Tipps St Patrick's Athl. Derry City Premier Division 17/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Based on data analysis, my prediction would be: Derry City to win the match or a draw.

1. There is a higher probability of success (71.2%) for the “Draw or Derry City wins the match” scenario compared to the 60.21% of “Draw or St Patrick’s Athletic wins the match”. This indicates that Derry City statistically has a better chance of either winning or drawing.

2. Analyzing the statistics of their recent matches, Derry City seems to have a better defense away from home, conceding only 0.4 goals on average per match compared to St Patrick’s Athletic who concedes 1.4 goals per match at home. This gives Derry City an advantage.

3. Furthermore, Derry City has a higher offensive potential away from home (50%) than St Patrick’s Athletic at home (29%). This gives Derry City more chances of scoring goals and securing either a win or a draw.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Under 2.5 goals in the match

1. The recent performances of both teams show a trend towards a low number of goals: On average, St Patrick’s Athletic scores 0.8 goals per home match and Derry City scores 1.4 goals per away match, suggesting a potential total of 2.2 goals per match.

2. The defensive statistics of both teams indicate a potentially tight match: St Patrick’s Athletic concedes 1.4 goals per home match while Derry City only concedes 0.4 goals away, indicating a solid defensive commitment from both teams.

3. Finally, the match history indicates that both teams generally have low-scoring encounters. Looking at the last five home matches of St Patrick’s Athletic and the last five away matches of Derry City, the majority of these matches have had fewer than 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No.

1. St Patrick’s Athletic has a home offensive potential of only 29% and a defensive capability of 50%, making it unlikely for them to score a goal.

2. Derry City has an away offensive potential of only 50% and a defensive capability of 14%, indicating a struggle to score goals on the road.

3. In their last 5 away matches, Derry City failed to score in two of them, suggesting a lack of attacking efficiency.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Derry City wins the match

Bet on the exact result

St Patrick’s Athletic 1-1 Derry City

1. The probability of a draw is quite high for both teams, with St Patrick’s Athletic recording a rate of 20% and Derry City recording a rate of 60% in their last 5 matches respectively.

2. The goal statistics of these teams also support the prediction of a 1-1 draw. St Patrick’s Athletic averages 0.8 goals scored per home match and concedes an average of 1.4 goals per match. On the other hand, Derry City averages 1.4 goals scored per away match and concedes an average of 0.4 goals per match.

3. The match result probabilities also support this prediction. By combining the probability of a draw or St Patrick’s Athletic winning the match (60.21%) and the probability of a draw or Derry City winning the match (71.2%), we get a significant probability that supports a draw. Furthermore, the probabilities also support the exact score of 1-1 as the “Over 1.5 goals in the match” has a success probability of 69.11% and the “Under 2.5 goals in the match” has a significant probability.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

St Patrick’s is in good form at home, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 10, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per match. However, the attacking potential is low at 29% while the defense stands at 50%.

Derry City struggles to win away from home, with a 20% win rate in 5 matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 7, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded per match. The attacking potential is at 50%, and the defensive at 14%.

The probability of St Patrick’s winning is estimated at 28.8% and that of Derry City at 39.79%. A draw seems more likely at 31.41%.

The bet “Under 1.5 goals in the match” at 2.60 could be tempting given St Patrick’s low attacking potential and Derry City’s strong defense.

Recent matches have shown generally low scores, making the bet “Both teams to not score” with a probability of 52.36% and odds of 1.75 an interesting choice.

In summary, a tight match is expected with few goals, a draw or a Derry City win being the most probable outcomes.

The potential number of goals

St Patrick’s Athletic tends to win at home. They have won 60% of their last 5 home matches. However, they have conceded more goals (10) than they have scored (8).

Derry City seems to be a strong competitor away from home. They have won or drawn in 80% of their last 5 away matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 7.

On average, St Patrick’s Athletic at home scores less (0.8 goals per match) and concedes more (1.4 goals per match). Derry City away from home scores more (1.4 goals per match) and concedes less (0.4 goals per match).

The probability of Derry City winning the match is 39.79% with an attractive odd of 2.25. However, placing a combined bet on a draw or Derry City gives a probability of 71.2% for odds of 1.30.

For the number of goals, less than 3.5 goals in the match is very likely (84.29%). Moreover, less than 1.5 goals has odds of 2.60 while more than 1.5 goals has a probability of 69.11% for odds of 1.45.

Finally, there is an almost equal chance of both teams scoring or not, with a slight advantage for them not to score (52.36% probability).

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, the analysis of this Premier Division match between St Patrick’s Athletic and Derry City, scheduled for May 17, 2024, shows a tendency towards a low-scoring match. Both teams have a strong defensive tradition and tend to score few goals in their respective matches, suggesting a total goal count in the match below 2.5.

Derry City appears to have a slight advantage in terms of recent performance, offensive and defensive potential, indicating they have a higher chance of winning the match or ending it in a draw. However, the most likely outcome seems to be a draw, as evidenced by the exact score prediction of 1-1.

The BTTS (Both Teams to Score) bet suggests that both teams are unlikely to score, reflecting both their recent limited offensive potential and solid defensive performance. Derry City represents an interesting value bet, given their superior offensive and defensive potential and recent statistics.

Overall, caution is advised for bettors as the match seems to involve many variables and high probabilities of outcomes. The data indicate some potential betting opportunities, but the match outcome remains uncertain and difficult to predict with certainty.