Tipps Sagan Tosu Avispa Fukuoka J1 League 28/09/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Avispa Fukuoka wins the match”

1. Avispa Fukuoka has a higher probability of winning the match (43.68%) according to the provided statistics, compared to their opponent Sagan Tosu who has a success probability of 25.79%.

2. In their recent away matches, Avispa Fukuoka has scored more goals (5) than Sagan Tosu at home (3), demonstrating better offensive efficiency.

3. Sagan Tosu seems to struggle at home, with a 0% win rate in their last 5 matches, conceding more goals (5) than they have managed to score (3). This gives Avispa Fukuoka an advantage.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5

1. The performance statistics of both teams indicate a lack of offensive output: Sagan Tosu has scored an average of 0.6 goals and Avispa Fukuoka has scored an average of 0.4 goals per match in their last 5 games, which could lead to a low-scoring match.

2. The teams have a history of low-scoring games: In Sagan Tosu’s last 5 home games, three had less than 2.5 goals. Similarly, four out of five of Avispa Fukuoka’s last away games had less than 2.5 goals.

3. Both teams are more defensive than offensive: with a defensive potential of 79% for Sagan Tosu and 57% for Avispa Fukuoka, both teams are more likely to focus on defense, which could also result in a low-scoring match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. The performance statistics of both teams in their last 5 respective matches are not encouraging in terms of scoring. Sagan Tosu has scored only 3 goals at home while Avispa Fukuoka has scored 5 goals away, reflecting a low level of offensive performance.

2. The offensive potential of Sagan Tosu is only 21% at home and Avispa Fukuoka’s is even lower at 14% away. Furthermore, their respective defensive performances are 79% and 57%, suggesting they are more likely to maintain their defensive stance, thus reducing the chances of both teams scoring during the match.

3. Predictive scoring statistics show a high probability of having less than 3.5 goals during the match with a success rate of 81.05%. Given the weak offensive performances of both teams, it is therefore logical to bet on both teams not scoring.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match.”

Bet on the exact result

Sagan Tosu 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka

1. Recent Statistics: Based on recent statistics, Sagan Tosu and Avispa Fukuoka both have a high percentage of draws in their last 5 matches (80%). This indicates a trend towards tight matches and shared scores between them. Additionally, they both have a low average of goals scored and conceded per match, showing that they are balanced in terms of both attack and defense.

2. Betting Probabilities: Betting probabilities also suggest that a draw is the most likely outcome (30.53%), which aligns with the recent trends of both teams.

3. Home and Away Team Performances: The recent performances of Sagan Tosu at home and Avispa Fukuoka away also highlight a tendency towards draws. This could be due to their playing strategies, with a more defensive approach to secure the draw, especially when playing away or against equally strong teams.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Sagan Tosu at home shows a poor performance. They haven’t won any of their last 5 matches and have drawn 4 times. With an offensive potential of 21%, they have scored only 3 goals and conceded 5.

Meanwhile, Avispa Fukuoka, playing away, has also not won any of their last 5 matches, with 4 draws. The team has an offensive potential of 14%, scoring 5 goals and conceding 6.

In terms of probabilities, there is a leaning towards Avispa Fukuoka with a 43.68% probability of winning the match, compared to only 25.79% for Sagan Tosu. However, a draw is still possible, with a probability of 30.53%.

The number of goals seems to be low in this match, with a 71.58% probability of fewer than 1.5 goals and an 81.05% probability of fewer than 3.5 goals.

As for both teams to score, it is almost equal with a slight edge for the “yes” option at 51.05%.

In summary, a low-scoring and relatively balanced match is expected, with a slight advantage for Avispa Fukuoka.

The potential number of goals

In the last 5 home games, Sagan Tosu has not won any matches but has drawn 80% of them. They have scored a low total of 3 goals and conceded 5, showing a lack of offensive efficiency and defensive fragility. On the other hand, Avispa Fukuoka has also not won away recently but has drawn in 80% of cases, scored 5 goals, and conceded 6.

In terms of averages, Sagan Tosu has scored 0.6 goals per home game and conceded 2.2. Avispa Fukuoka, on the other hand, has scored fewer with 0.4 goals per game and conceded 1.6. This suggests a potentially low-scoring match.

Probabilities indicate that Avispa Fukuoka has a higher chance of winning at 43.68%. However, there is a 56.32% chance that the match will end in a draw or a Sagan Tosu victory. It is also worth noting that the probability of both teams scoring is 51.05%.

Given this information, a cautious final result could be “Under 2.5 goals in the match” at odds of 1.70. This bet has a lower success probability of 43.16%, but based on the recent performances of both teams, it seems realistic.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, after a detailed analysis of the available data, it appears that the Avispa Fukuoka team has a slight advantage for the match against Sagan Tosu. Both teams seem to be going through a low-performing phase in terms of victories. Furthermore, their low goal rates suggest a low-scoring match. The safest bet for bettors would be to bet on “Under 2.5 goals in the match,” although the match result is unpredictable due to the current forms of both teams. Predicting the exact score remains risky, although “Sagan Tosu 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka” seems in line with the offensive and defensive potential of both teams. All these forecasts should be considered with caution, and each bettor should take into account their own analyses and convictions before placing their bet.