Tipps Toronto FC Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer 14/07/2024

Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?

Draw or Toronto wins the match.

1. Toronto’s home form: Toronto seems to have a good ability to avoid defeat at home, with 80% of their last 5 matches ending in a draw. Although their win rate is relatively low (20%), it is noteworthy that they have scored goals in all their recent home matches.

2. Toronto’s defensive strength: Toronto has a defensive potential of 93% in their last 5 home matches, meaning that the opposition has struggled to score goals. At the same time, the Philadelphia Union has a weaker attacking potential away from home, with only a 43% offensive potential.

3. Betting probability: The bet on a draw or Toronto to win has a success probability of 66.42%, indicating that the odds are more in favor of Toronto not losing the match. Compared to this, the bet on a draw or Philadelphia Union to win has a lower success probability of 59.7%.

Over/Under 2,5: Which bet ?

More than 2.5 goals in the match

1. The average of goals conceded by Toronto at home and goals scored by Philadelphia away totals 3.2 goals per match, which is higher than 2.5 goals.
2. The recent match history of Toronto at home and Philadelphia away shows a trend towards high scores, with an average of over 2.5 goals per match for each team.
3. The probability for the outcome “Over 2.5 goals in the match” is 58.21%, which is a relatively high rate, indicating a greater likelihood of the match ending with over 2.5 goals.

BTTS: Will both teams score ?

Both teams to score: Yes

1. Goal statistics: In their last 5 matches, both Toronto and Philadelphia Union have an average of goals scored and conceded exceeding 1, indicating a trend towards high-scoring matches and therefore a higher probability that both teams will score in the next match.

2. Offensive and defensive potential: The teams have shown significant offensive and defensive potential in their last 5 matches, with percentages of 21% and 43% in offensive capabilities, and 93% and 71% in defensive capabilities, respectively. These figures suggest that both teams have a good chance of scoring against each other.

3. Previous match results: The recent matches of both teams have seen results where both teams scored. In all previous matches, except for one, both teams have found the back of the net, reinforcing the assumption that this will be the case in their next encounter.

Which bet offers an interesting value bet ?

Draw: 3.75

Bet on the exact result

Toronto 1-2 Philadelphia Union

1. Toronto has historically struggled at home, winning only 20% of their matches, while Philadelphia Union has averaged just over a win during the same period, giving them a slight edge.

2. Philadelphia Union has a better offense and defense compared to Toronto. They score an average of 1.2 goals per match (compared to 0.6 for Toronto) and concede an average of 2 goals per match (compared to 2.6 for Toronto). Therefore, they have a better chance of scoring more goals and winning the match.

3. The historical scores of previous matches between these two teams show a trend where Philadelphia has a slight advantage, with scores similar to the one we predicted. This supports the prediction of a 2-1 win in favor of Philadelphia.

Game Analysis and Key Facts

Team Form

Toronto struggles to win matches at home. In 5 games, only one victory has been achieved, with four draws. The goals scored/conceded ratio is negative with 14 goals scored and 15 conceded.

Philadelphia Union has a similar performance away from home, with only one win out of four games. With 17 goals scored and 21 conceded, their record is not impressive.

Toronto’s defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game. Offensively, the performance is more mixed with only 0.6 goals per game.

Philadelphia Union has a stronger offensive force, scoring 1.2 goals per game. However, their defense remains a concern, conceding an average of 2 goals per game.

From a probabilistic standpoint, betting on Toronto would bring the most return in case of victory, with odds of 2.15 for a 40.3% chance. A safer bet would be a draw or a Toronto win, at odds of 1.36 for a 66.42% chance.

But beware, teams like exciting matches. More than 1.5 goals have been scored in 76.12% of recent cases. And in over half of the matches (55.22%), both teams manage to score.

In conclusion, I would predict a match with goals from both sides, potentially in favor of Toronto at home.

The potential number of goals

Toronto, when playing at home, has a low likelihood of winning (20%), but a high draw rate (80%). Their defense, however, appears vulnerable with 15 goals conceded in 5 matches.

On the other hand, Philadelphia Union has won and drawn in 20% of their away games. They have scored more goals than Toronto (17 goals), but also have a leakier defense (21 goals conceded).

On average, Toronto scores 0.6 goals per home game, while Philadelphia scores twice that away from home. Toronto’s defense is more problematic, conceding an average of 2.6 goals compared to Philadelphia’s 2.

Based on probabilities, Toronto is more likely to win the match (40.3%) than Philadelphia (33.58%). A draw is less probable (26.12%).

Looking at total goals, it’s more likely to see over 1.5 goals in the match (76.12%). Similarly, the most likely scenario is under 4.5 goals in this match (85.82%).

One thing to note: both teams are more likely to score (55.22%) than in a match where both teams do not score (44.78%).

In summary, Toronto has the better odds of winning the match, but both teams are likely to score. It’s also highly probable to see a match with over 1.5 goals but under 4.5 goals.

Our conclusions and predictions for this match

Taking all these factors into consideration, it appears that the Toronto team has the advantage in the upcoming match, particularly due to their solidified defensive performance and strong tendency to avoid defeat at home. However, both teams have high rates of goals scored and conceded, suggesting the possibility of an eventful and high-scoring match, therefore we suggest a safe bet on “over 2.5 goals in the match.”

The enticing odds of 3.75 for a draw bolster the idea that this scenario has a good likelihood of occurring, given the high percentage of draws Toronto has experienced in their previous home matches.

Statistics further suggest that both teams are likely to score during the game, another potentially profitable bet to consider.

Lastly, despite Toronto’s poor home performance, predicting a precise score that favors Philadelphia (2-1) may be a bold but potentially lucrative bet. However, it is advisable to bet with caution, taking into account the ever-changing and unpredictable factors that always influence the outcome of a football match.

Overall, the match between Toronto and Philadelphia Union promises to be exciting and full of action, offering many interesting opportunities for bettors.