Tipps Parma Cagliari Serie A 30/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Parma wins the match

1. Recent home performances for Parma and away performances for Cagliari suggest Parma or a draw. Parma has managed to get a result (win or draw) in 60% of its last 5 home matches while Cagliari has only done so in 40% of its last 5 away matches.

2. Parma has a higher offensive potential compared to Cagliari. On average per match, Parma scores more goals (1.6) than Cagliari (0.2) in their respective home and away fixtures. Additionally, Parma’s offensive potential is nearly eight times higher than Cagliari’s (57% vs 7%).

3. The bet “Draw or Parma win the match” also has a higher probability of success (69.9%) compared to Cagliari’s victory (30.1%), indicating that while the match could go either way, the probabilities favor Parma or a draw.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match.”

1. The offensive potential of Cagliari away from home is very low, as they only score an average of 0.2 goals per match in their last 5 away games. This significantly reduces the possibility of a high-scoring game.

2. The defensive potential of Parme at home is relatively high, at 64%, meaning they are capable of containing opposing attacks and reducing the potential number of goals scored during the match.

3. Analysis of their recent matches shows that Parme tends to be involved in low-scoring games at home, as seen in their recent results (for example, Parme 1 – 1 Fiorentina, Parme 0 – 1 Palermo, Parme 1 – 1 Cremonese). Therefore, the pace of the match could be slower, leading to fewer goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Statistics show that Parma, at home, has an offensive potential of 57% and has scored in three of their last five matches. Their defensive potential is 64%, indicating that they have conceded goals in the majority of their recent games.

2. Despite Cagliari’s low away offensive potential (7%), they have managed to score goals in two of their last five away matches. Additionally, their defensive potential of 57% suggests that they are likely to concede goals.

3. With a 59.18% probability of “both teams scoring,” it is very likely that both teams will score in this match. The fact that the bet “Over 1.5 goals in the match” has a success rate probability of 76.53% supports this assumption.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw – 34.18% chance of success: 3.60

Bet on the exact result

Parma 1-1 Cagliari

1. Past statistics: Both teams have a significant tendency to draw matches. Parma has drawn twice in their last five home matches, while Cagliari has also drawn once in their last five away matches.

2. Goal averages: In their respective last five matches, Parma has scored an average of 1.6 goals per match, while Cagliari has only scored an average of 0.2 goals per match away. Additionally, both teams tend to concede goals, with Parma averaging 1.8 goals conceded per home match and Cagliari averaging 1.6 goals conceded per away match, indicating a chance for each team to score.

3. Offensive and defensive potential: Parma has a 57% offensive potential and a 64% defensive potential at home, while Cagliari has only 7% offensive potential away with a 57% defensive potential. This suggests a low-scoring game and a potential draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Parma, at home, rarely wins (20%) but draws often (40%). They have scored 6 goals in 5 matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game. However, their defense is not solid, conceding 7 goals, averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Cagliari, away from home, shows a similar profile. They win and draw infrequently, only 20% of the time for each outcome. Their 5 goals in 5 matches reflect a weak attack, and their defense is porous with 8 goals conceded.

In the case of a draw or a Parma win, the probability is 69.9%, with odds of 1.33. For Cagliari, it is 64.29%, with odds of 1.78. For a match with over 1.5 goals, the probability is 76.53%, with odds of 1.26.

Parma’s recent home matches have not been in their favor (2 losses, 2 draws, 1 win). Cagliari, away from home, also does not seem to be in good form with 3 losses, 1 draw, and 1 win.

Therefore, a reasonable option could be a draw or a Parma win, with perhaps over 1.5 goals during the match.

The potential number of goals

Parma at home, scores an average of 1.6 goals and concedes 1.8 goals. Their offensive efficiency is at 57%. The defense stands at 64%.

In their last 5 matches, Parma has scored 6 goals and conceded 7. They win 20% of their matches, with 40% ending in a draw.

Cagliari, when playing away, has an offensive efficiency of 7%. Their defense is at 57%. Cagliari scores an average of 0.2 goals and concedes 1.6 goals.

Cagliari wins 20% of their away matches, scores 5 and concedes 8, with 20% ending in a draw.

Prediction: Parma has a 35.71% chance of winning. Betting on a draw or Parma seems interesting with a success rate of 69.9% and odds of 1.33. Both teams to score is likely at 59.18%. A match with less than 4.5 goals is expected with a 86.22% success rate.

Recently, Parma lost 2-3 against Udinese, but won against AC Milan 2-1. Cagliari lost to Lecce and drew against Modena.

Based on these statistics, a close game with less than 4.5 goals is likely, and a victory for Parma or a draw seems plausible.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, this forecast is based on detailed performance analysis of Parma and Cagliari teams. After reviewing recent performances, offensive and defensive potential, and other key statistics, it appears that the safest bet would be a draw or a Parma victory, indicated by a success probability of 69.9%. Additionally, the “Both teams to score” bet has a high chance of success, with a probability of 59.18%. However, do not expect a very offensive match, as the “Under 2.5 goals in the match” bet also has a significant probability of success.

Similarly, the option on the exact score “Parma 1-1 Cagliari” could be an interesting value to consider for sports betting, given both teams’ tendency to draw matches and score few goals.

Let’s not forget, however, the unpredictable nature of football. Even though these statistics and analyses provide an informed estimate of the likely outcome, nothing is guaranteed in sports. Therefore, it is recommended to opt for responsible sports betting.