Tipps Rio Ave Farense Primeira Liga 17/08/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Rio Ave wins the match

1. Rio Ave’s home performances over their last 5 matches: With a 20% win rate and 40% draw rate, the probability of Rio Ave not losing the match is relatively high, especially considering Farense’s low away win rate.

2. Rio Ave’s defensive potential: Although the team has conceded more goals than they have scored, their defensive potential is rated at 79%. Paired with Farense’s low 21% away offensive potential, this suggests Rio Ave is less likely to lose.

3. Betting probabilities: Statistics show a win or draw probability for Rio Ave at 82.81%, which is much higher than Farense’s win probability. This is a clear indication that bookmakers also favor a draw or a Rio Ave win.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The low offensive potential of both teams: On average, Rio Ave and Farense have only scored 0.8 and 0.6 goals per match respectively in their last 5 matches. This indicates a low probability of a high number of goals in the match.
2. The defensive potential of both teams: Rio Ave has a defensive potential of 79% and Farense a defensive potential of 57%. Both teams tend to be solid defensively, thus limiting the number of goals likely to be scored.
3. Recent match trends: Furthermore, the previous matches of Rio Ave at home and those of Farense away show a trend towards relatively low scores, with few matches exceeding 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The last home matches of Rio Ave show a trend of both teams scoring, with 4 of their last 5 games seeing goals from both the home and away teams.

2. Although Farense has a less impressive offensive performance away from home, they have managed to score in 2 of their last 5 away matches. However, their defense tends to concede goals, having let in 14 goals in their last 5 away matches.

3. Overall probability statistics indicate a 53.65% success rate for both teams to score, which is slightly higher than the 46.35% success rate for both teams not to score. This suggests that both teams have offensive potential to score goals.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match.

Bet on the exact result

Rio Ave 1-1 Farense

1. History of draws: Rio Ave has notably drawn many matches at home in the last 5 matches with a 40% draw rate, and Farense also had a draw in their last away match.

2. Average goals scored/conceded: Rio Ave has a home average of goals scored and conceded that corresponds to a 1-1 scoreline (averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded), while Farense also show a trend of scoring and conceding a number of goals that could lead to a 1-1 scoreline away from home (averaging 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded).

3. Probability of success: The odds suggest that the most likely scenario is for Rio Ave to win or the match to end in a draw with a probability of 82.81%. However, when combining this with the indicated probability that over 1.5 goals will be scored (73.96%) and both teams will score (53.65%), a 1-1 scoreline emerges as a plausible prediction.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Rio Ave shines at home with a 20% win rate and 40% draws in their last 5 matches. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 8, showing a slightly vulnerable defense.
On the other hand, Farense struggles to find victories away from home with only a 20% success rate. They have scored only 2 goals and conceded 4, highlighting a glaring lack of offensive efficiency.

With an average of 0.8 goals per game, Rio Ave’s attack has an offensive potential of 29%. Their defense, conceding about 2.2 goals per game, has a defensive potential of 79%.
Farense scores an average of 0.6 goals away from home and concedes 1.6, with an offensive potential of 21% and defensive potential of 57%.

The probability of Rio Ave winning is 50.52%. A draw is at 32.29%, while Farense’s victory is lower at 17.19%. The chances of a draw or Rio Ave winning the match are at 82.81%.
The match is expected to be close in terms of goals, with a 73.96% probability of over 1.5 goals. There is a 53.65% chance that both teams will score.

By analyzing their recent matches, we can see that Rio Ave has been alternating between draws and defeats at home. Farense, on the other hand, has suffered heavy losses away from home, like against Benfica (5-0) and Guimaraes (6-1).

Based on these data, a bet on a draw or Rio Ave winning at odds of 1.25 seems to be the safest option.

The potential number of goals

The Rio Ave seems to have a quite weak defense at home, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match. On the other hand, Farense has only scored 2 goals in 5 away matches, indicating a lack of offensive strength.

In the last 5 home matches of Rio Ave, both teams scored in 60% of the cases. For Farense, they failed to score in 60% of their last 5 away matches.

With a probability of 73.96%, a bet on over 1.5 goals in the match (odds at 1.30) would be wise. Statistics also suggest that there’s a high likelihood of fewer than 3.5 goals being scored, with a success probability of 77.6% (odds at 1.30).

Lastly, Rio Ave’s victory appears more likely (probability of 50.52%), although not guaranteed. The bet on a draw or a win for Farense has a success probability of only 49.48%.

Keep all this in mind when placing your bets. Good luck!

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, current analysis favors a win or draw for Rio Ave, taking into account their recent home performances and Farense’s low away win rate. The probabilities also suggest a low-scoring match, with less than 2.5 expected goals. Additionally, despite both teams having relatively weak offensive potential, they have tended to score in their previous encounters. Therefore, a bet on “both teams to score: yes” could prove profitable.

Furthermore, considering recent score trends, a precise score of 1-1 could be a plausible and potentially profitable prediction. However, it is important to remember that sports betting always carries risk, so it is crucial to bet responsibly. Past trends do not guarantee future results, and team performances can vary from one match to another. The advice provided in this article is based on recent performances and does not guarantee a specific outcome.