Tipps Pachuca Toluca Liga MX 18/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Toluca wins the match.

1. Toluca’s offensive potential is significantly higher than that of Pachuca, with 64% compared to 14% respectively. This indicates that Toluca is more likely to score goals, increasing the chances of a draw or a Toluca win.

2. Toluca’s recent away performance is also better than Pachuca’s home performance. Toluca has won or drawn in 80% of their recent away matches, while Pachuca has only won 20% of their last home matches.

3. Based on the assigned odds, the probabilities favor a draw or a Toluca win – their combined probability according to these odds is 61.76%, indicating that this scenario is more likely than Pachuca winning the match.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Over 2.5”

1. In their last 5 matches, Pachuca and Toluca have a combined average of more than 2.5 goals per game. Pachuca scored 5 goals and conceded 6, while Toluca scored 8 goals and conceded 9. This reflects the trend of these teams to play in high-scoring matches.

2. Toluca’s offensive potential in away matches is particularly noteworthy. With an average of 1.8 goals per game, their ability to score is higher than Pachuca’s home average. This could contribute to increasing the total score of the match.

3. The odds suggest a probability of 63.73% for over 2.5 goals in the match, which is a positive sign for this bet. Furthermore, in 59.8% of cases, both teams score, meaning there are good chances that both teams will contribute to this total of over 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Recent statistics show a significant offensive potential from both teams. Specifically, Toluca has scored an average of 1.8 goals per match in their last 5 away games, while Pachuca has scored an average of 0.4 goals per match in their last 5 home games.

2. The defenses of both teams have shown signs of weakness, as Pachuca concedes an average of 1.8 goals per match at home and Toluca concedes an average of 1.4 goals per match away. This suggests that each team has a strong chance of scoring at least one goal.

3. Finally, the calculated probabilities for the “both teams to score” prediction is 59.8%, which is higher than the probability of both teams not scoring (40.2%). This statistical data supports the idea that both teams are likely to score in this match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Toluca wins the match”

Bet on the exact result

Pachuca 1-2 Toluca

1. Offensive and defensive potential: On average, Toluca scores more goals and concedes fewer goals than Pachuca, indicating a greater offensive and defensive potential. Pachuca at home scores 0.4 goals per match and concedes 1.8 goals, while Toluca away scores 1.8 goals per match and concedes 1.4 goals.

2. Previous results: The results of the last 5 away matches for Toluca show that they have won or drawn in the majority of cases, with a win rate of 40% and a draw rate of 40%. In comparison, Pachuca at home has only won 20% of their matches and drawn in 40% of cases.

3. Betting statistics: The odds indicate that the match has a high probability of ending with over 1.5 goals (81.37% success rate), which aligns with our exact score prediction of 1-2. Furthermore, the prediction “Toluca wins the match” has a success probability of 37.25%, which is nearly equal to Pachuca’s win probability (38.24%), highlighting a real possibility for a Toluca victory.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Regarding the provided information, Pachuca, at home, appears weak with only 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 goals scored in 5 matches. On the other hand, Toluca, away from home, seems strong with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 8 goals scored in 5 matches.

Pachuca shows a significant weakness in offense, scoring only 0.4 goals per match. Their defense is leaky, conceding 1.8 goals per match. Toluca, on the other hand, is dynamic in attack, scoring 1.8 goals per match. Their defense is also solid, conceding 1.4 goals per match.

The match seems tight. Win probabilities are: Pachuca 38.24%, Draw 24.51%, Toluca 37.25%. “Draw or…” bets are safe: Pachuca to win or draw at 62.75%, Toluca to win or draw at 61.76%.

More than 1.5 goals have an 81.37% chance. Less than 3.5 goals have a 68.63% chance. Therefore, expect a low-scoring match.

For a safe bet, less than 4.5 goals have the highest chance at 87.25%. However, if you feel like taking a risk, both teams to score have a success probability of 59.8%.

Considering both teams’ current form, it would be prudent to bet on “Less than 3.5 goals in the match” or “Draw or Toluca to win the match”.

The potential number of goals

Pachuca struggles at home with only 1 win in their last 5 matches. Their defense also concedes more goals (1.8 on average) than they score (0.4 on average).

On the other hand, Toluca performs well away with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches. Their offensive potential stands at 64% with an average of 1.8 goals scored, and a rather resistant defense (conceding 1.4 goals on average).

Looking at the overall picture, Pachuca’s winning potential for this match is evaluated at 38.24% against Toluca’s at 37.25%, with a draw placed at a probability of 24.51%.

Things seem to point towards a tight game where both teams could score, with a probability estimated at 59.8%.

Regarding the number of goals, the option of over 1.5 goals appears to be the most predictable with a probability of 81.37%. A match with under 4.5 goals has a 87.25% chance of happening based on the statistics.

In conclusion, a balanced encounter is expected, with chances of both teams scoring. The number of goals could be over 1.5 but under 4.5.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, based on recent statistics, performance both at home and away, as well as scoring success rates, the match Pachuca vs Toluca looks to be tight with slightly higher chances of victory for Toluca despite being the away team. Toluca’s offensive potential compared to Pachuca’s defensive weaknesses could impact the final score.

The “both teams to score” prediction seems plausible given the offensive potential of each team and their tendency to concede goals at home or away. It is also likely, based on statistics, that the game will end with over 1.5 goals but fewer than 4.5 goals. Interesting value bets would therefore be on a Toluca win or draw, over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score.

Finally, in terms of exact score, a 1-2 result in favor of Toluca seems like a prudent prediction considering the recent offensive and defensive performances of both teams. However, as always, sports betting is an area where uncertainty plays a significant role, and each bettor must therefore exercise caution and only wager what they are prepared to lose.