Tipps Stoke City Portsmouth Championship 02/10/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Stoke City or draw.

1. Stoke City has a better defensive potential: Compared to Portsmouth, Stoke City has shown a better defensive potential at home. They have conceded fewer goals on average with a rate of 50%, compared to 71% for Portsmouth away.
2. Stoke City’s home stability: Stoke City has a good non-defeat ratio at home. They have won or drawn in 80% of their last 5 home matches.
3. Portsmouth’s poor away performances: Portsmouth has poor performances away from home, having not won any of their last 5 away matches. This makes a favorable result for Stoke City or a draw more likely.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

“Under 2.5”

1. The teams of Stoke City and Portsmouth have respective averages of 0.6 and 0.8 goals per match in their last 5 encounters, resulting in a combined average of 1.4 goals per match, which is below 2.5.
2. The probability of both teams not scoring is 100% based on the provided data, significantly limiting the chances of a total of 2.5 goals or more in the match.
3. By looking at the last 5 home matches of Stoke City and the last 5 away matches of Portsmouth, out of the 10 matches, only 3 have had 3 goals or more, indicating a low number of goals expected in the upcoming match between the two teams.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: No

1. Offensive performances: Stoke City and Portsmouth have moderate offensive performances. Stoke City has scored an average of 0.6 goals per game and Portsmouth has an average of 0.8 goals per game. These numbers are relatively low compared to more offensive teams, indicating a match with few goals can be expected.

2. Defensive performances: Stoke City and Portsmouth have shown some defensive strength. Stoke City has conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game and Portsmouth has conceded 2 goals on average per game. Both teams seem to have a rather defensive approach, which could limit the number of goals scored by the opposing team.

3. Recent match trends: The recent home matches of Stoke City and away matches of Portsmouth have shown a trend towards low-scoring games. In the last 5 matches, Stoke City failed to score in 20% of cases and Portsmouth did not score in any of its recent away matches. These elements show that both teams struggle to score when playing at home and away, respectively.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw.

Bet on the exact result

Stoke City 1-1 Portsmouth

1. Recent Draw Stats: Stoke City and Portsmouth have the highest number of draws in their respective last 5 matches, both at 60%. This indicates a strong tendency to balance out their opponents, which could lead to a draw in their encounter.

2. Low Offensive Performance: Stoke City has a low offensive rate (0.6 goals per match on average at home) and Portsmouth also has a low offensive rate (0.8 goals per match on average away). Additionally, the offensive potentials of Stoke City and Portsmouth are 21% and 29% respectively, which is quite low. Therefore, both teams might struggle to score more than one goal in their encounter.

3. Score History: Looking at Stoke City’s recent home matches and Portsmouth’s away matches, a 1-1 scoreline is quite common. Stoke City drew 1-1 against Fleetwood Town and Portsmouth also drew 1-1 against Milton Keynes Dons. Thus, a 1-1 draw between Stoke City and Portsmouth is very likely.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Stoke City struggles at home, having won only one of their last 5 matches. During these games, they scored 4 goals and conceded 5. These numbers indicate a limited offense and a defense that gives away opportunities.

As for Portsmouth, their away performance is even more concerning. In their last 5 matches, they have not won any. They scored 7 goals but conceded 8, highlighting a fragile defense.

Stoke City’s home offensive potential is at 21% with a defense at 50%. Portsmouth, on the other hand, has an away offensive potential of 29% with a defense at 71%. The success rate for both teams is very low.

The match history shows that both teams struggle to keep a clean sheet. However, Stoke City’s home matches and Portsmouth’s away matches are typically low-scoring.

In this scenario, it seems more probable to have a match with less than 3.5 goals. In the event that both teams score, the chances of success are extremely low. Therefore, a match where both teams do not score seems like the safest prediction.

The potential number of goals

Stoke City has a low home win rate, with only 20% of victories in their last 5 matches. They concede more goals than they score, with an average of 1.4 goals conceded per match. Their defensive potential is weak at 50%, while their offensive capability is only at 21%.

Portsmouth, when playing away, doesn’t seem to be performing any better. They have never won in their last 5 away matches, but still manage to score an average of 0.8 goals per match. With a defensive potential at 71%, they concede more than they score, with an average of 2 goals conceded per match.

These data suggest a defensive game from both sides, particularly from Portsmouth. Therefore, it seems unlikely to have more than 3.5 goals during the match, with a 100% probability for less than 3.5 goals. The probability of both teams not scoring is also at 100%.

In summary, the Stoke City vs Portsmouth match could be a low-scoring one, where defense prevails over offense. This analysis does not guarantee the result, but it provides an insight based on the recent performances of both teams.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, this match between Stoke City and Portsmouth seems to be characterized by strong defenses and weak attacks. Stoke City is favored to win or draw, with a very low goal prediction (under 2.5 goals). The data suggests that it is very unlikely that both teams will score. For a slightly riskier but potentially more lucrative bet, a draw would be an interesting option given the high percentage of draws for both teams in their last 5 matches. In terms of exact score, a 1-1 draw is the most likely prediction. However, it is important to keep in mind that while these predictions are based on expert analysis and past statistics, football remains an unpredictable sport and anything can happen on match day.