Tipps Penarol Flamengo Copa Libertadores 27/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Flamengo wins the match

1. Flamengo’s statistics are superior to Penarol’s in terms of probability to win the match. Indeed, Flamengo has a success rate of 44.44%, compared to 26.9% for Penarol.
2. Flamengo has shown a defensive potential equal to its offensive potential (29%), meaning they have a balanced ability to score goals and prevent them, which can be a key factor in a close match.
3. Despite a recent poor away performance, Flamengo has managed to score in two out of their last five away matches. This indicates they have the ability to score goals even in unfavorable conditions.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Recent history: According to their recent matches, Penarol has an excellent record of keeping clean sheets at home, while Flamengo struggles to score away from home.

2. Goal averages: The home team, Penarol, has an average of 1.4 goals per match at home and only concedes an average of 0.4 goals per match. On the other hand, Flamengo averages 0.8 goals per match away from home. This could indicate a low-scoring match.

3. Probabilities: The odds also suggest that the match could be low-scoring, with a 93.57% probability of fewer than 3.5 goals in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes.

1. Recent statistics show Penarol’s strong offensive play at home, with an average of 1.4 goals per match and a tendency to score against all types of opponents, as evidenced by their recent 4-0 wins against Rampla Juniors and The Strongest.

2. Despite a low 20% away win rate, Flamengo has managed to score in some of their matches, as shown by their recent away results (2-1 against Corinthians SP and 1-0 against Bahia BA). This indicates that they have the ability to score goals even on the road.

3. Penarol’s defensive potential at home is relatively weak, conceding an average of 0.4 goals per match. They have also conceded 11 goals in their last 5 home matches, showing some defensive vulnerability that could be exploited by Flamengo.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Penarol wins the match – 3.00

Bet on the exact result

Penarol 1-1 Flamengo

1. The stats show that Penarol is strong at home with an 80% win rate in their last 5 matches (although they have conceded as many goals as they have scored, 11). It is therefore very likely that they will score at least one goal.

2. Flamengo struggles away from home with only a 20% win rate in their last 5 matches and on average, they score 0.8 goals per match. These stats support the idea of a low-scoring match.

3. Considering the odds, the draw is priced at 3.30 with a 28.65% chance of success. There is therefore a higher probability of a draw or Flamengo winning the match at 73.1%. Furthermore, the probability of under 3.5 goals being scored in the match is very high at 93.57%, further supporting the idea of a low-scoring match and thus a 1-1 draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Penarol has shown a strong home record, with an 80% win rate in their last 5 matches. They have been notably effective in attack, scoring 11 goals. However, they have also conceded an equal number of goals.

On the other hand, Flamengo has struggled away from home. In their last 5 away games, they have only won 20% of the time, scoring 3 goals and conceding 4.

Penarol has an average of 1.4 goals scored at home, while Flamengo only averages 0.8 goals in their away matches.

The statistics suggest a closely contested match, with Flamengo slightly favored to win with a 44.44% probability. However, Penarol should not be underestimated, with a win probability estimated at 26.9%.

Regarding the number of goals, the probabilities point towards a match with over 1.5 goals (74.85%), but under 3.5 goals (93.57%). The probability of both teams scoring is 54.97%.

Based on these statistics, a possible outcome for this match could be a low-scoring win for Flamengo or a draw with more than 1.5 goals scored.

The potential number of goals

Penarol has been strong at home, winning 80% of their last five matches. The team has scored 11 goals and conceded 11 as well. This translates to an average of 1.4 goals scored per match and 0.4 conceded, with an offensive potential of 50% and defensive of 14%.

Flamengo struggles away, winning only 20% of their last five matches. The team has scored 3 goals and conceded 4. Their average is 0.8 goals scored and conceded per match, with an offensive and defensive potential of 29%.

In terms of predictions, the odds indicate that Flamengo has a 44.44% probability of winning. However, “draw or Penarol wins the match” has a slightly higher probability of 55.56%. In goals, “under 1.5 goals” is unlikely with odds of 2.79, while “over 1.5 goals” seems more probable with odds of 1.42.

In conclusion, Penarol appears to have an advantage at home despite Flamengo’s favorable odds. A match with over 1.5 goals seems likely. It’s a match to keep a close eye on.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the match between Penarol and Flamengo is shaping up to be exciting and unpredictable. Statistics indicate Flamengo as the favorite with a 44.44% chance of winning, but Penarol, playing at home, has shown to be a strong and competitive team not to be underestimated. Taking all observations into account, a 1-1 scoreline could be a plausible scenario for the match.

However, Flamengo’s offensive potential coupled with Penarol’s slightly vulnerable defense make a match where both teams score possible. As for the total number of goals, trends and statistics suggest a match with less than 2.5 goals. It appears wise to bet on a balanced match with a low total number of goals.

Lastly, for those seeking a bet with interesting value, a bet on a potential Penarol victory, despite their underdog status, could prove profitable. As always, in sports betting, caution is advised and every bettor is encouraged to delve deeper into statistics to make an informed choice.