Tipps SC Paderborn 07 SV Elversberg 2. Bundesliga 27/04/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Paderborn wins the match

1. General statistics favor Paderborn: according to match data, Paderborn has a 62.5% probability of winning, much higher than SV Elversberg’s 12.5%. This significant difference highlights Paderborn’s higher likelihood of victory.

2. Moreover, Paderborn has shown a stronger defensive performance at home compared to SV Elversberg away from home: on average, Paderborn concedes 1.6 goals per match at home, while SV Elversberg concedes 2.2 goals when playing away.

3. In terms of offensive performance at home, Paderborn has a superior attacking potential compared to SV Elversberg on the road: they score an average of 1.4 goals per match compared to SV Elversberg’s 1 goal. Despite their recent winless streak, they show some ability to score goals, which could be crucial for securing a victory.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

More than 2.5 goals in the match

1. The past statistics show that both teams have scored and conceded a relatively high number of goals in their recent matches. Specifically, Paderborn has conceded 8 goals in 5 home matches and SV Elversberg has scored 9 goals in 5 away matches, suggesting that both teams are likely to score in this match.

2. The offensive and defensive potential of each team also points to a high-scoring match. In particular, SV Elversberg has a defensive potential of 79% away from home, meaning they have a strong likelihood of conceding a goal in this match, which, combined with the number of goals previously scored by Paderborn at home, suggests that more than 2.5 goals will be scored.

3. The odds offered for the “Over 2.5 goals” prediction have a success probability of 62.5%, indicating that bettors consider this scenario likely. This level of confidence, based on market odds, adds weight to the argument that there will be more than 2.5 goals scored in this match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. The past performances of both teams indicate a tendency to both score and concede goals. At home, Paderborn has scored an average of 1.4 goals per match and conceded 1.6 goals per match. Away from home, SV Elversberg has scored 1 goal per match and conceded 2.2 goals per match on average. Therefore, both teams have the offensive and defensive capabilities to score and concede goals.

2. In the last 5 home matches of Paderborn, they have scored in 60% of the cases, highlighting their ability to score. Similarly, in the last 5 away matches of SV Elversberg, they have managed to score in every match except one.

3. The history of Paderborn’s home matches and SV Elversberg’s away matches also shows that both teams regularly score. In the majority of recent matches, both teams have managed to score. The results of past matches such as Paderborn 1 – 1 Karlsruhe, Paderborn 2 – 3 Hertha Berlin, St. Pauli 3 – 4 SV Elversberg, Greuther Furth 1 – 4 SV Elversberg further support this argument.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Under 3.5 goals in the match

Bet on the exact result

Paderborn 1-2 SV Elversberg

1. The analysis of SV Elversberg’s offensive potential indicates an average performance of 1 goal per away match, which tends to validate the prediction of their team scoring exactly 2 goals considering the gap from an average to a specific achievement.

2. Paderborn has a 57% home defensive potential, suggesting they are likely to concede one or two goals against SV Elversberg. Moreover, Paderborn’s recent home matches show some defensive vulnerability (8 goals conceded in 5 matches).

3. Despite SV Elversberg’s inferiority in terms of winning probability (12.5% against Paderborn’s 62.5%), this away team has managed to score a total of 9 goals in their last 5 matches, demonstrating some offensive efficiency that could challenge the odds and score more than one goal against Paderborn away.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Paderborn has not won any of their last 5 home matches, with 60% ending in a draw. They have scored 4 times and conceded 8 goals. On average, they score 1.4 goals and concede 1.6 goals per home match. Offensive power at 50%, defense at 57%.

SV Elversberg has won 60% of their last 5 away matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding the same. They score an average of 1 goal and concede 2.2 goals away from home. Offensive efficiency at 36%, defense at 79%.

Match probabilities: Paderborn win at 62.5% (odds at 1.87), draw at 25% (odds at 4.00), and Elversberg win at 12.5% (odds at 3.50).

Goals per match indicate high scores. Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.44 (62.5% success rate). Both teams to score at odds of 1.42 (50% success rate).

Paderborn’s recent home matches show a trend towards close scores, while Elversberg’s away matches vary.

A safe bet seems to be Paderborn win or draw at odds of 1.25 (87.5% success rate). Expect plenty of goals. Surprises are possible.

The potential number of goals

Paderborn, at home, struggles to win with no victories in 5 matches and 60% draws. They have conceded 8 goals and scored 4. Their offensive potential is 50% and defensive is 57%.

SV Elversberg, away, shows more wins with 60% success and no draws. 9 goals scored, 9 goals conceded. Their offensive potential is 36% and defensive is 79%.

This gives Paderborn a 62.5% chance of winning with odds at 1.87 and a 25% chance of a draw with odds at 4.00. SV Elversberg has only a 12.5% chance of winning with odds at 3.50.

Regarding the number of goals, there is an 87.5% chance of having over 1.5 goals in the match. More than 2.5 goals can be considered with a probability of 62.5% and odds at 1.44.

Finally, both teams have a 50% probability of scoring.

Based on these statistics, Paderborn seems to be the favorite despite their poor home performance. The number of goals could exceed 1.5. SV Elversberg needs to strengthen their defense to increase their chances of winning.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, statistics and recent performances lean towards Paderborn for this match, despite a disappointing series of results in their recent home games. With their strong defensive and offensive potential at home, it is likely that Paderborn will win the match. However, SV Elversberg, despite lower odds of winning, has shown offensive efficiency in their recent away matches and could surprise.

The forecast suggests that the match will be high-scoring, with a high probability of over 2.5 goals. The history of both teams indeed indicates a tendency to score and concede goals. The scenario where both teams score (BTTS: Yes) is therefore likely according to statistics.

As for the Value Bet, it lies in betting on under 3.5 goals in the match, a choice rationalized by the analysis of the recent performances of both teams.

Regarding the exact score, despite Paderborn’s favoritism, a surprise could come with a 1-2 result for SV Elversberg considering their recent offensive efficiency away from home.

Overall, while Paderborn is the favorite, caution is advised as football is an unpredictable sport and surprises could very well happen.