Tipps Santa Fe Millonarios Primera A 27/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Based on the provided data, my prognosis would be “Draw or Millonarios Bogota wins the match”. Indeed, Millonarios Bogota has the same success rate away as Santa Fe Bogota at home, and a significantly higher draw rate away. And even though Santa Fe Bogota has a higher offensive potential at home, Millonarios Bogota’s defensive potential away is also higher.

1. Historical performances of both teams show an equality in success rate: Santa Fe Bogota wins 40% of their home matches and Millonarios Bogota also wins 40% of their away matches. In addition, Millonarios Bogota has a 40% draw rate away from home.

2. Despite Santa Fe Bogota having a higher offensive potential at home (43% compared to Millonarios Bogota’s 36% away), Millonarios Bogota’s defensive potential away from home is higher (14% for Santa Fe Bogota at home compared to 7% for Millonarios Bogota away), which could counter Santa Fe Bogota’s offense.

3. Previous match statistics show that Santa Fe Bogota has conceded more goals at home (6 goals) than Millonarios Bogota away (9 goals). Therefore, this gives Millonarios Bogota a better chance of scoring and potentially winning the match or securing a draw.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5

1. Match history: Looking at the last 5 home matches played by Santa Fe Bogota and the away matches played by Millonarios Bogota, there have been a total of 24 goals scored in 10 matches, resulting in an average of 2.4 goals per match. This average is below 2.5.
2. Offensive and defensive proportions: Santa Fe Bogota averages 1.2 goals scored at home and concedes an average of 0.4 goals, while Millonarios Bogota averages 1 goal scored away and concedes an average of 0.2 goals. These statistics suggest that both teams tend to have low-scoring matches.
3. Both teams have low chance of scoring: Based on the information provided, there is a 100% chance that both teams will not score in the match. This indicates that the match is likely to be low-scoring, further supporting the prediction of under 2.5 goals in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams score: Yes

1. Past Statistics: Santa Fe Bogota has scored at least one goal in 80% of its last 5 home matches, and Millonarios Bogota has scored in 100% of its last 5 away matches.

2. Offensive and Defensive Performances: Both teams have good offensive potential, with Santa Fe Bogota at 43% and Millonarios Bogota at 36%. Additionally, both teams have a weak defensive potential, with Santa Fe Bogota conceding an average of 0.4 goals per match and Millonarios Bogota conceding an average of 0.2 goals per match, indicating a likelihood of both teams scoring at least one goal.

3. Recent Results: In their recent matches, both teams have shown an ability to score goals, with match scores indicating both teams scoring, such as Santa Fe Bogota 1 – 1 Deportivo Pereira and Atletico Bucaramanga 1 – 1 Millonarios Bogota.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Santa Fe Bogota 1-1 Millonarios Bogota

1. Draw statistics: In their last 5 matches, Santa Fe Bogota has drawn in 20% of cases, while Millonarios Bogota has drawn in 40% of cases away from home, resulting in an average of 30% draws between the two teams. This indicates a tendency towards balance in their performances.

2. Goals scored and conceded history: Over their last 5 matches, Santa Fe Bogota has averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded per match at home. Millonarios Bogota has averaged 1 goal scored and 0.2 goals conceded per match away from home. These statistics suggest that both teams have the ability to score at least one goal each, but also have a solid defense to avoid conceding more.

3. Recent match results: In their recent home matches, Santa Fe Bogota obtained a 1-1 draw against Deportivo Pereira, indicating they can achieve a similar result against other teams of comparable level. Similarly, Millonarios Bogota secured 1-1 draws against Atletico Bucaramanga and Once Caldas in their recent away matches, suggesting they can also achieve similar results on the road.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

The match between Santa Fe Bogota and Millonarios Bogota is expected to be tight. Indeed, both teams have a win rate of 40% in their last 5 matches. Their offensive performances are also similar, with Santa Fe Bogota averaging 1.2 goals per match while Millonarios Bogota scores around 1 goal per match.

However, Santa Fe Bogota seems to be slightly weaker defensively, conceding 0.4 goals per match compared to 0.2 for Millonarios Bogota. In terms of scores, there is a low probability of goals in the match, with a 100% probability of fewer than 3.5 goals in the match.

The recent home matches of Santa Fe Bogota show a pattern of alternating between victory, draw, and defeat, without a clear trend. A similar observation for the away matches of Millonarios Bogota where they manage to score on multiple occasions but not necessarily keep a clean sheet.

Based on these data, it is difficult to predict a winner. The match is poised to be evenly matched. However, the match is more likely to end with fewer than 3.5 goals.

The potential number of goals

For Santa Fe Bogota, we can observe that in their last 5 home matches, they have won 2 times, equivalent to 40% of the matches. They have also drawn one match. They have scored a total of 5 goals, but have also conceded 6, indicating a need to improve their defense.

As for Millonarios Bogota, in their last 5 away games, they have secured 2 victories and 2 draws, evenly splitting their wins and draws with a 40% statistic each. In terms of goals, they have scored 7 but conceded 9.

From a statistical standpoint, Santa Fe Bogota averages 1.2 goals per home match while conceding 0.4 goals per home match. On the other hand, Millonarios Bogota has an average of 1 goal per away match with 0.2 goals conceded per match on average.

Although the win probabilities for each team are equal, the offensive and defensive potential appears higher for Santa Fe Bogota. However, with a 100% probability of success, we can predict that there will be fewer than 3.5 or 4.5 goals during the match, and that both teams will not score.

Making a prediction based on this information remains uncertain, but it would be likely to expect a low-scoring match, given the defensive capabilities of both teams.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the match between Santa Fe Bogota and Millonarios Bogota looks to be evenly matched, although it is difficult to define a clear winner based on the current data. However, the analysis reveals some potential trends that one could bet on.

For the 1X2 prediction, the safest choice seems to be “Draw or Millonarios Bogota to win the match,” in line with both teams’ past performances and their ability to maintain a balanced level of play. As for the over/under and BTTS, the data suggests a low-scoring match, with a high probability of fewer than 2.5 goals. This is also supported by the high likelihood of both teams not scoring during the match.

In terms of value bets, the “Draw” seems to be an intriguing bet given the teams’ balance, despite the risks it may entail. Lastly, the bet on the exact score indicates a potential score of 1-1, aligning with past performances and recent trends of both teams.

Nevertheless, it is crucial to remember that despite expertise and detailed analysis, sports betting always involves an element of uncertainty. The randomness and unpredictable nature of sports make any prediction foolproof impossible. Therefore, it is always recommended to bet responsibly and only risk amounts you are willing to lose.