Tipps ST Mirren Kilmarnock Premiership 11/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Kilmarnock wins the match.

1. The statistics of the last matches show that Kilmarnock tend to draw or win when they play away. In fact, they have won or drawn in 60% of their last 5 away matches.

2. Comparing the average goals, it is noted that St. Mirren has a higher average of goals conceded than their opponent (1.8 against 1), which indicates that their defense is less solid and gives a higher chance for Kilmarnock to score goals.

3. The calculated probabilities show that the scenario “Draw or Kilmarnock wins the match” has the highest success probability, at 65.08%, making it a wise betting option.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The recent match statistics (last 5 matches) show a trend of few goals being scored. St. Mirren has scored a total of 6 goals and Kilmarnock 7 goals, giving an average of 1.3 goals per match for each team.
2. The goal concession statistics for each team in their last 5 matches are also low. St. Mirren has conceded a total of 8 goals and Kilmarnock 9 goals, resulting in an average of less than 2 goals conceded per match for each team.
3. The statistical probability of less than 2.5 goals in the match is 1.60, indicating a low-scoring match scenario.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No.

1. Low offensive potential from both teams: In their last 5 games, the offensive potential of St. Mirren and Kilmarnock is 43% and 36% respectively. This indicates a difficulty in scoring in their previous matches.

2. High defensive potential: St. Mirren’s defensive potential is 64%, showing their ability to defend and prevent the opposing team from scoring.

3. Previous match history: Looking at the recent home games of St. Mirren and away games of Kilmarnock, it appears that in several of these matches, only one team managed to score. This strengthens the likelihood that both teams will not score in the next match.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw.

Bet on the exact result

St. Mirren 1-1 Kilmarnock

1. The statistics show that St. Mirren and Kilmarnock have a relatively balanced record in their recent matches, in terms of wins, losses, and draws: St. Mirren wins 40% of its home matches and draws 60% of the time, while Kilmarnock wins 20% of its away matches and draws 40% of the time. This suggests that a draw is a likely outcome.

2. Both teams have a similar average of goals scored and conceded per match: St. Mirren averages 1.2 goals scored at home and 1.8 goals conceded, while Kilmarnock averages 1 goal scored away and 1 goal conceded. These averages are close to 1-1, making this score possible.

3. The probabilities of different match outcomes indicate some uncertainty, with almost balanced chances for all results (St. Mirren win: 34.92%, draw: 27.51%, Kilmarnock win: 37.57%). Additionally, the probability of both teams scoring is 49.74%, which is almost 50%. All these factors could suggest a fairly balanced match that could end in a 1-1 score line.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

St. Mirren has achieved a 40% win rate and 60% draw rate in their last 5 home matches. They have conceded more goals (8) than they have scored (6).

Kilmarnock is less effective away from home, with only a 20% win rate. They have scored 7 goals while conceding 9 goals in their last 5 away matches.

St. Mirren’s offensive potential at home is 43% and their defensive potential is 64%. For Kilmarnock away, these numbers are 36% for both.

As for the match result, the probability is 34.92% for a St. Mirren win (odds at 2.70), 27.51% for a draw (odds at 3.10), and 37.57% for a Kilmarnock win (odds at 2.75).

If we combine a draw or a win, St. Mirren has a probability of 62.43% (odds at 1.45) and Kilmarnock of 65.08% (odds at 1.47).

In terms of goals, there is a 70.37% chance of more than 1.5 goals (odds at 1.42), and 42.33% for more than 2.5 goals (odds at 2.30).

The probability of both teams scoring is almost balanced, at 49.74% (odds at 1.95) versus 50.26% (odds at 1.83) for both teams not scoring.

St. Mirren’s recent form at home shows an alternation of wins and losses, while Kilmarnock’s away results are more irregular.

With this data, the match seems very open with a slight preference for a score with at least 1.5 goals. However, we advise considering all this information before placing your bets.

The potential number of goals

St. Mirren has shown a decent performance at home, winning 2 out of their last 5 matches. They have scored a total of 6 goals, averaging 1.2 goals per match. However, their defense has struggled, conceding 8 goals, averaging 1.8 goals per match. Their offensive potential is at 43% and defensive potential at 64%.

Kilmarnock, on the other hand, has struggled away from home. They have only won 1 out of their last 5 matches, scoring a total of 7 goals (1 goal per match). Their defense has been solid, also conceding 1 goal per match. Their offensive and defensive potentials are both at 36%.

As for the predictions, the match seems tight. Kilmarnock has a slight advantage with a 37.57% chance of winning compared to St. Mirren’s 34.92%. The probability of a draw is 27.51%.

In terms of goals, less than 1.5 goals in the match is possible, but more than 1.5 goals in the match seems probable with a 70.37% chance. The statistics indicate less than 4.5 goals in the match with a very high probability of 97.88%.

Finally, both teams are as likely to score as not to score with probabilities of 49.74% and 50.26% respectively.

Based on these data, the most reliable prediction seems to be “less than 4.5 goals in the match” due to its high probability of success.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, this match between St. Mirren and Kilmarnock looks tight and could potentially end in a draw. Kilmarnock shows a slight superiority, especially in away games, giving a higher probability of a win or draw for them. Additionally, both teams have shown a low offensive potential in their recent matches, suggesting a low score, probably less than 2.5 goals in total.

Among the discussed bets, “draw or Kilmarnock win” seems to be a relatively safe option, while the prediction of “under 2.5 goals in the match” is also worth considering. At the same time, the “draw” offers an interesting value for those looking for a greater reward by taking a calculated risk.

For seasoned players seeking a riskier but potentially lucrative option, a bet on the exact score of 1-1 could prove to be interesting. However, it is crucial to understand that, although these predictions are based on detailed analysis, the outcome of all sports bets is never 100% certain. It is therefore advisable to bet responsibly.