Tipps Saint Etienne Auxerre Ligue 1 05/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Auxerre wins the match”

1. Auxerre’s offensive potential away from home is superior to that of Saint Etienne at home. With an average of 1.2 goals scored per match compared to 0.6, Auxerre has a better chance of scoring in this match.
2. Although Saint Etienne has a good home win record, they have also conceded a high number of goals in their home matches – an average of 3.2 goals per game. Auxerre could exploit this defensive weakness.
3. The chances of success indicate that Auxerre has a slightly better chance of winning the match with a success probability of 37.82% compared to 36.54% for Saint Etienne. This statistic suggests there is a very slight tilt in favor of Auxerre.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Over 2.5 goals in the match

1. The statistics show that Saint Etienne and Auxerre tend to concede a lot of goals each, averaging 3.2 and 2.2 goals per match respectively. This indicates that their defenses may be vulnerable, thus increasing the likelihood of a match with over 2.5 goals.

2. Auxerre’s away performances indicate an average of 1.2 goals scored per match, which, combined with Saint Etienne’s home offensive potential (0.6 goals per match on average), could lead to a highly offensive match and therefore more goals.

3. By analyzing the recent home matches of Saint Etienne and away matches of Auxerre, 7 out of 10 have had over 2.5 goals. This recent trend towards high-scoring matches suggests that our prediction of over 2.5 goals is plausible.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. History of goals scored and conceded: Both teams have a good history of scoring goals in their previous matches, with Saint Etienne scoring 8 goals in their last 5 home matches and Auxerre scoring 7 goals in their last 5 away matches. Additionally, both teams have also conceded 8 goals each in their last 5 matches, indicating the possibility of both teams scoring.

2. Offensive and defensive potential: Saint Etienne has a home offensive potential of 21% and Auxerre has an away offensive potential of 43%. These statistics show that both teams have the ability to score goals. Furthermore, Saint Etienne’s defensive potential of 114% and Auxerre’s of 79% also indicate the possibility of conceding goals.

3. Statistical probability: The statistical probability for “Both teams to score” is 64.1%, which is higher than “Both teams not to score” at 35.9%. This higher probability also supports the prediction that both teams will score in the match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match: 1.96

Bet on the exact result

Saint Etienne 1-1 Auxerre

1. Historical trend: The recent home matches of Saint Etienne show a strong trend to win but also to concede goals, while the recent away matches of Auxerre indicate a trend to score but also to concede more goals.
2. Home and away match statistics: Saint Etienne has scored an average of 0.6 goals per home match, compared to Auxerre’s 1.2 away. Similarly, Saint Etienne concedes significantly more goals at home (an average of 3.2) compared to Auxerre away (an average of 2.2), which could lead to a close score.
3. Probabilities around the match: The suggested forecast indicates a probability of a draw or either team winning of around 63%, along with a 64.1% probability that both teams score at least one goal. Considering these probabilities alongside the scoring trends at home and away, a 1-1 score seems logical.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

St. Etienne is in good form at home. They have won 80% of their last 5 matches, despite a balanced record of goals scored and conceded (8-8).

Auxerre struggles away from home, with only a 20% win rate and a similar goal balance of 7 scored and 8 conceded.

Offensively, Auxerre has the edge with a 43% potential to score compared to St. Etienne’s 21%. However, the home team defends better with a 114% defensive rate against Auxerre’s 79%.

The probability of victory is almost equal between the two teams, with St. Etienne at 36.54% and Auxerre at 37.82%. However, there is a 62.18% chance of a draw or a St. Etienne win.

Bettors anticipate a high-scoring match, with over 1.5 goals having an 80.13% likelihood. Despite St. Etienne’s strong defense, both teams are expected to score with a 64.1% probability.

Looking at recent history, St. Etienne has defeated teams like Lille and Villarreal at home, while Auxerre has suffered losses against Montpellier and Le Havre in their away games.

My prediction: St. Etienne at home could capitalize on this, but potential surprises should not be ruled out. Be cautious in your bets.

The potential number of goals

Saint Etienne shows some strength at home, with an 80% win rate. However, they have scored and conceded the same number of goals: 8. An unstable balance.

Auxerre struggles away from home. They have only secured victories in 20% of cases. The same percentage applies to their draws. Their 7 goals scored indicate a weakness in attack.

Saint Etienne leaks 3.2 goals per home match, a significant defensive weakness. Their 0.6 goals scored per match reinforce this image of inconsistency.

Auxerre doesn’t fare much better away from their home ground. 2.2 goals conceded per match indicate a leaky defense. However, they score an average of 1.2 goals per match, a positive sign.

In terms of probabilities, the chances of Saint Etienne winning or the match ending in a draw are at 62.18%. This statistic can guide our prediction.

The goal market is interesting with 80.13% for “over 1.5 goals.” Several indicators suggest a high-scoring match.

Finally, the last five matches of each team are revealing. Saint Etienne shows better form at home, while Auxerre struggles away.

In conclusion, this match seems uncertain, despite a slight advantage for Saint Etienne at home. A high-scoring match is conceivable.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, this prediction foresees a closely contested match between Saint Etienne and Auxerre. Saint Etienne holds a slight advantage due to their good form at home, which could be offset by Auxerre’s potentially more offensive away tendencies. While the odds point towards an Auxerre win or a draw, the offensive and defensive capabilities of each team suggest a high-scoring match, with a 1-1 scoreline prediction being quite plausible.

However, given the inconsistency in both teams’ offense and defense, caution is advised when placing bets. The potentially valuable odds seem to lie in the over/under 2.5 goals market and both teams to score. As always in sports betting, nothing is guaranteed, and it is essential to bet responsibly.