Tipps Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Ameliano Division Professional Apertura 12/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Sportivo Luqueno wins the match

1. Sportivo Luqueno has a higher probability of winning the match (51.06%) compared to Sportivo Ameliano (20.74%).
2. Sportivo Luqueno shows a defensive potential at home of 50% against Sportivo Ameliano’s offensive potential of 50% away, which increases Luqueno’s chances of winning.
3. Considering the last 5 matches of Sportivo Luqueno at home and Sportivo Ameliano away, Luqueno seems to have a more stable performance, despite losses, the score gaps remain narrow. In contrast, Sportivo Ameliano’s performances are more varied with wins, draws, and losses by larger goal differences.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Less than 2.5 goals in the match”

1. Sportivo Luqueno has a low home success rate and has only scored 2 goals in their last 5 matches, indicating a weak offensive potential.
2. Sportivo Ameliano, although slightly better performing away, remains limited in their ability to score with only 6 goals in their last 5 matches.
3. Statistics show that both teams have a low average of goals per match, 1.2 and 1.4 respectively, supporting the argument of a potentially low-scoring match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Offensive Performance: Sportivo Luqueno and Sportivo Ameliano have shown good attacking performance in their previous matches, with an average of 1.2 and 1.4 goals scored respectively. This suggests that both teams have the ability to score in their encounter.

2. Defensive Performance: Both teams have shown defensive weaknesses in their previous matches, conceding an average of 1.4 and 0.6 goals respectively. This increases the likelihood that both teams will concede a goal during the match.

3. Match History: By looking at the scores of the recent matches, it can be seen that both teams tend to score in their matches. For example, in their last 5 home matches, Sportivo Luqueno scored in 2 matches, while Sportivo Ameliano scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Sportivo Ameliano wins the match

Bet on the exact result

Sportivo Luqueno 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano

1. Sportivo Luqueno has a weak home performance with one win and four losses in the last five matches. However, Sportivo Luqueno often draws (80% of the time) and has a 50% defensive potential, which could limit the final score to 1.

2. Sportivo Ameliano shows good performances away from home, with a 40% win rate and 40% draws. They score an average of 1.4 goals on the road, so it is likely that they will score at least one goal. Their defensive potential is also low (21%), which may prevent them from keeping a clean sheet.

3. The success probabilities indicate that the most likely score of the match is under 2.5 goals with an 83.51% chance. Moreover, the probability of both teams scoring is 54.26%. These data support the prediction of a final score of 1-1.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Sportivo Luqueno, at home, shows a low win rate of 20%. However, they have managed to keep a clean sheet in 80% of the matches. Their record is balanced with 2 goals scored and 2 conceded.

In their away games, Sportivo Ameliano has a win rate of 40% and also a draw rate of 40%. They have scored 6 goals and conceded 7.

Regarding offensive and defensive performances, Sportivo Luqueno has an offensive potential of 43% and a defensive potential of 50%. On the other hand, Sportivo Ameliano, away from home, scores an average of 1.4 goals and concedes an average of 0.6 goals with an offensive potential of 50% and a defensive potential of 21%.

Speaking of probabilities, the chance of Sportivo Luqueno winning the match is 51.06%, while Sportivo Ameliano’s chance is 20.74%. The probability of a draw is 28.19%.

In terms of total goals, it is more likely to have over 1.5 goals in the match with a probability of 72.87%. The prediction for under 3.5 goals is 83.51%.

For both teams, there is a 54.26% chance of both teams scoring.

Considering these statistics, a favorable prediction could be “draw or Sportivo Luqueno win” with a probability of 79.26%. Another safe prediction could be “under 3.5 goals in the match” with a probability of 83.51%.

The potential number of goals

Sportivo Luqueno has a 20% home win rate and an 80% draw rate in 5 home matches. They have scored 2 goals and conceded 2. On the other hand, Sportivo Ameliano has a 40% win rate and a 40% draw rate in 5 away games, scoring 6 goals and conceding 7.

Sportivo Luqueno’s home attacking potential is 43% with a 50% defense, averaging 1.2 goals scored. Sportivo Ameliano, on the road, scores 1.4 goals with a 50% attacking potential and concedes on average 0.6 goals, maintaining a 21% defense.

The probability of a win for Sportivo Luqueno is 51.06%, offering odds of 1.80. On the other hand, Sportivo Ameliano has odds of 4.20 with a success probability of 20.74%.

A draw or a win for Sportivo Luqueno would have a 79.26% chance with odds of 1.16. A draw or a win for Sportivo Ameliano would have a 48.94% chance with odds of 1.95.

The probability of having more than 1.5 goals is 72.87% with odds of 1.36. The probability of both teams scoring is 54.26% with odds of 1.95.

Sportivo Luqueno’s recent home performance has shown relatively low scores. Sportivo Ameliano, on the other hand, has displayed a varied performance away from home with wins, defeats, and draws.

With this information, one can expect a probably close match with a possible total goals under 2.5.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, considering the statistics and recent performances of both teams, Sportivo Luqueno seems to have a slight edge to win the match due to their strong home performance, with a higher likelihood of success at 51.06%. However, Sportivo Ameliano, despite a lower probability of winning, has shown a strong away performance, which could turn the tables.

In terms of goals, uncertainty prevails. Sportivo Luqueno has a lower success rate at home but a reinforced defensive ability, while Sportivo Ameliano, despite a better offensive performance, lacks solidity in defense. With both teams capable of scoring, it is highly likely that the match will end with less than 2.5 goals, with a probability of 83.51%.

The safest bet seems to be “draw or Sportivo Luqueno win” with a probability of 79.26%, followed by “under 3.5 goals in the match” given the 83.51% probability. However, it is essential to always consider that each match is unpredictable, and these predictions are purely statistical forecasts.