Tipps Rio Ave Guimaraes Primeira Liga 04/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Guimaraes wins the match

1. Over the last 5 matches, Guimaraes wins more often than Rio Ave, with a victory proportion of 60% against 40%. This means Guimaraes is in better form and has a higher likelihood of winning compared to Rio Ave.

2. Guimaraes’ defensive potential is 57%, higher than Rio Ave’s offensive potential of 50%. This suggests Guimaraes has a greater ability to thwart Rio Ave’s attacks and limit their goals.

3. The match odds indicate that Guimaraes has a higher probability of winning the match with a 42.46% chance of success, compared to Rio Ave’s 26.26%. The odds for Guimaraes to win the match are 2.45 compared to Rio Ave’s 2.95. This reflects that the betting market also favors Guimaraes as a potential winner.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Historical scores: Based on the scores from the last 5 home matches of Rio Ave and the last 5 away matches of Guimaraes, it can be seen that the matches have produced an average of 2.4 goals and 2.6 goals respectively, suggesting a match with fewer than 2.5 goals.

2. Offensive and defensive potential: Rio Ave has a 50% offensive potential in home matches with an average of 1.4 goals per match, while Guimaraes has a 36% offensive potential in away matches with an average of 1 goal per match. Therefore, it would be statistically plausible to assume that the match could see fewer than 2.5 goals.

3. Probability of the betting market: The probability of the betting market for the match to end with fewer than 2.5 goals is also significant, at 1.66, indicating that bookmakers believe it is very likely that fewer than 2.5 goals will be scored in this match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The statistics from the last matches of both teams show a significant offensive potential. Rio Ave scored 8 goals at home in their last 5 matches, while Guimaraes scored 8 goals away in their last 5 matches. This demonstrates that both teams have the ability to score.
2. The defensive performances of both teams are not solid. Rio Ave conceded as many goals as they scored (8 goals), and Guimaraes conceded more goals (9 goals) than they scored (8 goals) in their recent away matches. This suggests that there are defensive weaknesses that could be exploited.
3. Finally, in Rio Ave’s previous home matches, it is worth noting that in 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored. Similarly, for Guimaraes away matches, in 4 out of 5 matches, both teams scored. This indicates a trend where both teams tend to score when facing each other.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match”

Bet on the exact result

Rio Ave 1-2 Guimaraes

1. Guimaraes has a better performance away from home than Rio Ave at home with a higher probability of winning (60% compared to 40%). This indicates that Guimaraes is more likely to win the match.
2. Analysis of offensive and defensive potential shows that, although Rio Ave has slightly better offensive potential at home, Guimaraes’ defensive potential away from home is significantly stronger. This allows Guimaraes to be more capable of scoring more goals on the counter-attack while maintaining a solid defense.
3. Goal statistics from the last 5 matches away for Guimaraes and at home for Rio Ave show a more favorable trend towards a 2-1 score in favor of Guimaraes. Specifically, Guimaraes has scored 8 goals and conceded 9 goals away from home, suggesting an average of around 2 goals per match, while Rio Ave has both scored and conceded 8 goals at home, suggesting an average of around 1 goal per match.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Rio Ave’s home form is mixed, with a 40% win rate and a total of 8 goals in their last 5 matches. Their offensive potential stands at 50% with an average of 1.4 goals per game.

Guimaraes, on the other hand, shows better away form with a 60% win rate. They have also scored 8 goals, with an offensive potential of 36% for an average of 1 goal per game.

Both teams have a moderate defense. Rio Ave concedes an average of 0.8 goals per game, while Guimaraes concedes 1.6.

The odds indicate a higher probability of a Guimaraes win (42.46%) compared to Rio Ave (26.26%). The draw is at 31.28%.

In terms of goals, there is a 68.72% probability of over 1.5 goals in the match, suggesting an entertaining game.

Looking at Rio Ave’s recent home matches, there have been many goals scored. As for Guimaraes, several of their recent away matches have seen 3 goals or more.

However, the probability of both teams scoring is nearly balanced, at 49.16%.

Considering all these factors, a bet on Guimaraes to win with over 1.5 goals seems sensible.

The potential number of goals

Rio Ave shows average solidity at home, winning 40% of its matches while demonstrating a balanced offensive and defensive capability with 8 goals scored and 8 goals conceded. As for Guimaraes, it manages to win 60% of its outings thanks in particular to a decent offensive with 8 goals despite an average defense that has conceded 9 goals.

In terms of their individual performances, Rio Ave is slightly more offensive with 1.4 goals per match compared to 1 for Guimaraes. However, Guimaraes is better defensively, conceding only 1.6 goals per match compared to 0.8 for Rio Ave.

In probabilities, Guimaraes is slightly favored to win with a probability of 42.46% compared to 26.26% for Rio Ave. A draw seems unlikely as neither team has drawn recently.

Most statistics suggest that fewer than 3.5 goals will be scored in the match, with a probability of 89.39%. However, there is almost an equal chance that both teams will manage to score.

In summary, a victory for Guimaraes with fewer than 3.5 goals seems to be the most probable prediction for this match.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, considering the recent performances of both teams, it seems wiser to bet on a victory for Guimaraes. Their offensive and defensive performances, along with better form in recent matches, give Guimaraes a definite advantage. Moreover, the betting market odds support this analysis.

In terms of goals, the trend appears to be leaning towards a match with fewer than 2.5 goals. Both teams have shown moderate offensive potential while being solid defensively, indicating a limited number of goals.

Regarding the “both teams to score” bet, recent statistics suggest that this is highly likely, as both teams have shown an ability to score while also having leaky defenses.

Lastly, based on the probability of the exact score, a 2-1 victory for Guimaraes seems to be the most plausible scenario. Therefore, it seems appropriate to bet on a Guimaraes victory, a total of fewer than 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams to score.