Tipps Tondela Nacional Segunda Liga 12/05/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

“Nacional wins the match”

1. Nacional has shown a better performance in the last 5 matches, notably with a 60% win rate compared to Tondela’s 20%.

2. Nacional has demonstrated a higher offensive potential than Tondela, averaging 2.6 goals scored per away match, as opposed to Tondela’s 1 goal per home match.

3. The odds favor Nacional, with a 41.45% probability of winning the match, compared to a 22.8% probability for a Tondela victory.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

Less than 2.5 goals in the match.

1. The past home match statistics for Tondela show a low offensive output with only 3 goals scored in 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals per match.
2. Nacional’s away games also indicate a trend towards low-scoring matches, with an average of 2.6 goals scored per match.
3. The probability percentages offered for “Under 2.5 goals in the match” (1.83) are higher than those for “Over 2.5 goals in the match” (1.90), suggesting that past statistics and performances point towards a low-scoring match.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Both teams have a recent history of scoring goals: Tondela has scored goals in 60% of its last 5 home matches, while Nacional has scored goals in all of its last 5 away matches.

2. Defensive statistics also show that both teams concede goals: Tondela concedes an average of 1.2 goals per match and Nacional also concedes 0.8 goals per match away.

3. The ‘Both teams to score’ betting option has a high success probability (60.1%) according to the betting probabilities, indicating that there is a good chance that both teams will score.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

“Nacional wins the match.”

Bet on the exact result

Tondela 1-2 Nacional

1. Based on the statistics of Nacional’s recent away matches, they win in 60% of cases with an average of 2.6 goals per game, which favors a score in their favor, especially since predictively they have a 41.45% chance of winning the match.

2. On the other hand, Tondela’s performance at home is somewhat mixed, with only a 20% win rate and an average goals scored rate of 1 goal per match. However, it should be noted that they have managed to score at least one goal in every match, supporting the hypothesis of a final score of 1-2.

3. The third argument concerns the defensive potential of each team, Nacional has a defensive efficiency rate of 29%, which means they have a relatively high probability of conceding a goal. As for Tondela, their defensive efficiency rate is 43%, which suggests they could let in more than one goal, thus reinforcing the prediction of 1-2 in favor of Nacional.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Tondela is not performing well at home, with only a 20% win rate. They have scored 3 goals and conceded 4 in their last 5 matches. On average, they score 1 goal and concede 1.2 goals per match, indicating a somewhat shaky defense.

On the other hand, Nacional is doing well away from home with a 60% win rate. They have scored 7 goals, conceding the same number. They have an impressive average of 2.6 goals scored per match and only concede 0.8 goals.

Bookmakers’ odds indicate a 41.45% chance of Nacional winning (odds at 2.05) against 22.8% for Tondela (odds at 3.40). The draw is priced at 3.50 with a 35.75% chance.

As for goals in the match, the odds for over 1.5 goals are 1.30 with a success probability of 73.06%. The odds for both teams to score are 1.75 with a probability of 60.1%.

In conclusion, Nacional is more successful and productive offensively, but Tondela might put up a fight. A match with one or two goals seems likely.

The potential number of goals

Tondela at home has had a poor recent performance with just one win in five matches and a total of three goals scored. Their defense has conceded more goals than they have scored, with four goals conceded.

Nacional, playing away, has had a strong performance with three wins in five matches. They have scored seven goals and also conceded seven.

Tondela seems to be struggling both offensively and defensively, with success rates of 36% and 43% respectively. Nacional, on the other hand, excels in attack with a 93% success rate, but has an average defense with a 29% success rate.

Bookmakers predict a Nacional win with a probability of 41.45% and odds of 2.05. The draw has a probability of 35.75% and odds of 3.50.

There is a 73.06% chance of more than 1.5 goals in the match. Less than 3.5 goals have a 74.61% chance of occurring.

There is a 60.1% chance that both teams will score, so I would recommend betting on “Both Teams to Score” at odds of 1.75.

In summary, Nacional seems to be the favorite due to their better recent offensive performance, although Tondela has the advantage of playing at home. A match with goals from both sides is more likely.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

In conclusion, Nacional appears as the most likely to win the match against Tondela. By analyzing recent performances, statistics, and bookmakers’ odds, Nacional stands out for its superior offensive performance and higher win rate, especially in away games. However, we must also consider Tondela’s potential to score, despite their defensive deficits.

The forecast of “under 2.5 goals in the match” seems to be a wise choice considering both teams’ statistics and the odds offered. Furthermore, a bet on “both teams to score” is likely to be successful, given the recent history of both teams.

The most interesting betting value lies in a Nacional victory, thanks to their obvious offensive superiority. The predicted exact score of 1-2 in favor of Nacional could be a bet to consider, especially as it reflects the respective strengths and weaknesses of both teams.

In any case, it is important to bet responsibly and keep in mind that all bets involve risks.