Tipps Santa Fe Independiente Medellin Primera A 19/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

The prediction for this match is “Draw or Santa Fe Bogota wins the match”.

1. Past statistics strongly favor Santa Fe Bogota when playing at home. They have won 40% of their last 5 home matches and drawn in 20% of cases. This shows they have a home advantage.

2. Independiente Medellin struggles to win when playing away. They have only won 20% of their last 5 away matches and drawn in 40% of cases. Their away performance has been poor recently.

3. The combined probability of Santa Fe Bogota winning or a draw is 81.38%. The likelihood of success is therefore strongly in favor of “Draw or Santa Fe Bogota wins the match”.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The offensive potential of Santa Fe Bogota at home and Independiente Medellin away is moderate, averaging 1.2 and 0.8 goals per match respectively. This suggests a low goal-scoring presence.
2. Recent performances of both teams show a generally low number of goals. In their respective last 5 matches, Santa Fe Bogota scored 6 goals and conceded 7, while Independiente Medellin scored 3 goals and conceded 4.
3. The probability for less than 2.5 goals in the match is 1.60, indicating that bookmakers also anticipate a low-scoring match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. The Santa Fe Bogota statistics at home show that they fail to score in 40% of their recent matches. Additionally, they have a low average of 1.2 goals per game.
2. Independiente Medellin displays a poor offensive performance in their away matches, scoring only an average of 0.8 goals per game. They have only scored in 60% of their recent away matches.
3. The probability of both teams not scoring is 54.48%. The odds also support this prediction with odds of 1.72. The previous match trends for both teams also highlight this scenario.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw or Independiente Medellin wins the match – 1.95

Bet on the exact result

Santa Fe Bogota 1-1 Independiente Medellin

1. Match history: Recent home results for Santa Fe Bogota and away results for Independiente Medellin show a trend towards low scores and draws. For instance, in two out of Santa Fe Bogota’s last five home games, there was a 1-1 or 0-0 draw. Similarly, past results show a similar trend for Independiente Medellin in their away matches.

2. Goal statistics: On average, Santa Fe Bogota scores 1.2 goals per home game and Independiente Medellin scores 0.8 goals per away game. These stats support the idea of a potential 1-1 draw. Additionally, both teams have low conceding rates (0.6 for both), confirming the possibility of a low total number of goals in the match.

3. Match result probabilities: The probabilities indicate a higher chance of a draw (34.48%) or a Santa Fe Bogota win (46.9%) than an Independiente Medellin win (18.62%). This reinforces the idea that both teams could score a goal each contributing to a 1-1 draw.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

In their last 5 matches, Santa Fe Bogota won 40% of their home games, while Independiente Medellin only managed to win 20% of their away matches. Santa Fe’s offensive seems stronger with 1.2 goals per game compared to Medellin’s 0.8.

Santa Fe has also conceded fewer goals than Medellin, strengthening their defensive advantage. This results in higher win probabilities for Santa Fe Bogota (46.9%) than for Independiente Medellin (18.62%).

Despite Medellin’s solid defense, the probability of a match ending with both teams not scoring is 54.48%.

Regarding goals, there is a 66.9% chance of the match having over 1.5 goals, but only a 42.76% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Based on recent performances, with a 0-2 win against Once Caldas, Independiente Medellin could come out on top. However, Santa Fe Bogota’s 3-1 victory over Boyaca Chico suggests they also have a chance.

My prediction would lean towards a draw or a win for Santa Fe Bogota, with an 81.38% success rate. It’s a safe bet, but less profitable with odds of 1.20.

The potential number of goals

Santa Fe Bogota has shown a decent performance at home with a 40% win rate. They have scored 6 goals but also conceded 7 goals, suggesting a somewhat fragile defense.

Independiente Medellin, on the other hand, has been weak away from home, winning only 20% of their matches and scoring just 3 goals. They have been cautious, conceding 4 goals.

Statistically, Santa Fe Bogota is favored to win at 46.9%. The draw is at 34.48%, while an Independiente Medellin victory is less likely at 18.62%.

Low scores are expected, with odds of 2.80 for under 1.5 goals and 1.60 for under 2.5 goals. Also, there is a 54.48% chance that both teams will not score.

Based on previous matches, defenses seem to have the upper hand over attacks, resulting in low-scoring games.

Overall, the indicators suggest a low-scoring match where Santa Fe Bogota has the best chances of winning.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Based on the various analyses and statistics gathered, we would be inclined to bet on a draw or a victory for Santa Fe Bogota. This conclusion is based on Santa Fe Bogota’s success rate at home, coupled with Independiente Medellin’s difficulties in away matches.

However, it should be noted that the offensive potential of each team is moderate, suggesting a low-scoring match. The most sensible bet would be to wager on a total of under 2.5 goals in the match, supported by the fact that the last two matches of each team have produced low scores.

Lastly, from the bookmakers’ perspective, the bet offering the highest value would be a draw or a victory for Independiente Medellin. Nonetheless, it is important to always remember that despite all statistics and analyses, football remains an unpredictable sport. Therefore, it is advisable to always bet responsibly.