Tipps Petrolul Ploiesti AFC Hermannstadt Liga I 27/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

According to the statistics and data provided, I would say that the “Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti wins the match” option seems to be the most likely prediction as it has the highest success probability of 67.78%.

1. Petrolul Ploiesti has a solid defensive performance at home: during their last 5 home matches, they have shown defensive strength with a conceding potential of 21%. They have only conceded 2 goals, demonstrating their ability to stay solid in defense and limit their opponent’s offensive actions.

2. Hermannstadt shows defensive weaknesses away: in their last 5 away matches, they conceded 10 goals, averaging 2 goals per game. This indicates that their defense is weaker when playing away, which could work in favor of Petrolul Ploiesti.

3. The overall probability favors either Petrolul Ploiesti or a draw: it stands at 67.78%. Furthermore, looking at Petrolul Ploiesti’s previous home results, they have managed not to lose 3 out of 5 matches (2 draws and 1 win). This suggests that even though Petrolul Ploiesti hasn’t always won, they have significantly avoided defeat, strengthening the prediction of “Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti wins the match”.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

1. Petrolul Ploiesti’s home performance suggests a lack of offensive strength, with only 2 goals scored in their last 5 matches. This indicates they might struggle to score more than one goal in this match.

2. AFC Hermannstadt’s previous away game trend shows a moderate number of goals; however, they have also shown some defensive issues, which could help keep the goals low in this match.

3. The provided statistics show a 90.56% probability of scoring less than 3.5 goals in the match, suggesting it is highly likely to see fewer than 2.5 goals scored in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Recent statistics indicate that Petrolul Ploiesti has a 36% offensive potential at home, while AFC Hermannstadt has an 86% offensive potential away. This means that both teams have shown an ability to score goals in their recent matches.
2. Petrolul Ploiesti has conceded an average of 0.6 goals per match in their last 5 home games, while AFC Hermannstadt has conceded an average of 2 goals per match away in the same number of games. Therefore, there is a high probability that both teams will concede goals in this match.
3. The last five home matches of Petrolul Ploiesti and the last five away matches of AFC Hermannstadt have all seen at least one goal scored by one of the teams. There is a clear trend for these teams to have matches where both teams score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Petrolul Ploiesti 1-2 AFC Hermannstadt

1. The offensive potential of AFC Hermannstadt away from home is significantly higher (86%) compared to Petrolul Ploiesti at home (36%). In addition, AFC Hermannstadt has averaged 2.4 goals per match away from home, aligning with the prediction of 2 goals for this team.

2. Even though Petrolul Ploiesti has a weaker defensive potential at home (21%), they have only conceded 2 goals in their last 5 home matches, showing some resilience in defense. This could explain the prediction of only one goal conceded.

3. The forecast between the two teams is close in terms of win probability (37.78% for Petrolul Ploiesti and 32.22% for AFC Hermannstadt). However, AFC Hermannstadt has slightly higher betting odds (3.10 compared to 2.40), suggesting a slight advantage. This could explain why a AFC Hermannstadt win by 1 goal difference is considered in the forecast.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Petrolul Ploiesti struggles at home, with only a 20% win rate and a weak attack (2 goals in 5 matches). However, their defense is rather solid, conceding only 2 goals. Hermannstadt, on the other hand, performs slightly better away from home with the same win rate (20%) and a draw. Their attack seems sharper with 7 goals scored, but their defense is lacking (10 goals conceded).

On average, Petrolul Ploiesti scores 1 goal and concedes 0.6 goals per home match, highlighting limited offensive potential (36%) but some defensive solidity (21%). AFC Hermannstadt, on the contrary, has a high offensive potential away from home (86%), scoring an average of 2.4 goals per match, despite a defense equally weak to Petrolul Ploiesti’s (21%).

In terms of betting odds, the match seems close. With a success rate of 37.78%, Petrolul Ploiesti’s victory is at 2.40. The draw, with a 30% chance of success, is at 2.95. Hermannstadt’s victory is slightly less likely (32.22%) at 3.10.

Regarding the odds, it might be interesting to consider “Under 1.5 goals in the match” at 2.50. Given Petrolul Ploiesti’s weak offensive performance at home and Hermannstadt’s defensive vulnerability away, this seems like a realistic option.

Looking at the teams’ last two matches, they confirm this analysis. For Petrolul Ploiesti, 3 draws in 5 matches and only one victory, with just 1 goal scored. For Hermannstadt, despite a win and a draw, they have conceded no less than 7 goals.

In conclusion, this match should be tight, with a slight edge for Petrolul Ploiesti, but there might be fewer goals than average due to both teams’ lack of offensive efficiency.

The potential number of goals

Petrolul Ploiesti, at home, scores only 1 goal per match. Solid defensively, they only concede 0.6 goals per match. Hermannstadt shines offensively away with 2.4 goals per match and shows a defense similar to Ploiesti, conceding 0.6 goals as well.

Ploiesti has only won one of their last 5 home matches. They have scored 2 goals, without conceding more than 2. Hermannstadt, in 5 away games, has won once and drawn once. They have found the net 7 times, while conceding 10 goals.

A victory for Ploiesti has a probability of 37.78%. For Hermannstadt, the probability drops to 32.22%. There is a 30% chance of a draw.

It is likely that there will be more than 1.5 goals in this match (73.89% probability). However, the spectacle might be limited with a 90.56% likelihood of seeing less than 3.5 goals. There is a 52.78% chance that both teams will score at least one goal.

In conclusion, this game could see a low number of goals, with a slightly tilted probability of victory in favor of Ploiesti. Bettors may consider betting on less than 2.5 goals.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In summary, the detailed analysis of probabilities, team performances, and past statistics suggest a close match between Petrolul Ploiesti and AFC Hermannstadt, especially since both teams have not shown exceptional offensive efficiency in their previous matches. The most likely bet seems to be “Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti wins the match” with a success probability of 67.78%.

However, there is also a high probability (90.56%) of seeing less than 2.5 goals in the match, which could be interesting for bettors looking to minimize risks. Furthermore, although the probabilities are lower, a victory for AFC Hermannstadt could offer an interesting value bet.

Ultimately, regardless of the chosen bet, it is important to remember that every bet carries risks and nothing is 100% certain in the world of sports betting. It is therefore crucial to bet responsibly and not wager more money than one can afford to lose.