight and low-scoring, with slight but significant odds in favor of O’Higgins. It would be prudent for bettors to consider the scenario of under 2.5 goals and to anticipate that both teams are likely to score.