Tipps Sassuolo Lecce Serie A 21/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Sassuolo win the match.

1. Recent team performance statistics show that Sassuolo has a higher probability of success at home than Lecce away, with 20% wins for Sassuolo compared to 20% for Lecce, but also 40% draws for Sassuolo against 20% for Lecce, indicating a higher likelihood of a draw or a Sassuolo win.

2. Sassuolo has demonstrated a stronger offensive and defensive track record, averaging 1.4 goals scored and also conceded per match at home, compared to Lecce who averages only 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per match away. This clearly indicates that Sassuolo has more potential to score goals than Lecce.

3. Analysis based on predicted probabilities further reinforces this prediction, with a predicted probability of 68.37% for a draw or Sassuolo win. This probability is higher than that of a draw or Lecce win (63.27%) and significantly higher than that of a Lecce win (31.63%).

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. Recent statistics show that Lecce’s offensive potential is low on average during their away games (0.4 goals per match), so they are likely to score few goals in this match against Sassuolo.
2. On the other hand, Sassuolo, despite having a decent offensive potential at home (1.4 goals per match), has an identical defensive potential (conceding 1.4 goals on average), which shows some difficulty in containing opponent attacks and thus a tendency to limit goals scored in their matches.
3. Finally, by analyzing the scores of the last home matches of Sassuolo and the away matches of Lecce, it can be observed that the total number of goals rarely exceeds 2.5 goals, which aligns with the predicted forecast of under 2.5 goals in the match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The recent history of both teams shows a recurring tendency to score goals. In their last 5 matches, Sassuolo has scored an average of 8 goals at home, and Lecce has scored 2 goals away.
2. Furthermore, the defense of each team concedes goals, with an equivalent average of 1.4 goals per match for Sassuolo at home, and 0.8 goals per match for Lecce away. The fact that both teams concede goals increases the probability for each team to score.
3. Finally, the calculated probability that both teams will score during the match is 53.06%, which is higher than the average of 50%. This high rate strengthens the idea that the bet “Both teams to score: Yes” is a good choice.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw – 3.50

Bet on the exact result

Sassuolo 1-0 Lecce.

1. Lecce’s poor offensive performance away from home: With an average of 0.4 goals scored per match and an offensive potential of only 14%, Lecce’s chances of scoring a goal are low. Furthermore, they have only managed to score 2 goals in their last 5 away matches, which supports this viewpoint.

2. Sassuolo’s defensive potential at home: On average, Sassuolo concedes 1.4 goals per match at home, but with a defensive potential of 50%, there is a good chance they will not concede a goal. Moreover, in their last 5 home matches, they have only conceded 11 goals, which is not excessive considering Lecce’s offensive performances.

3. Sassuolo winning by a one-goal margin is a common scenario: In Sassuolo’s last 5 home matches, they have scored exactly 1 goal in three matches (against AC Milan, Udinese, and Frosinone). Combined with Lecce’s weak offensive potential, a 1-0 victory for Sassuolo is a very plausible prediction.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Sassuolo, at home, has a low win rate (20%) and a tendency towards draws (40%) in the last 5 matches. However, they are a high-scoring team: 8 goals in total.

Lecce shows a similar performance on the road with only a 20% win rate and poor offensive performance (2 goals scored).

The average goals per match for Sassuolo remains interesting at 1.4 goals, while Lecce struggles with only 0.4 goals on average away from home.

Sassuolo’s form gives them a 36.73% chance of winning compared to Lecce’s 31.63%.

The offensive potential still favors Sassuolo (50%) over Lecce (14%).

There is a probability of over 1.5 goals in the match at 76.53%. The option “both teams score” is also possible with a probability of 53.06%.

Regarding predictions, the “Draw or Sassuolo wins the match” option seems promising with a success rate of 68.37%. The match could also have fewer than 4.5 goals (91.84% probability).

In conclusion, Sassuolo seems to have the advantage at home, but caution is advised due to the number of draws. The “Draw or Sassuolo wins” option could be a safe bet.

The potential number of goals

Sassuolo has a mixed performance at home, with only 20% wins and 40% draws. They have scored 8 goals but also conceded 11 goals. Their offensive and defensive potential is at 50%. Lecce, when playing away, also has a moderate performance with 20% wins and 20% draws, having scored only 2 goals and conceded 6. Their offensive potential is low at 14% and their defensive ability is only 29%.

The prediction shows a slightly higher probability for a draw or a Sassuolo win at 68.37%. The odds also suggest more than 1.5 goals in the match with a 76.53% chance. Looking at previous scores for Sassuolo at home and Lecce away, it may be expected that there will be less than 3.5 goals with a 72.96% probability.

Finally, both teams have a 53.06% chance of scoring during the match. As Sassuolo and Lecce do not shine either offensively or defensively, this prediction should be taken into account for betting.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the different analyses presented above allow us to make several interesting predictions. Firstly, Sassuolo seems to have an advantage over Lecce, given their better home performance compared to Lecce’s away performance. However, it should be noted that Sassuolo tends to draw frequently at home.

Based on this information, a safe bet could be “Draw or Sassuolo wins”, with a success probability of 68.37%. On the other hand, the match seems likely to have a low number of goals, suggesting that the bet “under 2.5 goals in the match” could be a good option to consider.

Regarding the bet “Both teams to score: Yes”, despite the offensive weaknesses of both teams, statistics show a tendency for them to score goals, giving it a probability of 53.06%, which may suggest it as an option to consider.

The bet with an interesting value bet seems to be the draw with odds at 3.50. Finally, the predicted exact score for this match would be 1-0 in favor of Sassuolo, considering Lecce’s weak offensive potential away and Sassuolo’s decent defensive performance at home.

However, it is important to note that sports betting always involves a certain level of risk, and it is crucial to bet responsibly, only wagering what you are prepared to lose.