Tipps SC Freiburg FC Heidenheim Bundesliga 11/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Fribourg wins the match

1. Fribourg has a higher probability of winning the match, at 57.37%, compared to Heidenheim, whose probability of winning is only 21.05%. This probability is based on past performances and serves as a valuable indicator for making predictions.

2. Despite having a lower offensive potential than Heidenheim (29% versus 50%), Fribourg has shown the ability to score more goals at home compared to Heidenheim away. In the last 5 matches, Fribourg scored 9 goals while Heidenheim only scored 7.

3. In Fribourg’s recent home matches, there has been an average of 1.8 goals scored by Fribourg (9 goals in 5 matches), whereas Heidenheim has an average of 1.4 goals away from home (7 goals in 5 matches). Fribourg seems to have a tendency to be more prolific on their home turf.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Over 2.5”

1. Both teams show a significant offensive potential based on their previous statistics. Fribourg scores an average of 0.8 goals per home match, while Heidenheim scores 1.4 goals per away match. By adding these figures together, one can expect a total of over 2.5 goals in the match.

2. The recent home results of Fribourg and away results of Heidenheim suggest a trend towards having more than 2.5 goals in their respective matches. Fribourg’s last five home matches have seen a total of 20 goals, while Heidenheim’s last five away matches have had a total of 15 goals. This indicates a strong possibility of a match with over 2.5 goals.

3. According to the provided probabilities, there is a success rate of 59.47% for over 2.5 goals in the match. This is a strong argument in favor of this prediction.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The statistics of both teams show a propensity to score and concede goals, with Fribourg having an offensive potential of 29% and Heidenheim an offensive potential of 50%. This trend is supported by the past performances of both teams in their respective last five matches.

2. The last five home matches of Fribourg and the last five away matches of Heidenheim show that both teams regularly score, with Fribourg scoring at least one goal in every match and Heidenheim scoring at least one goal in four out of the five matches.

3. The statistic showing that both teams score has a success probability of 55.26%, thus supporting the argument that this will be the case in the upcoming match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw

Bet on the exact result

Fribourg 1-1 Heidenheim

1. Match history: Both teams have shown a tendency to draw in 60% of their respective last 5 matches. Furthermore, the exact scores of their recent encounters also show a recurrence of moderate results and a fairly balanced competition between the two.

2. Goal statistics: Fribourg averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per match, while Heidenheim averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per match. These statistics indicate that both teams are more likely to score and concede a goal during the match, which supports a prediction of a 1-1 scoreline.

3. Probability of outcomes: Odds and success probabilities suggest a higher probability of under 2.5 goals in the match (59.47%), and a relatively high probability of both teams scoring (55.26%). These probabilities also support a prediction of a 1-1 scoreline.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Fribourg at home has been unstable recently. The team has won only 1 match out of 5. Additionally, they have conceded 12 goals in their last 5 home matches, highlighting their defensive fragility.

Heidenheim, on the other hand, doesn’t have an excellent away record. Like Fribourg, they have only won 20% of their matches. However, their attacking potential is higher than Fribourg’s, averaging 1.4 goals per match.

The odds are heavily in favor of Fribourg winning with a 57.37% probability. However, with 60% of matches ending in draws for both teams, a tie is also a possibility.

In terms of goals, the prediction is for over 1.5 goals in the match with an 81.58% chance. Most matches see under 3.5 goals with a probability of 68.95%.

In the last 5 home matches for Fribourg, both teams scored in 4 of them. This also occurred in 3 of Heidenheim’s last 5 away matches. The odds align, with a 55.26% probability of both teams finding the back of the net.

In summary, a potentially tight match with a predominant role for Fribourg. More than 1.5 goals are expected, and both teams are likely to score.

The potential number of goals

Freiburg has proven difficult to beat at home with only a 20% loss rate in the last 5 matches. However, they concede more goals (1.4 on average) than they score (0.8 on average).

Heidenheim has also shown resilience in their away games with just a 20% loss rate in the last 5 matches. They have a more prolific offensive play (1.4 goals on average) but their defense is slightly more porous (1.2 goals on average).

The probabilities favor Freiburg as the favorite with a 57.37% chance against Heidenheim. However, a draw seems likely between these two teams with a probability of 21.58%.

The last two matches of each team have seen plenty of goals. Therefore, a reasonable prediction would be to have over 1.5 goals (81.58% probability) but under 3.5 goals (68.95% probability).

There is a moderate chance (55.26%) that both teams will score. This could indicate a competitive and balanced match.

The safest bet, according to the numbers, would be “under 4.5 goals in the match” with a high probability of 89.47%.

These statistics could point to a prediction of Freiburg winning with fewer than 3.5 goals scored in the match.

However, there are never certainties in football, and it is crucial to consider many other factors before making a final decision.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, based on statistics and past performances, Fribourg appears to be the favorite to win the match, with a 57.37% probability of winning. However, a draw is also a possible outcome, given the high rate of draws in previous games for both teams. In terms of goals, we can expect a match with over 1.5 goals but probably less than 3.5 goals, with a high probability of both teams scoring.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that these predictions are based on probabilities and past statistics. Football is an unpredictable sport and it is crucial to consider various other factors before making a final bet. Therefore, make sure to think carefully and take into account all available information before making a betting decision.