Tipps Romania Lithuania UEFA Nations League 09/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Romania wins the game.

1. Home Performance: Even though Romania has only won 20% of their last 5 home matches, they have not lost all the matches, with 20% ending in draws. This factor may play in favor of Romania when playing at home against Lithuania.
2. Probability of Victory: Based on the success probabilities, Romania has a victory probability of 76.81%, much higher than Lithuania’s 8.7%. This statistic indicates a high likelihood of Romania winning the match.
3. Defensive Potential: Romania has a higher defensive potential than Lithuania (43% vs. 14%), meaning they are more likely to prevent Lithuania from scoring goals. This factor, combined with the home advantage, strengthens the possibility of a Romanian victory.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The goals scored/conceded statistics of both teams in their last 5 matches are relatively low. On average, Romania has scored 0.8 goals per match and Lithuania 1 goal per match. Hence, the overall trend does not seem to indicate a high-scoring match.

2. Based on these same statistics, the probability analysis suggests an 82.61% chance of having less than 3.5 goals in the match. By logical extension, this also implies a high probability for a total of goals under 2.5.

3. The recent home matches of Romania and away matches of Lithuania have shown a low number of goals scored. Only two matchups in the list have exceeded the 2.5 goals mark. Most of the time, the teams do not reach this goal total, indicating that this prediction is consistent with their recent performances.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Romania’s offensive potential at home is only 29%, which means they have a low goal-scoring efficiency. Moreover, in their last 5 home matches, they have scored only 4 goals.
2. Similarly, Lithuania has a weak defensive potential with only 14%, indicating they do not concede many goals when playing away. They have only conceded 5 goals in their last 5 away matches. Additionally, they have managed to keep a clean sheet in several of these matches.
3. The probabilities also suggest that “Both teams to score” has a predicted success rate of 59.42%, which is higher than “Both teams not to score” at only a 40.58% success rate.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Lithuania wins the match.”

Bet on the exact result

Romania 1-1 Lithuania

1. The offensive and defensive potential of the two teams: Romania has an offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 43%, while Lithuania has an offensive potential of 36% and a defensive potential of 14%. This suggests that both teams are not prolific in terms of goals, indicating a potentially balanced and low-scoring match.

2. Recent results history of each team: Romania has a balanced record at home, with 20% wins and 20% draws, while Lithuania has won 60% of its away matches without managing to secure draws. This suggests that Lithuania may be able to withstand the pressures of playing away against Romania.

3. Goal-related statistics: Romania has scored 4 goals and conceded 5 in their last 5 home matches, while Lithuania has scored 5 goals and also conceded 5 in their last 5 away matches. This indicates that both teams have a tendency to both score and concede goals, which could lead to a 1-1 draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Romania, playing at home, shows a modest performance with only a 20% win rate. A downside: they have only scored 4 goals and conceded 5.

Lithuania, playing away, appears strong with a 60% win rate. They have scored and conceded 5 goals, showing an interesting balance.

Romania displays an offensive potential of 29% and a defensive potential of 43%. Based on this analysis, their attack seems weak and their defense unstable.

Lithuania, when playing away, scores an average of 1 goal per match and concedes 0.4 goals. Their offensive potential is 36% and defensive potential is 14%. They seem to be more effective.

Regarding predictions, a safer bet would be “Draw or Romania to win the match” with a 91.3% probability of success.

On the total number of goals, “Under 4.5 goals in the match” has a probability of 95.65%. However, this does not guarantee a goal fest.

In conclusion, Lithuania seems to have an offensive advantage but betting on a low-scoring match appears to be a safer choice.

The potential number of goals

Romania has a mixed record at home. They have won only once in their last five matches. They score few goals, with an average of 0.8 goals per match. Their defense is also a concern, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match.

On the other hand, Lithuania seems to be in better form away from home. They have won three of their last five matches. On average, they score 1 goal per match and concede only 0.4 goals per match when playing away.

The probabilities indicate that Romania has a 76.81% chance of winning, compared to 8.7% for Lithuania. A draw is unlikely with a 14.49% chance.

More than 1.5 goals are expected in this match, with a probability of 73.91%. And there is an 82.61% chance of fewer than 3.5 goals being scored. Both teams have a 40.58% chance of scoring.

Looking at past matches, Romania has suffered heavy defeats against the Netherlands and drawn against Bulgaria and Liechtenstein. On the other hand, Lithuania has won against Latvia and Gibraltar, but lost to Cyprus and Montenegro.

Therefore, Romania seems to be the favorite, despite their mixed form at home. It will be important to keep an eye on the Romanian defense, which appears to be weaker. Lithuania, better away from home, may try to spring a surprise.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the match between Romania and Lithuania is expected to be tight, as both teams display divergent performance rates depending on whether they are playing at home or away. Statistics and analyses suggest that the Romanian team should prevail, given their strong home performance and superior defensive potential compared to Lithuania. However, this overlooks Lithuania’s good form in away games, with an impressive 60% win rate.

Regarding the number of goals, a low-scoring match is anticipated, with a high probability of less than 2.5 total goals. This is supported by the teams’ weak offensive capabilities and solid defensive performances. The likelihood of both teams scoring is low, reflecting their struggles to score goals.

Furthermore, although the probability of a Lithuania win is low, betting on this outcome could offer interesting value, considering the higher odds assigned to such a result. Therefore, bettors are advised to consider this option as a potential value bet, despite the inherent risk.

Finally, a plausible hypothesis regarding the exact score could be a 1-1 draw, taking into account recent performances, offensive and defensive potentials, average goals, and historical scoring records of both teams.

In summary, the outcome of this match is not clear-cut, and bettors should exercise discretion and consider all these factors when making their decision.